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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#9742 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:38 PM 23.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 70A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...IVAN WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT
TEXAS.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...29.3 N... 92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART