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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#904428 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 24.Sep.2017)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea