F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#940700 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 17.Sep.2018)
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018

A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the
estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced
eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance
indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should
persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though
the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong
shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone
to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be
surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that.
The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
close to the HWRF model guidance.

The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat
difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain
090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level
high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone
should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward
around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast
is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and
not too different from the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch