Show Area Forecast Discussion - Mobile, AL (Mobile, AL Area) Selection: |
#1173177 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 VFR conditions expected under northerly flow through today. Winds are expected to become light this evening. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM UPDATE... Overall the forecast remains on track; however, temperatures might not get as cold as originally expected. Just looking at the overall pattern, we are still under the influences of a 50 to 60 knot 500mb jet and a rather tight pressure gradient at the surface. As a result, winds are expected to remain elevated especially closer to the coast. Typically gusty winds limit radiational cooling through mechanical mixing and this coupled with some higher clouds streaming overhead in response to a subtropical jet over the Gulf might help keep temperatures more in the mid 30s further south and only areas along and north of highway 84 to reach below freezing. On top of warmer temperatures, frost may be a little more difficult given rather large dewpoint depressions nearing 10 degrees or more and once again breezy conditions. Typically for good frost formation you want cool, moist, calm conditions with clear skies. This may only happen further north where drier air has filtered in and the influences of the upper jet are not noticeable. Nonetheless, some of the area will likely see a late season freeze tonight and the potential for some frost still exists. NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region, moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low 30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region, however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261- 262. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655-670-675. && $$ |