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| #940741 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 17.Sep.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining into the circulation. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a little faster than the previous advisory. The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to the previous official forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 34.0N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto |
