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Tracking #94L in the SW Carib likely to produce very heavy rains over C America this coming week and a Wave nearing NE coast of S America
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Michael) , Major: 4 (Michael) Florida - Any: 4 (Michael) Major: 4 (Michael)
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#943832 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 10.Oct.2018)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Leslie
has a large and ragged banded eye feature with deep convection most
organized over the northern semicircle. Since the Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, the
initial wind speed is held at that value. Leslie has another day or
two to strengthen while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
over marginally warm waters. After that time, an increase in shear
and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is possible that
Leslie could become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but confidence
is not high on that occurring. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and it lies at the high end of
the model guidance.

Leslie is now moving southward at 9 kt in the flow on the southwest
side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A slower south-
southeastward motion is expected during the day today as the
trough pulls away. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight
as another trough approaches Leslie from the northwest, and that
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early
this weekend. After that time, the models are coming into better
agreement in showing Leslie being left behind and moving
southwestward on Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is adjusted southward at days 3
to 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Although the
deterministic models are in better agreement this cycle, there is
still a lot of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members and
confidence in the track forecast remains fairly low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.6N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi