Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
#1173193 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:12 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 357 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Across the mid levels, the main shortwave vorticity maxima that is digging equatorward through the southeast tonight, will be quickly rounding the base of the broader 500mb trough in place over the eastern conus today. As this shortwave exits off the eastern conus, northwesterly zonal flow across the 500mb will develop over the region, with the main trough axis sliding east over Bermuda today. This will lead to slight 500 mb height rises across the region. Although 500mb heights will be rising across the region, the shallow cooler continental airmass associated with the aforementioned mid level shortwave trough will be in place over the southeast will keep daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. This airmass is associated with a surface high pressure that is expected to settle into the central and northeastern Gulf coast states tonight. The surface high pressure will play a pivotal role in the allowing overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s across the region. With the surface high pressure expected to be nearly overhead, winds should remain calm or very light through the overnight and early morning hours. This will lead to an efficient radiational cooling night. As such, forecast lows were hedged towards the cooler end of the guidance. The only caveat to this will be the 250mb jet streak that is currently draped across northern Mexico. As this lifts north into the northern Gulf of Mexico due to ridge building across the Yucatan, the jet maxima is expected to be directly over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend early Wednesday morning. This could introduce some high level cirrus clouds that may hinder low temperatures from bottoming out towards the early morning hours. Overall, the biggest concern will be the potential for frost development once again across the CWA. With calm winds and RHs in near 80 percent, the chance for frost is much higher if cooler near freezing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s do occur. Given the uncertainty, any issuance of a frost advisory will be held off until the next forecast package. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 A warming and moistening trend is expected across the area through the short term period. Winds are forecast fairly light and variable on Wednesday with surface high pressure overhead before becoming southeasterly and increasing Thursday into Thursday night as an area of low pressure develops over Texas and begins to push eastward. Rain chances may begin to increase across the Gulf Thursday evening before spreading inland through the night Thursday night as this system moves closer. At this point a few thunderstorms may be possible, especially near the coast, but severe weather is not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push through the area on Friday ahead of a cold front. Severe weather doesn`t seem likely with this system at this point. Drier and cooler air is forecast to push into the area in the wake of this front, but significant cooling is not expected. A warming and moistening trend is forecast to begin again early next week as the next system develops over the southern Plains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Advisory level conditions continue through this morning with winds and seas continuing to gradually decrease throughout today and tonight. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Surface high pressure will settle into the region today, which will lead to light transport winds out of the north/northeast. Transport winds will remain around 10 mph. Minimum RH values will drop into the low to mid 20s across the region today as an extremely dry airmass associated with the aforementioned surface high pressure pushes into the area. This will lead to fuels quickly drying out today, especially in the wake of the windy day on Monday. Dispersions will be fair today as mixing heights top out around 4000 ft, and transport winds remain light. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns other than the low RH values expected across the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Area rivers and streams will continue to fall over the next several days with only the Apalachicola River remaining in flood. The next chance for rain comes late Thursday into Friday with a widespread 0.5 to 1 inches of rainfall likely with isolated higher amounts possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, although isolated higher totals over the already saturated spots may create additional rises on the rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 37 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 60 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 38 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 65 37 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1173179 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 19.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue for a few more hours as a fresh push of cooler and drier air arrives. These winds are forecast to decrease some prior to sunrise Tuesday with temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s for a good majority of the area. Have continued tonight`s Freeze Warning for portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia in case winds decrease a little sooner than expected. The biggest changes made to this update were to lower the dew points faster and to keep elevated winds and wind gusts a bit longer tonight. Otherwise, no major updates were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties. Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front. Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 41 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 61 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 40 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 47 66 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |