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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #510153 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:23 PM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 911 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF NAPLES. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT ITS MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE BOYNTON BEACH AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD STREETS COMING OFF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A TRANQUIL EVENING EXPECTED AND NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE. 60 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 73 85 / 20 20 20 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 40 MIAMI 76 86 74 87 / 20 20 20 40 NAPLES 71 90 69 88 / 10 30 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #510135 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:32 PM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 720 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER ISOLD SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER A PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE CLOSE TO THE ERN TERMINALS WITH BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 12-13 KTS (EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER IN KTMB AND KAPF) INCREASING TO ARND 15 KTS AND BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ ..INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS OF SEEING A STORM OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT AT BEST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HELPING TO UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL RAISE THE POPS FOR MONDAY TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINA STATES. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUSH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER LONG RANGE MODELS WHERE SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDED BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IN TURN WAS ALLOWING FOR A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVE THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATER TONIGHT DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 73 85 / 10 20 20 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 75 85 / 10 20 20 40 MIAMI 76 86 74 87 / 10 20 20 40 NAPLES 71 90 69 88 / 20 30 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #510090 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:02 PM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 254 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS OF SEEING A STORM OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT AT BEST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HELPING TO UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL RAISE THE POPS FOR MONDAY TO SCATTERED CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. .EXTENDED FORECAST... THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINA STATES. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUSH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER LONG RANGE MODELS WHERE SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDED BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IN TURN WAS ALLOWING FOR A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVE THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATER TONIGHT DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 73 85 / 10 20 20 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 77 85 75 86 / 10 20 20 40 MIAMI 76 86 74 87 / 10 20 20 40 NAPLES 71 90 69 88 / 20 30 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #510083 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:11 PM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 202 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .AVIATION... OCCASIONAL CIGS AROUND AND JUST ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG THE GULF COAST SECTIONS AROUND APF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT BY THE END OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY. 85/AG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS OF SEEING A STORM OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS IS AROUND 20 PERCENT AT BEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS...AND THE SCEC CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WILL OCCASIONAL CIGS 035-045 MAINLY AT THE E CST TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHRA IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TSRA WILL TEND TO DRIFT WEST AND COULD AFFECT CLOSE TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BUT CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG E WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KT ALONG THE E CST AND THIS WILL PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. /KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND MOVES NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THAT DEEPENS TO THE N GULF OF MEX BY MIDWEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE E U.S. COAST/N FLA BY THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF OF THE NC COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S, LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO N FLA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENS. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE MINIMAL POPS E COAST WITH SCATTERED W INTERIOR AND W COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADJUSTS STEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND THE PATTERN REVERSES WITH THE THRUST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY INTERIOR AND E. THOUGH SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...THE MOVING OF THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AND W TODAY WHICH BECOMES COMMON PLACE CWA-WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE MOIST IN THE SHORT TERM THAN OTHER MODELS OVER THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PENDING BETTER GUIDANCE/MODEL AGREEMENT. E COAST JUST A BIT COOLER WITH INCREASED WINDS OFF OF THE ATLC TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WARMER W COAST WITH NO SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY REVERSES THIS PATTERN AS WELL BUT FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMS BUT ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLA SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THURSDAY MORNING...STALL JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN S CENTRAL FLA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SE AND WITH THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE WIND CIRCULATION THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOFT OVER THE E U.S. S FLA WILL BE UNDER SW WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE W COAST WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL POPS AND THE INTERIOR AND E WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY. THE GFS INDICATES A DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD PENDING DEVELOPMENTS. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S FLA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO POSSIBLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ATLC SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLC BEACHES CAN EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 73 87 / 10 20 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 74 86 / 10 20 20 30 MIAMI 76 85 74 86 / 10 20 20 30 NAPLES 69 90 70 86 / 20 30 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #510042 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:02 AM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 959 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE CWA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE ODDS OF SEEING A STORM OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS IS AROUND 20 PERCENT AT BEST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA FOR TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS...AND THE SCEC CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .UPDATE...54/BNB .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WILL OCCASIONAL CIGS 035-045 MAINLY AT THE E CST TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHRA IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TSRA WILL TEND TO DRIFT WEST AND COULD AFFECT CLOSE TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BUT CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG E WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KT ALONG THE E CST AND THIS WILL PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. /KOB && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND MOVES NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THAT DEEPENS TO THE N GULF OF MEX BY MIDWEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE E U.S. COAST/N FLA BY THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF OF THE NC COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S, LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO N FLA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENS. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE MINIMAL POPS E COAST WITH SCATTERED W INTERIOR AND W COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADJUSTS STEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND THE PATTERN REVERSES WITH THE THRUST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY INTERIOR AND E. THOUGH SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...THE MOVING OF THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AND W TODAY WHICH BECOMES COMMON PLACE CWA-WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE MOIST IN THE SHORT TERM THAN OTHER MODELS OVER THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PENDING BETTER GUIDANCE/MODEL AGREEMENT. E COAST JUST A BIT COOLER WITH INCREASED WINDS OFF OF THE ATLC TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WARMER W COAST WITH NO SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY REVERSES THIS PATTERN AS WELL BUT FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMS BUT ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLA SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THURSDAY MORNING...STALL JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN S CENTRAL FLA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SE AND WITH THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE WIND CIRCULATION THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOFT OVER THE E U.S. .S FLA WILL BE UNDER SW WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE W COAST WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL POPS AND THE INTERIOR AND E WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY. THE GFS INDICATES A DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD PENDING DEVELOPMENTS. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S FLA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO POSSIBLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ATLC SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLC BEACHES CAN EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 84 76 83 73 / 20 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 84 77 84 74 / 20 10 20 20 MIAMI 85 76 85 74 / 20 10 20 20 NAPLES 90 69 90 70 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #510029 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:44 AM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WILL OCCASIONAL CIGS 035-045 MAINLY AT THE E CST TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHRA IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE AND POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TSRA WILL TEND TO DRIFT WEST AND COULD AFFECT CLOSE TO THE KAPF TERMINAL BUT CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG E WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KT ALONG THE E CST AND THIS WILL PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. /KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012/ EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLA SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THURSDAY MORNING...STALL JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN S CENTRAL FLA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SE AND WITH THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE WIND CIRCULATION THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOFT OVER THE E U.S. ..S FLA WILL BE UNDER SW WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE W COAST WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL POPS AND THE INTERIOR AND E WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY. THE GFS INDICATES A DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD PENDING DEVELOPMENTS. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S FLA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO POSSIBLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ATLC SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLC BEACHES CAN EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 84 76 83 73 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 84 77 84 74 / 10 10 20 20 MIAMI 85 76 85 74 / 10 10 20 20 NAPLES 90 69 90 70 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #509971 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:26 AM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND MOVES NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THAT DEEPENS TO THE N GULF OF MEX BY MIDWEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE E U.S. COAST/N FLA BY THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF OF THE NC COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S, LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO N FLA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENS. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE MINIMAL POPS E COAST WITH SCATTERED W INTERIOR AND W COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY MONDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADJUSTS STEERING WINDS TO THE SW AND THE PATTERN REVERSES WITH THE THRUST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY INTERIOR AND E. THOUGH SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...THE MOVING OF THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AND W TODAY WHICH BECOMES COMMON PLACE CWA-WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE MOIST IN THE SHORT TERM THAN OTHER MODELS OVER THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PENDING BETTER GUIDANCE/MODEL AGREEMENT. E COAST JUST A BIT COOLER WITH INCREASED WINDS OFF OF THE ATLC TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WARMER W COAST WITH NO SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY REVERSES THIS PATTERN AS WELL BUT FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMS BUT ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. .EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLA SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THURSDAY MORNING...STALL JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN S CENTRAL FLA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SE AND WITH THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE WIND CIRCULATION THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOFT OVER THE E U.S. ...S FLA WILL BE UNDER SW WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE W COAST WITH MAINLY NOCTURNAL POPS AND THE INTERIOR AND E WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY. THE GFS INDICATES A DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD PENDING DEVELOPMENTS. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S FLA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND VEERING TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO POSSIBLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ATLC SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ATLC BEACHES CAN EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 84 76 83 73 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 84 77 84 74 / 10 10 20 20 MIAMI 85 76 85 74 / 10 10 20 20 NAPLES 90 69 90 70 / 20 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES 800 AM EDT THROUGH 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR |
| #509951 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:32 AM 12.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 121 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN OCCASIONAL CIG AT THE E CST TERMINALS 040-050 ESPECIALLY AFT 13Z. A FEW SHRA MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE ONSHORE. THE INCREASED E WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012/ UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE. RAINFALL RATES IN GENERAL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING NEAR ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS HAVING A CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WERE FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL ZONE INDICATING THAT TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. 60 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012/ AVIATION...WL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SOME OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS. SHWRS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN COLLIER EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE REACHING KAPF. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13Z SATURDAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012/ INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... DISCUSSION... THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS IN THESE AREAS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POPS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY...ESPEICALLY OVER THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND...AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY SATURDAY BE 4 TO 6 FEET...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 2 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL BE PUTTING UP A SCEC CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE CWA WATERS FOR TONIGHT. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
