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| #984183 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 26.Sep.2019) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049 indicate that Karen`s circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The deterioration of Karen`s structure suggests that weakening is imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by day 5. Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours, and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5. This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.2N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
