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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#9719 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 23.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z THU SEP 23 2004

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 92.7W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 92.7W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.6N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.4N 97.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 97.8W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 92.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART