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| #983387 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 21.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so its possible that Jerry`s winds are actually a little lower. Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the 5-day period. Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little change in Jerry`s intensity for the next couple days, and I can`t rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
