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#1173179 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue for a few more hours as a fresh push of cooler and drier air arrives. These winds are forecast to decrease some prior to sunrise Tuesday with temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s for a good majority of the area. Have continued tonight`s Freeze Warning for portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia in case winds decrease a little sooner than expected. The biggest changes made to this update were to lower the dew points faster and to keep elevated winds and wind gusts a bit longer tonight. Otherwise, no major updates were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties. Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front. Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 41 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 47 66 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1173178 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining. Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV. Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night. Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return. Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 69 63 73 69 / 10 10 20 30 HARLINGEN 71 59 75 65 / 10 0 20 40 MCALLEN 71 61 76 68 / 10 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 59 75 65 / 10 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 64 70 68 / 10 0 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 61 73 66 / 10 0 20 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175. && $$ |
#1173177 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 VFR conditions expected under northerly flow through today. Winds are expected to become light this evening. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM UPDATE... Overall the forecast remains on track; however, temperatures might not get as cold as originally expected. Just looking at the overall pattern, we are still under the influences of a 50 to 60 knot 500mb jet and a rather tight pressure gradient at the surface. As a result, winds are expected to remain elevated especially closer to the coast. Typically gusty winds limit radiational cooling through mechanical mixing and this coupled with some higher clouds streaming overhead in response to a subtropical jet over the Gulf might help keep temperatures more in the mid 30s further south and only areas along and north of highway 84 to reach below freezing. On top of warmer temperatures, frost may be a little more difficult given rather large dewpoint depressions nearing 10 degrees or more and once again breezy conditions. Typically for good frost formation you want cool, moist, calm conditions with clear skies. This may only happen further north where drier air has filtered in and the influences of the upper jet are not noticeable. Nonetheless, some of the area will likely see a late season freeze tonight and the potential for some frost still exists. NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region, moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low 30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region, however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261- 262. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655-670-675. && $$ |
#1173176 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 110 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) A cold front continues to push across the region, with some showers possible for southwest FL sites for the next few hours, though limited impacts are expected. VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period. Some brief MVFR cigs are not out of the question early this morning, but believe probabilities are too low to mention. Only other concern is some gustiness at all sites this morning, generally diminishing through the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 76 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 69 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 74 50 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 68 40 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 56 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
#1173175 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds) are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this evening - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs ranging in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night -Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning -Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays. However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening, allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts), so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with 500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves into the region Thursday night. Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place and will hold through much of this TAF cycle. Northeasterly winds tonight will gradually shift back around to the southeast by late Tuesday afternoon. Low level moisture will increase across the Brush Country leading to the return of MVFR ceilings at LRD, generally after 00Z. We may see low ceilings move into COT late Tuesday night but confidence is not as high. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20 Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173173 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion! Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers. However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities. A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around 50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere, resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s in our northern / northeast counties). Self && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly area, the hail would be the main concern. Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper level low continues to swing through. There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Benign weather conditions as high pressure remains over the region and slightly moves east. Light north winds will gradually shift to the east in the morning, then to the south/southeast in the afternoon and evening. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters, but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least exercise caution into Tuesday morning. Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night. A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near the coastal low. Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns for the weekend with mostly clear skies. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 43 66 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 52 62 56 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ |