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#931928 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 07.Jul.2018)
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the depression a
few hours ago and found that the circulation is still somewhat
elongated with a minimum pressure of 1015 mb. The plane measured
flight-level winds which support an initial intensity of
30 kt. These winds were confined to a convective band south of the
center. The satellite presentation has not improved very much since
the morning advisory. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and
in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days.
Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual
strengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm within the next 12 hours or so. Additional intensification
is anticipated when the cyclone moves toward the northeast over the
open Atlantic as indicated by most of the models. The cyclone will
most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics over
cold waters by the end of the forecast period.

The depression continues to be embedded within very weak steering
currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days.
After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast
with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of
an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance continues to clearly
indicate the cyclone`s slow drift during the next 2 days, and
unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast
thereafter. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the
guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model
consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the cyclone will not approach
the coast and that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds
will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings
are required at this time, however, interests along the North
Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 32.9N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 33.0N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 33.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 32.9N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 48.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila