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| #941983 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 26.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 Strengthening vertical shear is beginning to take its toll on Kirk, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the deep convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb, with maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt and believable SFMR winds as high as 44 kt. Based on these wind data, Kirk`s initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. Vertical shear is forecast to increase further, reaching over 30 kt in about 24 hours, which should cause Kirk to continue weakening over the next day or two. And, based on the latest global model guidance, the cyclone could open up into a trough any time after passing by the Lesser Antilles. The new NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one to account for the lower initial intensity, and it continues to closely follow the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA guidance. Dissipation is now shown by day 4, but as mentioned above, this could occur a lot sooner. Kirk appears to have slowed down just a little, with an initial motion toward the west-northwest, or 285/14 kt. Ridging to the north should maintain Kirk on this general trajectory, with perhaps just a slight deceleration as it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea. There are some speed differences among the models, with the ECMWF showing a weaker and faster system, while the GFS shows a slightly stronger and slower system. The NHC track forecast is between these two solutions and is closest to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 13.6N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.1N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 15.6N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 16.0N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
