Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Norfolk - Wakefield, VA (Hampton Roads/Tidewater/Virginia Beach, VA Area) Selection: |
| #512943 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 943 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... SVR TSTM WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR NE NC. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (HAIL PRODUCING) CELLS MOVED ACROSS BERTIE & HERTFORD COUNTIES. WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THESE CELLS IS WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SE VA. STILL ENUF MOISTURE AND MERGING BOUNDARIES AROUND TO CARRY SCT CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG..ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SHORE AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... UNSTABLE ATM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THU MRNG BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MRNG. MAIN UPR-LVL S/W WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN...BUT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM S/W MAY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT 40-50% AS MID-LVL MOISTURE FINALLY DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FOR FRI...UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE MCS TRAVELING OVR THE RIDGE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S OVR THE COAST AND LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPR-LVL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 INLAND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...BUT MCS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION COULD ROUND THE FRONT SIDE (NW FLOW REGION) OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND CLIP THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR FOG/STRATUS AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT (SBY). NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SEVERITY OF FOG/STRATUS FOR THE REMAINING AIRPORTS BUT DO EXPECT GOOD CHANCE OF VSBY 1-3 MILES AND SOME SCT/BKN CLOUDS FROM 010-030 BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE-SW OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY PSBL OVER PIEDMONT REGION WITH WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS FOR THU AS LIGHT SE-SW WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR CHC OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERALLY SE OR S FLO THRU THE FCST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES SETTING UP AND SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC CST FM LATE THU THRU MON...WILL PROVIDE SE/S/SW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE MARINE AREA. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #512944 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 920 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SVR TSTM WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR NE NC. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE (HAIL PRODUCING) CELLS MOVED ACROSS BERTIE & HERTFORD COUNTIES. WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THESE CELLS IS WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SE VA. STILL ENUF MOISTURE AND MERGING BOUNDARIES AROUND TO CARRY SCT CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG..ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SHORE AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSTABLE ATM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THU MRNG BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MRNG. MAIN UPR-LVL S/W WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN...BUT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM S/W MAY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT 40-50% AS MID-LVL MOISTURE FINALLY DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FOR FRI...UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE MCS TRAVELING OVR THE RIDGE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S OVR THE COAST AND LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPR-LVL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...BUT MCS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION COULD ROUND THE FRONT SIDE (NW FLOW REGION) OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND CLIP THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL MAINLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THRU THU...AS UPR LO PRES AREA AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ISLTD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/SBY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERLY MORNG STRATUS AND FOG...SHUD THEN PREVAIL FM FRI AFTN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERALLY SE OR S FLO THRU THE FCST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES SETTING UP AND SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC CST FM LATE THU THRU MON...WILL PROVIDE SE/S/SW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE MARINE AREA. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR |
| #512945 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 714 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SVR TSTM WATCH 292 CONTINUES FOR NC COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM. MONITORING STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO BERTIE AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES ATTM. BERTIE CELL HAS BEST RADAR SIGNATURE ATTM. OTW...SCT ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS VA / MD THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINERS THE THREAT. PVS DSCN: HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE NC THRU 9PM. UPR-LVL CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVR CENTRAL NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWRD THRU THIS EVNG. CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE DEVELOPING OVR MUCH OF THE FA THUS FAR THIS AFTN (ASIDE FROM ISO TSTM OVR NORTHERN AREAS) DUE TO A PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVR THE REGION...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS SHOWN BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LVL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVR NEXT FEW HRS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5". MAIN SVR THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINGS. SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSTABLE ATM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THU MRNG BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MRNG. MAIN UPR-LVL S/W WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN...BUT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM S/W MAY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT 40-50% AS MID-LVL MOISTURE FINALLY DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FOR FRI...UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE MCS TRAVELING OVR THE RIDGE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S OVR THE COAST AND LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPR-LVL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...BUT MCS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION COULD ROUND THE FRONT SIDE (NW FLOW REGION) OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND CLIP THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL MAINLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THRU THU...AS UPR LO PRES AREA AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ISLTD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/SBY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERLY MORNG STRATUS AND FOG...SHUD THEN PREVAIL FM FRI AFTN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERALLY SE OR S FLO THRU THE FCST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES SETTING UP AND SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC CST FM LATE THU THRU MON...WILL PROVIDE SE/S/SW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE MARINE AREA. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #512859 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SVR TSTM WATCH 292 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE NC THRU 9PM. UPR-LVL CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVR CENTRAL NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWRD THRU THIS EVNG. CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE DEVELOPING OVR MUCH OF THE FA THUS FAR THIS AFTN (ASIDE FROM ISO TSTM OVR NORTHERN AREAS) DUE TO A PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVR THE REGION...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS SHOWN BY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LVL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVR NEXT FEW HRS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5". MAIN SVR THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINGS. SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSTABLE ATM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THU MRNG BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MRNG. MAIN UPR-LVL S/W WILL PULL NE OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN...BUT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM S/W MAY HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WEAK SFC BNDRY REMAINS OVR THE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT 40-50% AS MID-LVL MOISTURE FINALLY DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. FOR FRI...UPR-LVL RIDGE BLDS OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE MCS TRAVELING OVR THE RIDGE. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND...UPR 70S TO LWR 80S OVR THE COAST AND LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPR-LVL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...BUT MCS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION COULD ROUND THE FRONT SIDE (NW FLOW REGION) OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND CLIP THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL MAINLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THRU THU...AS UPR LO PRES AREA AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ISLTD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/SBY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERLY MORNG STRATUS AND FOG...SHUD THEN PREVAIL FM FRI AFTN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERALLY SE OR S FLO THRU THE FCST PERIOD...INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HI PRES SETTING UP AND SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC CST FM LATE THU THRU MON...WILL PROVIDE SE/S/SW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS ACRS THE MARINE AREA. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #512860 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 155 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON STLT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA AND CHC POPS OVR THE LWR EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX COVERS HAMPTON ROADS SOUTH THRU NE NC. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL... SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS 50H TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -12C. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF 50 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE SRN VA AND NORTHEAST NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH EARNEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARM TO AROUND -10C. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THESE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...80 TO 85 ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL MAINLY HAVE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THRU THU...AS UPR LO PRES AREA AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ISLTD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT AND ERLY THU MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/SBY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERLY MORNG STRATUS AND FOG...SHUD THEN PREVAIL FM FRI AFTN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512861 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1206 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON STLT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK FRONT JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA AND CHC POPS OVR THE LWR EASTERN SHORE. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX COVERS HAMPTON ROADS SOUTH THRU NE NC. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL... SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS 50H TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -12C. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF 50 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE SRN VA AND NORTHEAST NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH EARNEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARM TO AROUND -10C. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THESE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...80 TO 85 ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512862 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 810 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON STLT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY ACCORDING TO THE NAM. AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS AND CHC POPS TO THE EAST. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE COVERS A SMALL PORTION OF OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND A SEE TEXT REACHES INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL... SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS 50H TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -12C. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF 50 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE SRN VA AND NORTHEAST NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH EARNEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARM TO AROUND -10C. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THESE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...80 TO 85 ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512863 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 722 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON STLT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. PATCHY FOG IN MOST AREAS BECAME DENSE IN SPOTS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. FOG SHOULD LIFT AROUND 8 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY ACCORDING TO THE NAM. AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS AND CHC POPS TO THE EAST. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE COVERS A SMALL PORTION OF OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND A SEE TEXT REACHES INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGER THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL... SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS 50H TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -12C. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF 50 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE SRN VA AND NORTHEAST NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH EARNEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARM TO AROUND -10C. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THESE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...80 TO 85 ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512864 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 431 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. AFTER A CLOUDY START...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG... EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING. SOME MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CONVECTION PRIOR TO 18Z THAN AFTER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VA AND NORTHEAST NC. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS AND CHC POPS TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE... ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PSBL THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS 50H TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -12C. HAVE 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF 50 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE SRN VA AND NORTHEAST NC COAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH EARNEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARM TO AROUND -10C. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THESE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...80 TO 85 ON THE LWR EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512865 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 111 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE DONE. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL THE LAND AREAS. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR DENSE FOG. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL... CONTINUE MOSTLY WEST OF I95 TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO DIE AND COULD AFFECT RIC AND PHF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY AREAS FALLING TO IFR AND PSBLY LIFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EARLY DAYBREAK. FOG/STRATUS WILL BEGIN EARLY TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE REGION BUT INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION IN THE AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU LATE TNGT ON THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO WEAK LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST CAUSING SE SWELLS AND PERIODS OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS. THEN...GENERALLY S WNDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL OCCUR FM WED THRU SUN...AS SFC HI PRES SETS UP WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #512866 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HEAVY RAINERS ALONG WITH MERGING PULSE CELLS PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING AND DIME TO QUARTER SIDED HAIL PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. CELLS WEAKENED PAST HOUR AS THEY APPROACH THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT STILL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF FA LATE THIS EVENING... ENUF MOISTURE AROUND FA FOR SCT POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOWER AFTER 06Z. ADDED AREAS OF FOG AS DATA SUPPORTS ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL... CONTINUE MOSTLY WEST OF I95 TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO DIE AND COULD AFFECT RIC AND PHF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MANY AREAS FALLING TO IFR AND PSBLY LIFR...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EARLY DAYBREAK. FOG/STRATUS WILL BEGIN EARLY TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE REGION BUT INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION IN THE AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU LATE TNGT ON THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO WEAK LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST CAUSING SE SWELLS AND PERIODS OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS. THEN...GENERALLY S WNDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL OCCUR FM WED THRU SUN...AS SFC HI PRES SETS UP WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #512814 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 410 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WEATHERWISE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING. SOME MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE MORE CONVECTION PRIOR TO 18Z THAN AFTER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VA AND NORTHEAST NC. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS AND CHC POPS TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING. DID A MIX OF MET AND MAV AND HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FROM 80 TO 85 WITH MID TO UPR 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBS REFLECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE S-SE THIS MORNING. CONTINUED S-SE FLOW TODAY AOB 15 KT...WITH THIS GENERAL S-SE FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS TNGT AND BECOMES ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SE CST THU THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WAVES TODAY GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20 NM IN MAINLY SE SWELL ~10 SECONDS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA |
| #512800 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 239 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE DONE. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL THE LAND AREAS. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR DENSE FOG. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH 1 AM UPDATE. S-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TODAY THRU SUNDAY, AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS AND BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20NM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #512794 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 AM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 239 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE DONE. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL THE LAND AREAS. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR DENSE FOG. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH 1 AM UPDATE. S-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TODAY THRU SUNDAY, AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS AND BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20NM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #512783 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:11 AM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 239 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE DONE. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL THE LAND AREAS. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR DENSE FOG. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH 1 AM UPDATE. S-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TODAY THRU SUNDAY, AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS AND BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20NM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #512773 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:08 AM 23.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 239 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN AND FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE DONE. REMOVED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL THE LAND AREAS. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR DENSE FOG. CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DENSE FOG BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND MOIST CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THU WITH AN UPR-LVL TROF CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUES. FOR WED...SFC TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVR WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE HIGHEST POPS (60%) WERE PLACED...40-50% ELSEWHERE. TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S UNDER A MSTLY CLDY SKY. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WED NGT...WITH THE BEST CHC AGAIN OVR WESTERN AREAS. FOR THU...STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH MOIST S/SW FLOW CONTINUING...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS AT 30-40% AS MID-LVL S/W PULLS NE OF THE AREA. DRYER CONDS FOR FRI AS HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HI PRES RDG ALOFT WILL BLD OVR THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI NGT THRU SUN...THEN EWRD ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON THRU TUE. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY A DRY FCST THRU MON NGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS ACTIVITY COMING OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG FM SAT AFTN INTO MON. OTHRWISE...A SFC TROF OR COLD FRNT APPROACHING FM THE WNW BY LATE TUE COULD TRIGGER ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN TUE AFTN/NGT. VRY WRM TEMPS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFTER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...MOVED ACROSS AREAS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I95 EARLIER THIS MORNING...LEFT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES AS OF 07Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IVOF KSBY. AS WITH LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME, CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS CIGS. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KSBY...WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY, BUT AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LT MORNING HRS, WITH CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15-16Z OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR WED AFTN/EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHC NEAR/AROUND KRIC. HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER AT KRIC/KECG WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. A SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN THU MORNING AND IN SCT CONVECTION BY AFTN. CLEARING FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH 1 AM UPDATE. S-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TODAY THRU SUNDAY, AS SFC HI PRES DEVELOPS AND BECOMES ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT...SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, HIGHEST OUT TOWARDS 20NM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
