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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#9629 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 22.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IVAN. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
IVAN COULD RELAX SOME...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THE CENTER
SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 27.4N 90.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 28.4N 91.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 29.5N 94.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING