Show Area Forecast Discussion - Brownsville, TX (Brownsville, TX Area) Selection: |
#1173178 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining. Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV. Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night. Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return. Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 69 63 73 69 / 10 10 20 30 HARLINGEN 71 59 75 65 / 10 0 20 40 MCALLEN 71 61 76 68 / 10 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 59 75 65 / 10 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 64 70 68 / 10 0 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 61 73 66 / 10 0 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175. && $$ |