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| #905690 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 PM 04.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 82.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 82.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible. Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
