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| #981597 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 08.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. There are no observations from the area southeast of the center where the strongest winds are likely to be. However, the winds at the nearby land stations are gradually decreasing. Based on this and some decay in the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. The global models forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone is now moving northeastward or 035/22 kt. This general motion should continue through this evening, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone`s life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland, and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread into western Newfoundland this afternoon. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 50.0N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
