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| #981158 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 05.Sep.2019) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 49A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...EYE OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 78.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of Georgia. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of South Santee River, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River SC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina this afternoon, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h). A buoy operated by the Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring Program 15 miles northeast of the entrance to Charleston Harbor recently reported a wind gust of 92 mph (148 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft and buoy data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 reported a minimum pressure of 959.4 mb (28.33 inches) as the eye passed over it. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting other portions of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Several tornadoes have been reported across portions of eastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
