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| #980854 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 04.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Allowing for some undersampling by the instrument, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours. Fernand`s motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer ridge that extends across the entire southern United States, followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies down the middle of track guidance envelope. Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any additional strengthening. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 23.1N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 24.0N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart |
