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| #979573 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 26.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge of the cyclone`s deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern quadrant. The low level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters. This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the cyclone. After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger system embedded in the westerlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 31.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch |
