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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection:
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#1173193 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
357 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Across the mid levels, the main shortwave vorticity maxima that is
digging equatorward through the southeast tonight, will be quickly
rounding the base of the broader 500mb trough in place over the
eastern conus today. As this shortwave exits off the eastern conus,
northwesterly zonal flow across the 500mb will develop over the
region, with the main trough axis sliding east over Bermuda today.
This will lead to slight 500 mb height rises across the region.
Although 500mb heights will be rising across the region, the shallow
cooler continental airmass associated with the aforementioned mid
level shortwave trough will be in place over the southeast will keep
daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. This airmass
is associated with a surface high pressure that is expected to
settle into the central and northeastern Gulf coast states tonight.
The surface high pressure will play a pivotal role in the allowing
overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s across the region.
With the surface high pressure expected to be nearly overhead, winds
should remain calm or very light through the overnight and early
morning hours. This will lead to an efficient radiational cooling
night. As such, forecast lows were hedged towards the cooler end of
the guidance. The only caveat to this will be the 250mb jet streak
that is currently draped across northern Mexico. As this lifts north
into the northern Gulf of Mexico due to ridge building across the
Yucatan, the jet maxima is expected to be directly over the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend early Wednesday morning. This could introduce
some high level cirrus clouds that may hinder low temperatures from
bottoming out towards the early morning hours.

Overall, the biggest concern will be the potential for frost
development once again across the CWA. With calm winds and RHs in
near 80 percent, the chance for frost is much higher if cooler near
freezing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s do occur. Given the
uncertainty, any issuance of a frost advisory will be held off until
the next forecast package.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

A warming and moistening trend is expected across the area through
the short term period. Winds are forecast fairly light and variable
on Wednesday with surface high pressure overhead before becoming
southeasterly and increasing Thursday into Thursday night as an area
of low pressure develops over Texas and begins to push eastward.
Rain chances may begin to increase across the Gulf Thursday evening
before spreading inland through the night Thursday night as this
system moves closer. At this point a few thunderstorms may be
possible, especially near the coast, but severe weather is not
expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push through the
area on Friday ahead of a cold front. Severe weather doesn`t seem
likely with this system at this point. Drier and cooler air is
forecast to push into the area in the wake of this front, but
significant cooling is not expected. A warming and moistening
trend is forecast to begin again early next week as the next
system develops over the southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next
few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the
remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR
levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Advisory level conditions continue through this morning with winds
and seas continuing to gradually decrease throughout today and
tonight. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through
Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on
Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our
south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Surface high pressure will settle into the region today, which will
lead to light transport winds out of the north/northeast. Transport
winds will remain around 10 mph. Minimum RH values will drop into
the low to mid 20s across the region today as an extremely dry
airmass associated with the aforementioned surface high pressure
pushes into the area. This will lead to fuels quickly drying out
today, especially in the wake of the windy day on Monday.
Dispersions will be fair today as mixing heights top out around 4000
ft, and transport winds remain light. Overall, there are no fire
weather concerns other than the low RH values expected across the
region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Area rivers and streams will continue to fall over the next
several days with only the Apalachicola River remaining in flood.
The next chance for rain comes late Thursday into Friday with a
widespread 0.5 to 1 inches of rainfall likely with isolated higher
amounts possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, although
isolated higher totals over the already saturated spots may create
additional rises on the rivers.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 63 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 37 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 60 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 38 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 65 37 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for
FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.

AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$
#1173179 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024)
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue for a few more hours
as a fresh push of cooler and drier air arrives. These winds are
forecast to decrease some prior to sunrise Tuesday with
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s for a good
majority of the area. Have continued tonight`s Freeze Warning for
portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia in case winds
decrease a little sooner than expected.

The biggest changes made to this update were to lower the dew
points faster and to keep elevated winds and wind gusts a bit
longer tonight. Otherwise, no major updates were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the
region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold
front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air
into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the
region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud
cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play
tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and
SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for
radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below.
However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening
which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were
calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50%
chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas.
Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started
this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze
warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable
plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our
SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL
counties.

Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max
temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL
and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid
to upper 60s across our FL counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as
upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles
into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night
due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in
the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front.

Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low
to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than
Tuesday high temps.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the
subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the
upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass
through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the
possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances
interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The
greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and
across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support
in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features,
rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe
weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited
instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in
this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next
few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the
remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR
levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into
the region.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief
gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These
winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will
drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and
seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases
to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next
system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely
as this system moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today
resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will
be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport
winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up
to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent
rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel
moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the
west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft
yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will
generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend
counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather
concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture
from the recent rains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9
has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint
River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola
River throughout this work week.

Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday
morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally
receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and
Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida
counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-
concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability
outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the
Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However,
uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 41 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 62 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 64 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 47 66 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for
FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.

AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$