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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection:
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#1173177 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions expected under northerly flow through today.
Winds are expected to become light this evening.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM UPDATE...

Overall the forecast remains on track; however, temperatures
might not get as cold as originally expected. Just looking at the
overall pattern, we are still under the influences of a 50 to 60
knot 500mb jet and a rather tight pressure gradient at the
surface. As a result, winds are expected to remain elevated
especially closer to the coast. Typically gusty winds limit
radiational cooling through mechanical mixing and this coupled
with some higher clouds streaming overhead in response to a
subtropical jet over the Gulf might help keep temperatures more in
the mid 30s further south and only areas along and north of
highway 84 to reach below freezing. On top of warmer temperatures,
frost may be a little more difficult given rather large dewpoint
depressions nearing 10 degrees or more and once again breezy
conditions. Typically for good frost formation you want cool,
moist, calm conditions with clear skies. This may only happen
further north where drier air has filtered in and the influences
of the upper jet are not noticeable. Nonetheless, some of the
area will likely see a late season freeze tonight and the
potential for some frost still exists.

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as
an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western
Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the
surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region,
moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the
deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and
drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear
skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead,
efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low
30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer
to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all
inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and
Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region,
however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall
confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew
points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage
of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top
out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will
be in place through the period. /96

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261-
262.

FL...None.
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
650-655-670-675.

&&

$$