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#1173175 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds) are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this evening - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs ranging in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night -Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning -Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays. However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening, allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts), so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with 500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves into the region Thursday night. Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place and will hold through much of this TAF cycle. Northeasterly winds tonight will gradually shift back around to the southeast by late Tuesday afternoon. Low level moisture will increase across the Brush Country leading to the return of MVFR ceilings at LRD, generally after 00Z. We may see low ceilings move into COT late Tuesday night but confidence is not as high. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20 Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173173 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion! Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers. However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities. A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around 50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere, resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s in our northern / northeast counties). Self && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly area, the hail would be the main concern. Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper level low continues to swing through. There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Benign weather conditions as high pressure remains over the region and slightly moves east. Light north winds will gradually shift to the east in the morning, then to the south/southeast in the afternoon and evening. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters, but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least exercise caution into Tuesday morning. Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night. A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near the coastal low. Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns for the weekend with mostly clear skies. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 43 66 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 52 62 56 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ |