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| #909443 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:05 AM 07.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Thunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern side of Rina. However, the center remains partially exposed due to southwesterly shear. Although the overall convective pattern is more organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue to support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. The environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly supportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate shear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs. In about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and become post-tropical. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus. Rina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to accelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Rina should move rather rapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern Atlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only small changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC prediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range. The storm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 32.4N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
