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| #989848 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:45 AM 19.Nov.2019) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern of the disturbance has improved since yesterday, and that the low has become well-defined. In addition, a late-arriving ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed 35-38 kt winds extending 90 n mi from the center in the northeastern quadrant. This pass also revealed that the low was nearly closed at the surface, and since the scatterometer may not have resolved the small scale of the low-level center it is likely that the surface low is indeed closed. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Sebastian with an initial advisory intensity of 40 kt. The depression will not be in an ideal environment for significant intensification, as it will be battling dry air to its west and about 20 kt of northwesterly shear for the next couple of days. However, due to the presence of an upper trough to the west of the system, a diffluent environment aloft may aid in some slight strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, the depression will begin to interact with an approaching cold front, and some additional intensification may occur due to baroclinic processes. The cyclone is then expected to become absorbed by the front in about 48 hours. The various intensity guidance solutions are in decent agreement, and the official forecast is near the mean of these forecasts. There are some timing variations among the models on when the cyclone will become absorbed by the front, and it is possible that the depression could be absorbed sooner than indicated. The initial motion is 330/07 kt. The depression will be steered to the northwest in the near term around a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn north, and then should accelerate northeastward by Wednesday night as the cyclone gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and ahead of the approaching cold front. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and on the official forecast track the cyclone will remain over open waters for the duration of its existence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.2N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 23.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 25.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
