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Show Area Forecast Discussion - San Juan, PR (Puerto Rico) Selection: |
| #511203 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 PM 16.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1013 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012 .UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE ONCE AGAIN WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 17/17Z AND 17/22Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012/ SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. DISCUSSION...SATELITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCH... UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT NEARLY TWO INCHES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH VENTILATION. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 16/22Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJMZ. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. MARINE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 86 76 87 / 50 50 40 40 STT 77 86 77 88 / 50 50 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ |
| #511102 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 PM 16.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 318 PM AST WED MAY 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ELONGATED RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. && .DISCUSSION...SATELITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCH... UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT NEARLY TWO INCHES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH VENTILATION. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND STRONGER MID/UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. && .AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 16/22Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJMZ. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. && .MARINE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 40 50 40 STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 50 50 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ |
| #511051 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 16.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1045 AM AST WED MAY 16 2012 .UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECT WILL INDUCE AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT AS OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NOT CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TIST...TISX TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL 16/17Z. MVFR WILL DEVELOPED AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AT TIMES AFT 16/17Z. EXPECT TSTMS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 16/17Z INTERIOR PR SPREADING NW. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME ESE-SE 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM AST WED MAY 16 2012/ SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TIME UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDER ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 16/12Z AND 16/18Z STILL INDICATE ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AND INTERESTINGLY THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 16/12Z IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY 15/12Z. SINCE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND MAKING IT MORE EAST SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE DRYING THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY. STARTING ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS START A DRYING TREND THAT TAKE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.85 INCHES ON SUNDAY TO 1.14 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A STRONG CAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE WOULD HAVE DRY AND WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US. FOR THAT REASON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY. AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SOMEWHAT OVER PR AND THE USVI. SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN PR BUT TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPK WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR. MVFR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AT TIMES AFT 16/17Z. EXPECT TSTMS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 16/17Z INTERIOR PR SPREADING NW. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME ESE-SE 10-20 KT. MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY AT 9 AM UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 20 STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ |
| #511011 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:56 AM 16.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 554 AM AST WED MAY 16 2012 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS TIME UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDER ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 16/12Z AND 16/18Z STILL INDICATE ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AND INTERESTINGLY THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 16/12Z IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY 15/12Z. SINCE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE 0-6 KM AVERAGE WIND MAKING IT MORE EAST SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE DRYING THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY. STARTING ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS START A DRYING TREND THAT TAKE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.85 INCHES ON SUNDAY TO 1.14 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A STRONG CAP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...WE WOULD HAVE DRY AND WARM DAYS AHEAD OF US. FOR THAT REASON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SOMEWHAT OVER PR AND THE USVI. SCT SHWRS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN PR BUT TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR EXCEPT TNCM AND TKPK WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR. MVFR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AT TIMES AFT 16/17Z. EXPECT TSTMS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 16/17Z INTERIOR PR SPREADING NW. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME ESE-SE 10-20 KT. && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY AT 9 AM UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 76 86 77 / 30 30 30 20 STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ |
