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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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| #909567 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:47 AM 08.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 Rina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with satellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure. Still, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately warm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core. Thus, Rina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the initial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates. Little change in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection within the next 24 hours over chilly waters. The system should become embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in a day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland. No changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt. A continued acceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight as Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. The cyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday and east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow. The westward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast is still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that direction in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 39.4N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 42.2N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 47.1N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 10/0000Z 52.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
