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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Barry) , Major: 312 (Michael) Florida - Any: 312 (Michael) Major: 312 (Michael)
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#974544 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 13.Jul.2019)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast
from Cameron to Sabine Pass.

The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. Barry is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will
move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana
tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to
the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean
Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches.
Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western
portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening
flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of
the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm
Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts
to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of
the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven