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| #980756 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 03.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Surf City, North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City NC to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Savannah River to Surf City NC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required tonight and Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical Storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday, with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
