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Show Area Forecast Discussion - San Juan, PR (Puerto Rico) Selection: |
| #501786 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 30.Mar.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1048 PM AST FRI MAR 30 2012 .UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING SHOWERS. ALSO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN LOCAL WATERS INCLUDING THE ADJACENT ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOMMODATE ACTUAL WEATHER AND DECREASE WAVE HEIGHTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL HIGH FOR URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING TO OCCUR. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 31/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 31/16Z PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 31/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM AST FRI MAR 30 2012/ SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT...JET STREAK WILL RELOCATE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FLAT RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS RESPOND BY INDICATING A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SHARP DRYING FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. OVERALL...EXPECT MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FIVE TO SIX DAYS OF APRIL. AVIATION...IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MISS ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT JBQ THEN MUCH BETTER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIG WX. MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVR THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING PRETTY MUCH FLAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL SCAS WILL BE CANCELLED. CLIMATE...9.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR AT THE SJU INTL ARPT SO FAR THIS MONTH. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF BREAKING THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 73 84 73 84 / 60 60 0 10 STT 75 77 75 77 / 50 50 0 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #501689 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 30.Mar.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 316 PM AST FRI MAR 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT...JET STREAK WILL RELOCATE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FLAT RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS RESPOND BY INDICATING A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SHARP DRYING FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. OVERALL...EXPECT MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FIVE TO SIX DAYS OF APRIL. && .AVIATION...IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MISS ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT JBQ THEN MUCH BETTER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIG WX. && .MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVR THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING PRETTY MUCH FLAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL SCAS WILL BE CANCELLED. && .CLIMATE...9.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR AT THE SJU INTL ARPT SO FAR THIS MONTH. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF BREAKING THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 73 84 73 84 / 50 50 0 10 STT 75 77 75 77 / 50 50 0 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #501655 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 PM 30.Mar.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1156 AM AST FRI MAR 30 2012 .UPDATE...VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER EL YUNQUE RAIN FOREST AREA...WITH RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 3 INCHES IN THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE..ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS. && .AVIATION...MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ...THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM AST FRI MAR 30 2012/ SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE AREA WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH LEFT THE AREA TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. TROUGHING DOES NOT RETURN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND OUT OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. IT IS THIS HIGH THAT DRAGS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS BECAME HEAVY OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS AND A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TENDED TO PASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE GFS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 30/18Z AND THIS COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE MOST POPS WERE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OVER PUERTO RICO. THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT HAS STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE LOCAL AREA WILL BEGIN TO DIFFUSE...BUT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A TROUGH FROM A STRONGLY DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE SHOWERS IN GENERAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER TIST AND TISX WITH PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER 30/16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 30/15Z TO 30/22Z. MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY SUNSET. NEXT LARGE SWELL EVENT NOT TILL LATER NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 73 84 74 / 50 50 30 50 STT 83 74 84 75 / 40 50 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR... VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM. && $$ |
| #501595 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 30.Mar.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 510 AM AST FRI MAR 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG SOUTHWEST JET OVER THE AREA WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH LEFT THE AREA TOWARD THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. TROUGHING DOES NOT RETURN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND OUT OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. IT IS THIS HIGH THAT DRAGS A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS BECAME HEAVY OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS AND A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TENDED TO PASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE GFS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 30/18Z AND THIS COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE MOST POPS WERE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OVER PUERTO RICO. THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT HAS STRAYED LITTLE FROM THE LOCAL AREA WILL BEGIN TO DIFFUSE...BUT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A TROUGH FROM A STRONGLY DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE SHOWERS IN GENERAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER TIST AND TISX WITH PASSING SHOWERS. AFTER 30/16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ UNTIL 30/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TJPS AND TJMZ FROM 30/15Z TO 30/22Z. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY SUNSET. NEXT LARGE SWELL EVENT NOT TILL LATER NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 73 84 74 / 50 50 30 50 STT 83 74 84 75 / 40 50 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CULEBRA- MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR. VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS. COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM. && $$ |
