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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection:
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#1173180 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
131 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will build from the northwest through the night, with
a trend toward clear skies. Due to the gradient between the exiting
front and building high, a surge of winds will move south across the
region beginning this evening, and lasting through around sunrise.
The strongest winds will be along the coast.

Temperatures will fall off sharply Tonight, with lows ranging from
the mid 30s over inland SE GA, to the lower 40s over coastal NE FL.
Frost is not expected due to the winds. However, wind chills values
will drop below freezing across most inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of
the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly
mild winds persisting through Wednesday. There is a possibility
for frost formation early Wednesday morning for some areas however
conditions for development are borderline so confidence at this
time is low. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and
rising into the lower 70s Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures
will similarly rise from out of the upper 30s up into the mid 40s
Wednesday night going into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The influence of high pressure will diminish and move off to the
east on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing on Friday as instability associated with a low pressure
system traveling across the Gulf of Mexico and then being
followed by a dry front bringing high pressure conditions over the
forecast area by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop
to be slightly below the seasonal average by the end of the week
but will return to normal levels by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Mostly clear skies except for sct-bkn high clouds and few stratocumulus
clouds, so VFR prevails through tonight. These VFR clouds will dissipate
and also move further south later this morning. The main story is the
surge of northwest to north winds through about 12z. Generally looking
at winds northwest at 15G25kt for the time being. The winds will diminish
within a couple of hours of sunrise. Winds will be light and variable
later in the period as high pressure moves over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move
across the area today with scattered to numerous showers through
the afternoon and into the evening. In the wake of the cold front,
a rapid increase in northwest to north winds is expected tonight
and will support gale force conditions with a gale warning is now
in effect. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure
to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the
dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance
arrives Thursday night which will increase winds and build seas
again through Friday.

Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot.
Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased
northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 40 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 61 43 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 66 39 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 66 39 73 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-452-454-470-
472-474.

&&

$$