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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection:
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#1173200 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
427 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday,
bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move
through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...Showers/Virga associated with passing of
upper trough axis currently confined to Hatt and offshore will
continue to push Eward through the early morning hours with
skies rapidly clearing W to E as high pressure builds over the
FA from the W. Stiff winds in place presently with Nerly surge
of CAA winds will relax some starting with sunrise as the jets
embedded in the trough aloft push offshore through the morning,
backing to become Werly by this afternoon. We have an Increased
Fire Danger SPS in effect for all of Mainland ENC. See FWF or
FIRE WEATHER section below for more information. Clear skies and
highs in the mid 50s, low 50s OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...Quiet night on tap with high pressure
continuing to build over the FA and flow aloft becoming more
zonal briefly with base of the upper level trough over ECONUS
broadening as one shortwave exits the region to the NE and
another digging down the Wern half of the trough toward the
Great Lakes. A light SWerly breeze through the overnight will
keep WAA in place which will lead to warmer MinTs than MON night
despite the clear skies and high pressure nearby. MinTs low 40s
away from immediate coast, mid 40s to low 50s beaches.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A
dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low
pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into
the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the
area, which could linger into early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across
the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through
Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area
Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building
back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day
of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny
skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with
highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit
cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas
are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.

Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though
there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the
guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model
guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive
solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc
low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday
while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be
possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged
period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal
flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will
depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to
increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At
this time best rain chances will be Friday night into
Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue
to fine tune specifics over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 0100 Tuesday...VFR flight cats with gusty winds are
expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be
possible for coastal terminals for the first few hours of this
TAF cycle but will wane quickly in the hours before sunrise.
CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering
and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for
coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for
a couple of hours as the trough crosses, then winds will
briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough
axis clears very late tonight. Clear skies and gusty winds
again; NWerly early, backing to become Werly in the afternoon,
SWerly this evening.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for
sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure
system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the
day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tues Night/...
As of 0415 Tuesday...Gusty N-NWerly winds early as axis of
shortwave in upper trough passes departs. Waters and sounds
could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts
up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. An SCA is in place for all
waters through the day, however there will be a period of sub-
SCA conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds in,
relaxing winds while backing to become Werly 10-15kt this
afternoon. Conditions deteriorate again this evening and tonight
as winds continue to veer to become SWerly 15-20G25kt by
2000edt, SWerly 20-25G30kt by midnight local. Seas are currently
4-7ft forecast to subside to 2-5ft by this afternoon, increasing
again overnight with the strengthening winds to 4-7ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will
continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas
3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and
coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move
through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning,
with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25
kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours
Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15
kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins
to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build
to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.

Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the
waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week,
as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged
period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm
force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday
night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected
through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today. The day shift
will reassess the need for another IFD SPS WED,

Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland,
25-30% coast, and breezy NWerly winds early becoming Werly
10-15mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph.

Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a
strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this
the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing
and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor
to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with
localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts
may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and
Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected
Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area
on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with
ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the
forecast over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
#1173185 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
251 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday,
bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move
through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS
continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the
trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of
the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of
100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to
support some light showers this evening and overnight, even
though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow
moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite
imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar.
However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air
in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the
precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and
evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best
chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10")
will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and
strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying
20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/.

Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues
its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the
trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur
after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of
CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a
couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in
the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper
30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs
in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be
building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring
drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect
for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of
the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid
50s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A
dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low
pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into
the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the
area, which could linger into early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across
the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through
Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area
Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building
back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day
of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny
skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with
highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit
cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas
are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.

Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is
expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though
there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the
guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model
guidance. The GFS continues to be the more progressive
solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger sfc
low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday
while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be
possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged
period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal
flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will
depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to
increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At
this time best rain chances will be Friday night into
Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night.
Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue
to fine tune specifics over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are
expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be
possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the
area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be
lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030
group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach
30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses,
then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear
rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday
will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Thursday. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for
sub-VFR will be increasing Friday and Saturday with low pressure
system impacting the area. Rain chances increase through the
day Friday, becoming widespread moderate to heavy at times
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this
evening, and will become gusty NW`rly overnight as an upper
trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional
gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the
Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in
the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the
outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly
diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the
approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to
subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will
continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas
3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA for the Pamlico Sound and
coastal waters through Wed eve/night. A dry front will move
through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning,
with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25
kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours
Thursday morning. Flow will grad veer Thu night becoming E 10-15
kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins
to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build
to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.

Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the
waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week,
as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged
period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm
force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday
night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 250 AM Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected
through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds.
Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today.

Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and
breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph.

Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 AM Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a
strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this
the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing
and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor
to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with
localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts
may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and
Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected
Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area
on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with
ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the
forecast over the next few days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX