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#96L odds now down to just 10% per NHC, as upper-level winds and interaction with the Greater Antilles has been too much to handle
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 35 (Michael) , Major: 35 (Michael) Florida - Any: 35 (Michael) Major: 35 (Michael)
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#941503 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 23.Sep.2018)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized.
The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems
likely that a closed circulation may no longer exist. However, we
are maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to
better assess the low-level circulation. The depression continues
to produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined
to the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about
35 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly
wind shear. These hostile winds and dry air should cause the
depression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or
tonight. The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move
slowly west-northwestward for another day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi