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#1173175 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast
through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s
swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds)
are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite
indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different
picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this
evening

- Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA
today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above
normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier
air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high
pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through
tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low
chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller
disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower
activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor.

Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low
70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the
low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs
ranging in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

-Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night

-Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning

-Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over
the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for
Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the
day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal
Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the
onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical
ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will
form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the
dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays.
However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the
NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The
dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around
the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening,
allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts),
so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with
500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the
Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis
move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to
East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves
into the region Thursday night.

Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through
Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb
heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain
would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the
high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins
to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and
probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance
pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the
offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the
risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place and will hold through much of
this TAF cycle. Northeasterly winds tonight will gradually shift
back around to the southeast by late Tuesday afternoon. Low level
moisture will increase across the Brush Country leading to the
return of MVFR ceilings at LRD, generally after 00Z. We may see low
ceilings move into COT late Tuesday night but confidence is not
as high.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early
morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower
activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong
northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then
becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore
and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance
(30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level
disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday
night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally
weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is
expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft
Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20
Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10
Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10
Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20
Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10
Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10
Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20
Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442-
443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$
#1173173 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion!
Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a
breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid
60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with
disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some
cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar
actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers.
However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have
fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few
rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface
observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the
ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities.

A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas
tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds
this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially
over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly
with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our
northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around
50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on
Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually
southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply
Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere,
resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light
southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from
falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s
in our northern / northeast counties).

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid
to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across
SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the
Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system
will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson,
Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though
conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If
an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly
area, the hail would be the main concern.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on
Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with
areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest
rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t
out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor
street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the
rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could
still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper
level low continues to swing through.

There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high
temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low
70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but
southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant
weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Benign weather conditions as high pressure remains over the
region and slightly moves east. Light north winds will gradually
shift to the east in the morning, then to the south/southeast in
the afternoon and evening. Overall, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front
will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the
Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past
few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters,
but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick
conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least
exercise caution into Tuesday morning.

Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through
Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and
there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night.
A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday
causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters
Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will
be possible near the coastal low.

Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake
of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns
for the weekend with mostly clear skies.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 43 66 53 69 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 52 62 56 68 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$