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Show Area Forecast Discussion - New Orelans, LA (LIX) (New Orleans, LA Area) Selection: |
| #512883 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 .AVIATION... TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SCATTERED CUMULUS BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000 FEET OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT POPS ARE STILL TOO LOW TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB GROUP. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER LAKEFRONT FROM HAZY CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/ UPDATE... SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A DRY CAP ABOVE 760 MB AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING WITH A PW OF 1.19 INCHES AND AN LI OF -4.4. A SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 FEET ASL WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE SURFACE...LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/ SYNOPSIS... WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF PASCAGOULA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 60S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN 50S UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF JACKSON COUNTY AND MOBILE...AND IN AN AREA OF WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO NEAR GRAND ISLE. SHORT TERM... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. LONG TERM... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS. HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSE TO THE HOT MEX NUMBERS ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY OPPRESSIVE DUE TO THE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL TEND TO MIX DOWN. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 90 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS BELOW 90 DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS TAPS INTO SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS THE MOISTURE NORTH THEN WEST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED AND DOES NOT BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY...THEN FAVORING THE GFS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 22/TD AVIATION... EXPECTING TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS STILL TOO LOW TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB GROUP. VFR WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. MEFFER MARINE... WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN GULF KEEPING LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE. STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST. THIS AREA WITH BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INVITATION AS IT ALREADY HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATE MORNING AS COMMONLY HAPPENS IN SUMMER REGIME. LATER ROUND OF ACTIVITY IF INLAND STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM NW FLOW REGIME. DEEPENING SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US WHILE SFC TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN PLAINS DOES THE SAME. RESULT WILL BE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS. EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. MEFFER DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING WEATHER IN SUPPORT OF CLEANUP AFTER CHEMICAL FIRE IN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 89 67 92 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 68 91 71 92 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 72 89 71 91 / 10 10 0 0 GPT 70 86 70 89 / 10 10 0 0 PQL 66 88 65 90 / 10 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512885 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 827 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 .UPDATE... .SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A DRY CAP ABOVE 760 MB AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING WITH A PW OF 1.19 INCHES AND AN LI OF -4.4. A SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 500 FEET ASL WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE SURFACE...LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/ SYNOPSIS... WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF PASCAGOULA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 60S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN 50S UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF JACKSON COUNTY AND MOBILE...AND IN AN AREA OF WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO NEAR GRAND ISLE. SHORT TERM... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. LONG TERM... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS. HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSE TO THE HOT MEX NUMBERS ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY OPPRESSIVE DUE TO THE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL TEND TO MIX DOWN. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 90 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS BELOW 90 DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS TAPS INTO SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS THE MOISTURE NORTH THEN WEST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED AND DOES NOT BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY...THEN FAVORING THE GFS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 22/TD AVIATION... EXPECTING TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS STILL TOO LOW TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB GROUP. VFR WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. MEFFER MARINE... WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN GULF KEEPING LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE. STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST. THIS AREA WITH BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INVITATION AS IT ALREADY HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATE MORNING AS COMMONLY HAPPENS IN SUMMER REGIME. LATER ROUND OF ACTIVITY IF INLAND STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM NW FLOW REGIME. DEEPENING SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US WHILE SFC TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN PLAINS DOES THE SAME. RESULT WILL BE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS. EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. MEFFER DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING WEATHER IN SUPPORT OF CLEANUP AFTER CHEMICAL FIRE IN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 65 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 BTR 90 68 91 71 / 20 10 10 0 ASD 89 67 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 MSY 89 72 89 71 / 20 10 10 0 GPT 87 70 86 70 / 20 10 10 0 PQL 88 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512887 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 505 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF PASCAGOULA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 60S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EVEN 50S UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH A LOW GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF JACKSON COUNTY AND MOBILE...AND IN AN AREA OF WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO NEAR GRAND ISLE. && .SHORT TERM... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. .LONG TERM... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS. HAVE GONE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSE TO THE HOT MEX NUMBERS ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY OPPRESSIVE DUE TO THE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL TEND TO MIX DOWN. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 90 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS BELOW 90 DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES. THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A NARROW RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS TAPS INTO SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS THE MOISTURE NORTH THEN WEST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE MORE ENTRENCHED AND DOES NOT BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY...THEN FAVORING THE GFS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. 22/TD && .AVIATION... EXPECTING TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BUT MID LEVEL DECK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT POPS STILL TOO LOW TO HAVE A TEMPO OR PROB GROUP. VFR WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. MEFFER && .MARINE... WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN GULF KEEPING LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE. STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST. THIS AREA WITH BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INVITATION AS IT ALREADY HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATE MORNING AS COMMONLY HAPPENS IN SUMMER REGIME. LATER ROUND OF ACTIVITY IF INLAND STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM NW FLOW REGIME. DEEPENING SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US WHILE SFC TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN PLAINS DOES THE SAME. RESULT WILL BE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS. EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. MEFFER && DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING WEATHER IN SUPPORT OF CLEANUP AFTER CHEMICAL FIRE IN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 65 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 BTR 90 68 91 71 / 20 10 10 0 ASD 89 67 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 MSY 89 72 89 71 / 20 10 10 0 GPT 87 70 86 70 / 20 10 10 0 PQL 88 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512889 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1126 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .AVIATION... EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CELL THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE. ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMCB WHICH WILL IMPROVE BY 14 OR 15Z. AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS EVENINGS FLIGHT. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH A THUNDERSTORM WERE OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR PRIOR TO RELEASE. AT THE TIME OF RELEASE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE PRESENT WITH A DISTANT CB AND ALTOCUMULUS FORMED FROM THE SPREADING OUT OF A CB. THE SOUNDING IS FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH 700MB. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ABOVE 600MB. THE PW VALUE IS INDICATED AT 1.36 INCHES. THE LIFTED INDEX OF -6.5 CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AT 13K FEET. THE MEAN WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE WEST AT JUST OVER 5 KNOTS. FROM 5K TO 10K FEET THE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. STORM MOTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012/ SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1017MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN TO SOUTH ALABAMA TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS WERE 65 TO 70F SOUTH MCB TO LOUISIANA COAST. NORTH OF MCB TO JAN...DEWPOINT READINGS WERE 54 TO 60F. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE AREA OVER GEORGIA AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS AT 12Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.3 INCHES FROM NORTH FLORIDA HUGGING THE GULF COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO WEST OKLAHOMA. && SHORT TERM... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TONIGHT. A FEW NON-OFFICIAL SITES MAY WITNESS MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ONE COOL NIGHT ACCORDING TO PAUL DAVIS ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE OVER TEXAS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST GULF BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND CREATE A BROAD TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN 1.3 INCHES AND DRIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME...5H TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM -12C TO -10C. WARMING ALOFT FIGHTING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE SHORT WAVE SHIFT SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AS 5H TEMPS INCREASE UP TO -8C. THESE FEATURES WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THURSDAY. && LONG TERM... A VIGOROUS STORM WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ALLOW THE SOUTHWEST/RIDGE TO DEVELOP INTO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. 5H TEMPS WILL APPROACH -7 TO -6C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CAPPING ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING DAY TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 90S. GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND A LOW TRACKING ACROSS FLORIDA ONTO NORTHEAST GULF LATE SUNDAY. WILL LEAN TO EURO WILL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES SUNDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && MARINE... SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CAROLINAS YIELDING A MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY PERSIST AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RESULT WILL BE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS. EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS WEEKEND. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING WEATHER IN SUPPORT OF CLEANUP AFTER CHEMICAL FIRE IN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 89 65 89 / 10 20 10 0 BTR 65 91 68 90 / 10 20 0 10 ASD 61 90 66 89 / 10 20 10 10 MSY 72 90 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 GPT 64 88 69 86 / 10 20 10 10 PQL 64 89 66 89 / 10 20 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
