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| #936217 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 15.Aug.2018) TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
