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#1173179 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue for a few more hours
as a fresh push of cooler and drier air arrives. These winds are
forecast to decrease some prior to sunrise Tuesday with
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s for a good
majority of the area. Have continued tonight`s Freeze Warning for
portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia in case winds
decrease a little sooner than expected.

The biggest changes made to this update were to lower the dew
points faster and to keep elevated winds and wind gusts a bit
longer tonight. Otherwise, no major updates were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the
region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold
front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air
into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the
region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud
cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play
tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and
SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for
radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below.
However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening
which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were
calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50%
chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas.
Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started
this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze
warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable
plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our
SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL
counties.

Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max
temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL
and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid
to upper 60s across our FL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as
upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles
into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night
due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in
the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front.

Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low
to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than
Tuesday high temps.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the
subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the
upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass
through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the
possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances
interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The
greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and
across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support
in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features,
rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe
weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited
instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in
this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next
few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the
remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR
levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into
the region.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief
gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These
winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will
drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and
seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases
to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next
system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely
as this system moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today
resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will
be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport
winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up
to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent
rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel
moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the
west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft
yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will
generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend
counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather
concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture
from the recent rains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9
has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint
River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola
River throughout this work week.

Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday
morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally
receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and
Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida
counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-
concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability
outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the
Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However,
uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 41 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 62 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 64 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 47 66 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for
FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.

AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$
#1173178 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been
highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early
Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some
perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak
overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers
and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday,
the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more
zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of
the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s
and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with
plenty of cloud cover remaining.

Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk
and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an
accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will
lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow
beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood
Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon
or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with
another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but
remains confidence is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the
mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed-
Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower
Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast
Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with
fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale
trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early
next week which may result in increasing southerly winds

Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more
so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing
surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid-
level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from
the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain
chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger
thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have
been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF
is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which
would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of
the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later
Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming
windy across the lower RGV.

Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late
March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure
settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend
with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with
no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable
also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is
the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased
marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of
the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night.

Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the
east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will
continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions
are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas
behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will
decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore
waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are
currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will
return.

Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the
lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the
western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E
light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to
moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge
settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with
moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 63 73 69 / 10 10 20 30
HARLINGEN 71 59 75 65 / 10 0 20 40
MCALLEN 71 61 76 68 / 10 10 20 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 59 75 65 / 10 10 10 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 64 70 68 / 10 0 20 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 61 73 66 / 10 0 20 40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
455.

until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
GMZ130-132-135.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170-
175.

&&

$$
#1173177 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions expected under northerly flow through today.
Winds are expected to become light this evening.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM UPDATE...

Overall the forecast remains on track; however, temperatures
might not get as cold as originally expected. Just looking at the
overall pattern, we are still under the influences of a 50 to 60
knot 500mb jet and a rather tight pressure gradient at the
surface. As a result, winds are expected to remain elevated
especially closer to the coast. Typically gusty winds limit
radiational cooling through mechanical mixing and this coupled
with some higher clouds streaming overhead in response to a
subtropical jet over the Gulf might help keep temperatures more in
the mid 30s further south and only areas along and north of
highway 84 to reach below freezing. On top of warmer temperatures,
frost may be a little more difficult given rather large dewpoint
depressions nearing 10 degrees or more and once again breezy
conditions. Typically for good frost formation you want cool,
moist, calm conditions with clear skies. This may only happen
further north where drier air has filtered in and the influences
of the upper jet are not noticeable. Nonetheless, some of the
area will likely see a late season freeze tonight and the
potential for some frost still exists.

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as
an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western
Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the
surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region,
moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the
deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and
drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear
skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead,
efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low
30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer
to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all
inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and
Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region,
however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall
confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew
points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage
of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top
out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will
be in place through the period. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261-
262.

FL...None.
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
650-655-670-675.

&&

$$
#1173176 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
110 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
A cold front continues to push across the region, with some
showers possible for southwest FL sites for the next few hours,
though limited impacts are expected. VFR conditions are generally
expected through the forecast period. Some brief MVFR cigs are
not out of the question early this morning, but believe
probabilities are too low to mention. Only other concern is some
gustiness at all sites this morning, generally diminishing through
the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 76 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 69 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 74 50 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 68 40 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 68 56 72 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Charlotte
Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
#1173175 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast
through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s
swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds)
are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite
indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different
picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this
evening

- Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA
today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above
normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier
air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high
pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through
tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low
chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller
disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower
activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor.

Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low
70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the
low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs
ranging in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Key Messages:

-Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night

-Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning

-Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over
the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for
Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the
day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal
Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the
onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical
ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will
form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the
dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays.
However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the
NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The
dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around
the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening,
allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts),
so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with
500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the
Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis
move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to
East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves
into the region Thursday night.

Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through
Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb
heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain
would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the
high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins
to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and
probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance
pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the
offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the
risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place and will hold through much of
this TAF cycle. Northeasterly winds tonight will gradually shift
back around to the southeast by late Tuesday afternoon. Low level
moisture will increase across the Brush Country leading to the
return of MVFR ceilings at LRD, generally after 00Z. We may see low
ceilings move into COT late Tuesday night but confidence is not
as high.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early
morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower
activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong
northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then
becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore
and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance
(30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level
disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday
night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally
weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is
expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft
Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20
Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10
Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10
Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20
Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10
Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10
Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20
Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442-
443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$
#1173173 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion!
Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a
breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid
60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with
disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some
cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar
actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers.
However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have
fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few
rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface
observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the
ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities.

A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas
tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds
this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially
over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly
with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our
northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around
50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on
Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually
southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply
Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere,
resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light
southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from
falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s
in our northern / northeast counties).

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid
to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across
SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the
Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system
will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson,
Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though
conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If
an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly
area, the hail would be the main concern.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on
Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with
areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest
rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t
out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor
street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the
rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could
still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper
level low continues to swing through.

There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high
temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low
70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but
southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant
weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Benign weather conditions as high pressure remains over the
region and slightly moves east. Light north winds will gradually
shift to the east in the morning, then to the south/southeast in
the afternoon and evening. Overall, VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front
will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the
Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past
few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters,
but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick
conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least
exercise caution into Tuesday morning.

Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through
Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and
there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night.
A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday
causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters
Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will
be possible near the coastal low.

Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake
of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns
for the weekend with mostly clear skies.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 43 66 53 69 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 52 62 56 68 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$