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| #979640 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 27.Aug.2019) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The cloud pattern has improved a little since yesterday, and in fact, it looks more tropical on satellite today. The depression, however, continues to be sheared with the low-level center to the north of the convection. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear currently affecting the depression is expected to continue, and only a small increase in intensity is anticipated in the next couple of days. After that time, the shear will increase as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west, and the circulation will be over cooler waters. This should favor the cyclone to become extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has been moving very little, and it appears that during the past couple hours it has been meandering northward at about 2 kt. No significant motion is expected today with a slow north-northwestward or northward drift beginning tonight. In about a day, the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should steer the cyclone northeastward with increasing forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multimodel consensus TVCA and not significantly different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.2N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 31.3N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 32.9N 71.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 35.0N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 44.5N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
