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| #983784 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 23.Sep.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that Jerry`s maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt. Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the GFS and ECMWF global models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
