Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
#1173212 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast today and Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the region. A cold front pushes across the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building to the north Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from late morning through early this evening for much of the area. 2. Cooler today with gusty winds expected (gusts of 20-25 mph inland, up to 30 mph along the eastern shore of VA/MD). Latest analysis reveals ~1004mb sfc low pressure offshore of the coastal Carolinas, with strong sfc cold front now offshore of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast. To the SW, 1027+mb sfc high pressure was analyzed over the west-central gulf coast. Cooler and breezy W-NW winds today, with only some passing mid to high clouds over northern sections later this morning in association with additional weak shortwave energy passing mainly to our north. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Breezy today, with the pressure gradient remaining compressed between low offshore and high pressure building across the gulf coast. Main forecast issue today will be the wind and the increasingly dry conditions. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these gusty winds and expected low RH afternoon as flow aloft becomes increasingly downslope (W-NW), wildfire danger will be elevated. See fire wx section below for additional details. Clear and seasonably cool tonight. Nudged temperatures upward slightly along the coast with boundary layer to remain well- mixed, with breezy conditions continuing through the night. Lows mainly in the upper 30s to around 40 inland (middle 30s along the US-15 corridor well inland), lower to middle 40s along the VA/NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Warmer and windy on Wednesday. 2. Continued concern for fire danger issues with gusty W-SW winds and increasingly dry conditions. 3. Turning cooler but remaining dry for Thursday. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, in compressional heating ahead of another mainly dry cold front. Northern stream low pressure will drop out of the Canadian Prairies into SE Ontario with its cold front dropping across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians during the day on Wed. Ahead of the front, increasingly gusty W-SW winds are expected (15-20 mph Wed aftn with gusts to 30-35 mph), which will only exacerbate the dry conditions that have been present through the week. These winds will obviously keep fire danger a concern, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect in anticipation of the low RH and gusty conditions. The frontal passage itself comes Wed evening and does not look to bring any precipitation to the region. Warmer Wed with highs well into the 60s (some readings ~70 possible). Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. Cooler behind the front on Thursday, with high pressure nosing in from the northwest, eventually building north of the region by Thursday night. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and despite the cooler conditions, wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south- central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler Thu night with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees SE coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... The high slides E-NE into New England to begin the day Friday morning. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday afternoon and evening and possibly lingering into Saturday. The 00z/19 GFS has trended slower toward the ECMWF/EPS solution, with the CMC a middle ground solution (slightly more progressive). While temporal and spatial disagreements continue, this paints a rainier picture for the region Friday night into Saturday, especially along and east of I-95. Have nudged PoPs up a bit into likely range Fri night and Saturday, with best rain chances early Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Will have lingering chance PoPs into Sunday morning along the Delmarva coast, while gradually drying out well inland. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z/19 TAF will persist through this evening and through midweek. Winds will remain ~8-10 knots this morning, before increasing to 12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt late this morning and this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions prevail tonight through Thu night, but remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW late Wed morning and Wed afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday behind another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing low pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing rain chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic sub- VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this period. && .MARINE... As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Elevated NW winds continue early this morning with diminishing winds in the afternoon. - Winds remain elevated this evening into early Thursday morning. - Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of strong winds and elevated seas this weekend into early next week. Early morning sfc analysis depicts a cold front south of the local waters with strong high pressure across the Deep South and low pressure off the coast of New England. The pressure gradient between these features has allowed for elevated NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts ~30 kt early this morning which will gradually diminish later this morning into this afternoon. Gale Warnings have been converted to SCAs for the Lower Bay and VA Beach offshore marine zone (ANZ656) due to winds dropping below 34 kt. SCAs remain in effect until 10 AM for the York and James Rivers as well as the Currituck Sound and until 1 PM this afternoon for the Ches Bay and coastal waters. SCAs have already been cancelled for the Rappahannock River. Winds briefly diminish this afternoon before becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening through tonight. SCAs will be needed for this surge, but will refrain from extending current SCAs right now due to the improved conditions this afternoon. Winds become W Wed generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt possible across the rivers due to a well mixed environment and strong winds over the land Wed afternoon. Low pressure moves into S Quebec into New England Wed evening into Wed night, pushing a strong cold front over the local waters. As such, winds become NW/NNW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt (highest across the N coastal waters) Wed evening/night behind the front. Winds diminish late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as progressive high pressure briefly moves in. The reprieve in winds lasts until Fri afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement that a cutoff low moves into the SE and off the SE coast Fri into this weekend with low pressure forming within it and high pressure to the NE Fri and then NW later in the weekend. The exact track of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast and how much wind and rain is to be expected. However, as of now, confidence is increasing that the pressure gradient alone will likely be strong enough for high-end SCA to Gale conditions to develop this weekend. As of now, the strongest winds appear to be Sat night (but this could change). Will continue to monitor this weekend for the potential of Gale conditions. Waves and seas were 4-5 ft and 4-6 ft this morning. Waves/seas subside to 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later this afternoon. A period of elevated waves/seas is looking increasingly likely this weekend into early next week due to prolonged E/SE and then N flow. High Surf Advisories and seas 8-10 ft (potentially larger) are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. 2. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility for any fires to burn out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ve issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties today, with the exception of the MD Beaches (Ocean City, MD area) and N OBX (E Currituck County, ND). Winds are expected to be stronger on Wednesday, and as temperatures warm up, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, a Fire Wx Watch continues for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. This will be collaborated further with surrounding offices and state forestry agencies later this morning. Any jurisdictions not in a Fire Wx Watch Wed will likely see another IFD statement owing to the gusty winds and warmer conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 636>638. && $$ |
#1173207 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast today and Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the region. A cold front pushes across the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building to the north Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from late morning through early this evening for much of the area. 2. Cooler today with gusty winds expected (gusts of 20-25 mph inland, up to 30 mph along the eastern shore of VA/MD). Latest analysis reveals ~1004mb sfc low pressure offshore of the coastal Carolinas, with strong sfc cold front now offshore of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast. To the SW, 1027+mb sfc high pressure was analyzed over the west-central gulf coast. Cooler and breezy W-NW winds today, with only some passing mid to high clouds over northern sections later this morning in association with additional weak shortwave energy passing mainly to our north. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Breezy today, with the pressure gradient remaining compressed between low offshore and high pressure building across the gulf coast. Main forecast issue today will be the wind and the increasingly dry conditions. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these gusty winds and expected low RH afternoon as flow aloft becomes increasingly downslope (W-NW), wildfire danger will be elevated. See fire wx section below for additional details. Clear and seasonably cool tonight. Nudged temperatures upward slightly along the coast with boundary layer to remain well- mixed, with breezy conditions continuing through the night. Lows mainly in the upper 30s to around 40 inland (middle 30s along the US-15 corridor well inland), lower to middle 40s along the VA/NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Warmer and windy on Wednesday. 2. Continued concern for fire danger issues with gusty W-SW winds and increasingly dry conditions. 3. Turning cooler but remaining dry for Thursday. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, in compressional heating ahead of another mainly dry cold front. Northern stream low pressure will drop out of the Canadian Prairies into SE Ontario with its cold front dropping across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians during the day on Wed. Ahead of the front, increasingly gusty W-SW winds are expected (15-20 mph Wed aftn with gusts to 30-35 mph), which will only exacerbate the dry conditions that have been present through the week. These winds will obviously keep fire danger a concern, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect in anticipation of the low RH and gusty conditions. The frontal passage itself comes Wed evening and does not look to bring any precipitation to the region. Warmer Wed with highs well into the 60s (some readings ~70 possible). Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. Cooler behind the front on Thursday, with high pressure nosing in from the northwest, eventually building north of the region by Thursday night. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and despite the cooler conditions, wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south- central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler Thu night with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees SE coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... The high slides E-NE into New England to begin the day Friday morning. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday afternoon and evening and possibly lingering into Saturday. The 00z/19 GFS has trended slower toward the ECMWF/EPS solution, with the CMC a middle ground solution (slightly more progressive). While temporal and spatial disagreements continue, this paints a rainier picture for the region Friday night into Saturday, especially along and east of I-95. Have nudged PoPs up a bit into likely range Fri night and Saturday, with best rain chances early Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Will have lingering chance PoPs into Sunday morning along the Delmarva coast, while gradually drying out well inland. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 12z/19 TAF will persist through this evening and through midweek. Winds will remain ~8-10 knots this morning, before increasing to 12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt late this morning and this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions prevail tonight through Thu night, but remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW late Wed morning and Wed afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday behind another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing low pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing rain chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic sub- VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this period. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Strong NW winds continue early this morning with Gale gusts possible. - Winds remain mostly elevated into early Thursday morning. - Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of strong winds and elevated seas this weekend into early next week. Early morning sfc analysis depicts a cold front south of the local waters with strong high pressure across the Deep South and low pressure off the coast of New England. The pressure gradient between these features has allowed for strong NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt (highest across the lower Ches Bay where gusts to 40 kt have been observed) overnight which will continue into this morning, gradually diminishing later this morning into this afternoon. As such, Gale Warnings for the Lower Bay and VA Beach offshore marine zone (ANZ656) remain in effect until 7 AM. Elsewhere, SCAs remain in effect until 1 PM this afternoon (although they may be able to be canceled earlier). Winds briefly diminish this afternoon before becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening through tonight. SCAs will be needed for this surge, but will refrain from extending current SCAs right now due to the improved conditions this afternoon. Winds become W Wed generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt possible across the rivers due to a well mixed environment and strong winds over the land Wed afternoon. Low pressure moves into S Quebec into New England Wed evening into Wed night, pushing a strong cold front over the local waters. As such, winds become NW/NNW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt (highest across the N coastal waters) Wed evening/night behind the front. Winds diminish late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as progressive high pressure briefly moves in. The reprieve in winds lasts until Fri afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement that a cutoff low moves into the SE and off the SE coast Fri into this weekend with low pressure forming within it and high pressure to the NE Fri and then NW later in the weekend. The exact track of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast and how much wind and rain is to be expected. However, as of now, confidence is increasing that the pressure gradient alone will likely be strong enough for high-end SCA to Gale conditions to develop this weekend. As of now, the strongest winds appear to be Sat night (but this could change). Will continue to monitor this weekend for the potential of Gale conditions. Waves and seas were 4-5 ft and 4-6 ft this morning. Waves/seas subside to 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later this afternoon. A period of elevated waves/seas is looking increasingly likely this weekend into early next week due to prolonged E/SE and then N flow. High Surf Advisories and seas 8-10 ft (potentially larger) are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. 2. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility for any fires to burn out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ve issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties today, with the exception of the MD Beaches (Ocean City, MD area) and N OBX (E Currituck County, ND). Winds are expected to be stronger on Wednesday, and as temperatures warm up, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, a Fire Wx Watch continues for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. This will be collaborated further with surrounding offices and state forestry agencies later this morning. Any jurisdictions not in a Fire Wx Watch Wed will likely see another IFD statement owing to the gusty winds and warmer conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656. && $$ |
#1173191 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast today and Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the region. A cold front pushes across the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building to the north Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from late morning through early this evening for much of the area. 2. Cooler today with gusty winds expected (gusts of 20-25 mph inland, up to 30 mph along the eastern shore of VA/MD). Latest analysis reveals ~1004mb sfc low pressure offshore of the coastal Carolinas, with strong sfc cold front now offshore of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast. To the SW, 1027+mb sfc high pressure was analyzed over the west-central gulf coast. Cooler and breezy W-NW winds today, with only some passing mid to high clouds over northern sections later this morning in association with additional weak shortwave energy passing mainly to our north. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Breezy today, with the pressure gradient remaining compressed between low offshore and high pressure building across the gulf coast. Main forecast issue today will be the wind and the increasingly dry conditions. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these gusty winds and expected low RH afternoon as flow aloft becomes increasingly downslope (W-NW), wildfire danger will be elevated. See fire wx section below for additional details. Clear and seasonably cool tonight. Nudged temperatures upward slightly along the coast with boundary layer to remain well- mixed, with breezy conditions continuing through the night. Lows mainly in the upper 30s to around 40 inland (middle 30s along the US-15 corridor well inland), lower to middle 40s along the VA/NC coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Warmer and windy on Wednesday. 2. Continued concern for fire danger issues with gusty W-SW winds and increasingly dry conditions. 3. Turning cooler but remaining dry for Thursday. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, in compressional heating ahead of another mainly dry cold front. Northern stream low pressure will drop out of the Canadian Prairies into SE Ontario with its cold front dropping across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians during the day on Wed. Ahead of the front, increasingly gusty W-SW winds are expected (15-20 mph Wed aftn with gusts to 30-35 mph), which will only exacerbate the dry conditions that have been present through the week. These winds will obviously keep fire danger a concern, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect in anticipation of the low RH and gusty conditions. The frontal passage itself comes Wed evening and does not look to bring any precipitation to the region. Warmer Wed with highs well into the 60s (some readings ~70 possible). Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. Cooler behind the front on Thursday, with high pressure nosing in from the northwest, eventually building north of the region by Thursday night. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and despite the cooler conditions, wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south- central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler Thu night with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees SE coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... The high slides E-NE into New England to begin the day Friday morning. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday afternoon and evening and possibly lingering into Saturday. The 00z/19 GFS has trended slower toward the ECMWF/EPS solution, with the CMC a middle ground solution (slightly more progressive). While temporal and spatial disagreements continue, this paints a rainier picture for the region Friday night into Saturday, especially along and east of I-95. Have nudged PoPs up a bit into likely range Fri night and Saturday, with best rain chances early Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Will have lingering chance PoPs into Sunday morning along the Delmarva coast, while gradually drying out well inland. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday... A cold front has dropped across the region to begin the 06z TAF period, with winds now NNW across the region. High confidence that VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the period. Winds will remain ~8-10 knots early this morning, before increasing to 12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail tonight through Thu night, but remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW Wed late morning and afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday behind another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing low pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing rain chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic sub- VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this period. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Strong NW winds continue early this morning with Gale gusts possible. - Winds remain mostly elevated into early Thursday morning. - Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of strong winds and elevated seas this weekend into early next week. Early morning sfc analysis depicts a cold front south of the local waters with strong high pressure across the Deep South and low pressure off the coast of New England. The pressure gradient between these features has allowed for strong NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt (highest across the lower Ches Bay where gusts to 40 kt have been observed) overnight which will continue into this morning, gradually diminishing later this morning into this afternoon. As such, Gale Warnings for the Lower Bay and VA Beach offshore marine zone (ANZ656) remain in effect until 7 AM. Elsewhere, SCAs remain in effect until 1 PM this afternoon (although they may be able to be canceled earlier). Winds briefly diminish this afternoon before becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening through tonight. SCAs will be needed for this surge, but will refrain from extending current SCAs right now due to the improved conditions this afternoon. Winds become W Wed generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt possible across the rivers due to a well mixed environment and strong winds over the land Wed afternoon. Low pressure moves into S Quebec into New England Wed evening into Wed night, pushing a strong cold front over the local waters. As such, winds become NW/NNW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt (highest across the N coastal waters) Wed evening/night behind the front. Winds diminish late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as progressive high pressure briefly moves in. The reprieve in winds lasts until Fri afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement that a cutoff low moves into the SE and off the SE coast Fri into this weekend with low pressure forming within it and high pressure to the NE Fri and then NW later in the weekend. The exact track of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast and how much wind and rain is to be expected. However, as of now, confidence is increasing that the pressure gradient alone will likely be strong enough for high-end SCA to Gale conditions to develop this weekend. As of now, the strongest winds appear to be Sat night (but this could change). Will continue to monitor this weekend for the potential of Gale conditions. Waves and seas were 4-5 ft and 4-6 ft this morning. Waves/seas subside to 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later this afternoon. A period of elevated waves/seas is looking increasingly likely this weekend into early next week due to prolonged E/SE and then N flow. High Surf Advisories and seas 8-10 ft (potentially larger) are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. 2. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility for any fires to burn out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ve issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties today, with the exception of the MD Beaches (Ocean City, MD area) and N OBX (E Currituck County, ND). Winds are expected to be stronger on Wednesday, and as temperatures warm up, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, a Fire Wx Watch continues for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. This will be collaborated further with surrounding offices and state forestry agencies later this morning. Any jurisdictions not in a Fire Wx Watch Wed will likely see another IFD statement owing to the gusty winds and warmer conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656. && $$ |
#1173181 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening, bringing a period of gusty winds and a chance for showers across southeast portions of the forecast area. High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing locally. A cold front pushes through the mid Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building north of the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 810 PM EDT Monday... The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure near the coast in SE VA/NE NC, with a trough aloft off to the NW of the FA. Radar continues to show some scattered showers from NE of Richmond through east central and SE VA, though with very dry low levels (T/Td depression greater than 30F), most of this will not reach the ground. For far SE VA and NE NC, dew pts are significantly higher with T/Td depressions 10-15F (temps upper 40s with dew pts in the mid 30s), and there have been a few obs reporting light rain. Will have PoPs of 30-50% over the SE zones through ~06Z/2am, with dry conditions elsewhere. It will also be breezy gusty N/NW winds as colder air aloft mixes down with gusts to 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph at the coast. Otherwise, look for a clearing sky overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these winds and expected low RH tomorrow afternoon, wildfire danger will be elevated. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the mi/upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Wed will also be breezy to windy with continued low RH. Wildfire danger will again be elevated. Highs will range through the 60s on Wednesday. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south-central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday and possibly lingering into Saturday. The ECMWF lingers rain, at least along the coast all day Saturday, while the GFS/CMC solution is more progressive. At this time, fcst will show a compromise of these solutions, with the best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through early Sat. Will have lingering chance PoPs Sat aftn through Sat eve. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday... A cold front has dropped across the region to begin the 06z TAF period, with winds now NNW across the region. High confidence that VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the period. Winds will remain ~8-10 knots early this morning, before increasing to 12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail tonight through Thu night, but remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW Wed late morning and afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday behind another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing low pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing rain chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic sub- VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this period. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Winds this afternoon are generally from the N/NW at 10-15 kt. Winds have actually turned onshore across the srn waters, mainly S of Cape Charles Light and in the srn Chesapeake Bay. Seas are 2-4 ft (highest S) and waves 1-2 ft. Into this evening, the pressure gradient quickly tightens as a strong upper disturbance approaches from the W. This will allow for a strong surge of CAA this evening into tonight over all of the waters, with the potential for a period of gale-force gusts in the lower bay and offshore of VA Beach, especially between 4-9z. Gale warnings were raised for these areas, including at the mouth of the bay, from 2-11z Tue for NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts to ~35 kt. Small craft advisories have been issued for all other area waters through 17z Tue where winds quickly increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. The gale warning will also need to be replaced w/ a SCA after it expires. Seas increase to 3-6 ft during this period, with waves in the bay also increasing to 3-5 ft given the favorable N/NW fetch. Winds diminish some for Tue aftn and then shift to the W/SW, though they may remain gusty to ~20 kt. Another period of elevated SW winds are then expected Tue evening/overnight as another upper disturbance slides through. SCAs look likely for most of the waters for this event. And then for Wed aftn, deep mixing and higher 925 mb winds could lead to continuing SCAs in the bay and especially the rivers and Currituck Sound. A dry cold front passes S through the region Wed night, with a surge of NNW winds likely with SCAs again possible. It looks more benign to end the week with high pressure ridging down from the N. Complex fcst remains for the weekend with cyclogenesis to our S over the Gulf Stream. The GFS and ECMWF show significant discrepancies though have leaned toward a ECMWF/CMC solution which delays the strongest winds until Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility of any fires burning out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ll hoist an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties for Tuesday, save the MD Beaches and OBX Currituck. With winds expected to be stronger on Wednesday, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, will hoist a Fire Wx Watch for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. Elsewhere, expecting another IFD Statement on Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656. && $$ |