|#904535 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 25.Sep.2017)|
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017
While Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the
GOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the
cirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of
the center. This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by
an upper-low southwest of the hurricane. The SAB, TAFB, and
Advanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so
80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds.
Lee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at
2 kt. As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the
hurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest
on Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Starting in about
three days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast,
accelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted
some toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed
global and hurricane model guidance.
The moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool
water under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly.
After Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may
restrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will
reach major hurricane status. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM,
and COAMPS guidance.
Lee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been
available about its wind radii. The official size forecast
anticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane
force wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 30.8N 49.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH