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| #936252 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 15.Aug.2018) TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this afternoon, but there has been little change in the overall organization of the subtropical storm. The satellite intensity estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. As a result, Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom in 3 to 4 days. Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown |
