Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
Recon Flying in to see if #TD2 has Become #Barry. Flhurricane.com
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Charleston, SC (Charleston, SC Area) Selection: |
| #512937 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 952 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MEANDER OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WEDNESDAY EVENING...A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KCHS RAOB HAD PREVENTED ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE BUT LOW PROBABILITY/IMPACT PRECLUDES ANY MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING DAY AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600 MB ON THURSDAY. PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL BUT WE INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ACCELERATING INLAND INTO THE HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN SC. THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM SO LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BE LIKELY. BUT WE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A STRIP CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...WILL STIFLE MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO THICKNESS VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INDICATED IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA OR POTENTIALLY MOVE WEST INTO SC OR GA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. POPS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. GENERAL S/SE WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT... WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-4 FT SEAS. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS COULD APPROACH 15 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR ON FRIDAY AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GA WATERS. WE ARE SHOWING SEAS INCREASING TO 6 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512938 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 726 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MEANDER OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WARMING/DRYING ALOFT HAD PREVENTED ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BRUSH FAR NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOWERED EVENING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL WATERS...MOST/ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE BUT LOW PROBABILITY/IMPACT PRECLUDES ANY MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOG POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING DAY AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600 MB ON THURSDAY. PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL BUT WE INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ACCELERATING INLAND INTO THE HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN SC. THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM SO LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BE LIKELY. BUT WE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A STRIP CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...WILL STIFLE MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO THICKNESS VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INDICATED IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA OR POTENTIALLY MOVE WEST INTO SC OR GA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. POPS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GENERAL S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS COULD APPROACH 15 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR ON FRIDAY AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GA WATERS. WE ARE SHOWING SEAS INCREASING TO 6 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512939 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 636 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MEANDER OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WARMING/DRYING ALOFT HAD PREVENTED ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO BRUSH FAR NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOWERED EVENING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL WATERS...MOST/ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE BUT LOW PROBABILITY/IMPACT PRECLUDES ANY MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOG POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING DAY AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600 MB ON THURSDAY. PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL BUT WE INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ACCELERATING INLAND INTO THE HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN SC. THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM SO LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BE LIKELY. BUT WE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A STRIP CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...WILL STIFLE MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO THICKNESS VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INDICATED IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA OR POTENTIALLY MOVE WEST INTO SC OR GA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 18Z/24. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GENERAL S/SE WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS COULD APPROACH 15 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR ON FRIDAY AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GA WATERS. WE ARE SHOWING SEAS INCREASING TO 6 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512869 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 358 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MEANDER OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED UP MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND POSSIBLY SOME LATE LIGHT FOG. CAN/T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AND THE SEA/LAKE BREEZES RESIDE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...COOLEST INLAND...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH PASSING DAY AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 600 MB ON THURSDAY. PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PENETRATE INLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL BUT WE INCLUDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ACCELERATING INLAND INTO THE HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN SC. THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY SO THE SEABREEZE WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM SO LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BE LIKELY. BUT WE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN A STRIP CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...WILL STIFLE MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS CLOSE TO THICKNESS VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INDICATED IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA OR POTENTIALLY MOVE WEST INTO SC OR GA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 18Z/24. ISO TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...NO BIG CONCERNS WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS COULD APPROACH 15 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR ON FRIDAY AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GA WATERS. WE ARE SHOWING SEAS INCREASING TO 6 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512870 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 154 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT LIES. CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED AND THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC. STILL THINK THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...ESPECIALLY POINTS FARTHER NORTH WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE ON THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. AN AREA OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUT I HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SOLUTION OF HOOKING A WAVE BACK TOWARD THE TRI COUNTY AREA. THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD AND HOW CLOSE THE INVERTED TROF WILL GET TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT BACKS WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT I COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE WE STAY DRY AS WELL IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ON. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR LIKELY AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 18Z/24. ISO TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR NOW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... QUIETER TIMES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF 15G20 KT FLOW. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BUILD SOME AS WELL...BUT I AM STILL HOLDING THE WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. MY BIGGEST CONCERN AREA IS THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEVELOPING WAVE...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH YET. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512871 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1040 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SC TO SHIFT NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC/GA. MEANWHILE...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN SC. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WILL REMAIN THERE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES TO START WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST INLAND LOCALES WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LATE TO REACH. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE UP COULD BECOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC NORTH OF CHARLESTON WHERE THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE ON THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. AN AREA OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUT I HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SOLUTION OF HOOKING A WAVE BACK TOWARD THE TRI COUNTY AREA. THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD AND HOW CLOSE THE INVERTED TROF WILL GET TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT BACKS WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT I COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE WE STAY DRY AS WELL IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ON. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 12Z/24. TSTM CHANCES TODAY NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... QUIETER TIMES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF 15G20 KT FLOW. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BUILD SOME AS WELL...BUT I AM STILL HOLDING THE WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. MY BIGGEST CONCERN AREA IS THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEVELOPING WAVE...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH YET. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512835 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:59 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 739 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DAYBREAK...A COMPLEX MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CENTER OF THE COLDER CORE OF MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE SE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH 500 MB READINGS OF -17C. CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND WELL OFF TO THE NE AND WE ARE STARTING THE DAY OFF DRY ALL AREAS WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE DECOUPLED AND WE HAVE SEEN TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TODAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE COLD CORE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE THE PEE DEE REGION BY MIDDAY AND THEN INTO SE AND ERN NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PWATS CLOSE TO 1.5 INCH PROGGED TO FLEE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WHILE MUCH DRIER PWATS BELOW 1 INCH INVADE E FROM SW GEORGIA TOWARD OUR INLAND ZONES. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS SATELLITE SUGGESTS QUITE A BIT OF INSOLATION IS ON TAP FOR THE MORNING. WE HAVE TRENDED JUST A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE ON POPS TODAY... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE W OF I-95 WHERE K INDICES ARE PROGGED TO DIP BELOW 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SE GEORGIA WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED SPOTTY CONVECTION. THAT IS NOT TO SAY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW END. THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND COLD POCKET AT MID AFTERNOON AND THOSE COUNTIES BORDER CHARLESTON COUNTY TO THE W AND NW. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A HEFTY SEA BREEZE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES AND BORDERING AREAS. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS IN THAT AREA BUT TRIMMED NEAR COASTAL POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 87-89 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW 90 DEGREE TEMPS COULD OCCUR INLAND INLAND SE GEORGIA. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZE ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE ON THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. AN AREA OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUT I HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SOLUTION OF HOOKING A WAVE BACK TOWARD THE TRI COUNTY AREA. THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD AND HOW CLOSE THE INVERTED TROF WILL GET TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT BACKS WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT I COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE WE STAY DRY AS WELL IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ON. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 12Z/24. TSTM CHANCES TODAY NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... BIG TIME TSTMS OVERNIGHT RAKED THE MARINE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GUSTED OVER 50 MPH AT THE EDISTO BUOY WITH THE CONVECTION AND AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT PRODUCED HUNDREDS OF CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. QUIETER TIMES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF 15G20 KT FLOW. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BUILD SOME AS WELL...BUT I AM STILL HOLDING THE WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. MY BIGGEST CONCERN AREA IS THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEVELOPING WAVE...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH YET. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512836 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:59 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 421 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PRE-DAWN...A COMPLEX MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CENTER OF THE COLDER CORE OF MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE CSRA WITH 500 MB READINGS OF -17C. A POTENT BUT SMALL VORT ROLLED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST PRODUCING WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION IN A REGION WHERE A FLANK OF -7C MID LEVEL RATES BISECTS UPPER FORCING AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED HOWEVER AND THE RISK OF STRONG TSTMS NOW DIMINISHED. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 70 NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. TODAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE COLD CORE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE THE PEE DEE REGION BY MIDDAY AND THEN INTO SE AND ERN NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PWATS CLOSE TO 1.5 INCH PROGGED TO FLEE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WHILE MUCH DRIER PWATS BELOW 1 INCH INVADE E FROM SW GEORGIA TOWARD OUR INLAND ZONES. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS SATELLITE SUGGESTS QUITE A BIT OF INSOLATION IS ON TAP FOR THE MORNING. WE HAVE TRENDED JUST A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE ON POPS TODAY... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE W OF I-95 WHERE K INDICES ARE PROGGED TO DIP BELOW 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SE GEORGIA WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED SPOTTY CONVECTION. THAT IS NOT TO SAY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW END. THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND COLD POCKET AT MID AFTERNOON AND THOSE COUNTIES BORDER CHARLESTON COUNTY TO THE W AND NW. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A HEFTY SEA BREEZE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES AND BORDERING AREAS. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS IN THAT AREA BUT TRIMMED NEAR COASTAL POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 87-89 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW 90 DEGREE TEMPS COULD OCCUR INLAND INLAND SE GEORGIA. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZE ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE ON THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. AN AREA OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUT I HAVE THROWN OUT THE NAM SOLUTION OF HOOKING A WAVE BACK TOWARD THE TRI COUNTY AREA. THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD AND HOW CLOSE THE INVERTED TROF WILL GET TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT BACKS WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT I COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE WE STAY DRY AS WELL IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ON. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 06Z/24. TSTM CHANCES TODAY NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR AWAY FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... BIG TIME TSTMS OVERNIGHT RAKED THE MARINE WATERS. WINDS GUSTED OVER 50 MPH AT THE EDISTO BUOY WITH THE CONVECTION AND AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT PRODUCED HUNDREDS OF CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. QUIETER TIMES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF 15G20 KT FLOW. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS PRESSURES LOWER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BUILD SOME AS WELL...BUT I AM STILL HOLDING THE WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. MY BIGGEST CONCERN AREA IS THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE DEVELOPING WAVE...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SCA CRITERIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT HIGH YET. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512803 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:20 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 153 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ENE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EAST- CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FEATURING A POOL OF 500 MB TEMPS -13C TO -15C/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OFFSET DIURNAL STABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. JUST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE GONE WITH GFS SOLUTION INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AND THE TEMPS HIGH. I EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REACH 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....EXCEPT LOCATIONS WITHIN 10 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS A BIT. HOWEVER...NIGHT TIME LOWS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 70...WITH MID 60S INLAND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 06Z/24. A RISK FOR TSTMS AT KSAV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT KCHS. A BIT LATER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT KCHS AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES PASS THROUGH. TSTMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL RISK FOR SH/TSTMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND MVFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BECOMING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST. COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR SEAS BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512796 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 153 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ENE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EAST- CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FEATURING A POOL OF 500 MB TEMPS -13C TO -15C/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OFFSET DIURNAL STABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. JUST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE GONE WITH GFS SOLUTION INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AND THE TEMPS HIGH. I EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REACH 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....EXCEPT LOCATIONS WITHIN 10 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS A BIT. HOWEVER...NIGHT TIME LOWS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 70...WITH MID 60S INLAND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 06Z/24. A RISK FOR TSTMS AT KSAV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT KCHS. A BIT LATER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT KCHS AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES PASS THROUGH. TSTMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL RISK FOR SH/TSTMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND MVFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BECOMING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST. COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR SEAS BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512789 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 153 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ENE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EAST- CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FEATURING A POOL OF 500 MB TEMPS -13C TO -15C/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OFFSET DIURNAL STABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. JUST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE GONE WITH GFS SOLUTION INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AND THE TEMPS HIGH. I EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REACH 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....EXCEPT LOCATIONS WITHIN 10 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS A BIT. HOWEVER...NIGHT TIME LOWS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 70...WITH MID 60S INLAND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 06Z/24. A RISK FOR TSTMS AT KSAV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT KCHS. A BIT LATER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT KCHS AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES PASS THROUGH. TSTMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL RISK FOR SH/TSTMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND MVFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BECOMING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST. COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR SEAS BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #512780 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:11 AM 23.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 153 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ENE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EAST- CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAD DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FEATURING A POOL OF 500 MB TEMPS -13C TO -15C/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OFFSET DIURNAL STABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. JUST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THE WEEKEND...I HAVE GONE WITH GFS SOLUTION INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AND THE TEMPS HIGH. I EXPECT MOST PLACES TO REACH 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....EXCEPT LOCATIONS WITHIN 10 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MODERATE THE TEMPS A BIT. HOWEVER...NIGHT TIME LOWS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 70...WITH MID 60S INLAND. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR AT BOTH TAFS THROUGH 06Z/24. A RISK FOR TSTMS AT KSAV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT KCHS. A BIT LATER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AT KCHS AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES PASS THROUGH. TSTMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SEA BREEZE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL RISK FOR SH/TSTMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON...AND MVFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BECOMING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE UPWARDS OF 15 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST. COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR SEAS BEYOND 20 NM. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
