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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Morehead City, NC (Morehead City, NC Area) Selection: |
| #512946 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1042 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INLAND INTO THE LATE EVENING FOR THE LINGERING CONVECTION THERE...THEN EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPR LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. LCL STRATUS/FOG PSBL AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD THREAT. MIN TEMPS MAINLY MID-UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIAL UPR LOW WILL BE N OF AREA BUT SECONDARY TROF APPROACHING FROM W DURING AFTN. COULD SEE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG COAST IN MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN. LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY AND KEPT POPS IN 20/30 RANGE. MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS...MAINLY MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 225 PM WED...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL START TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TRHROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. PREFER PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. 5H TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS DURING THE WEEK...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS PRETTY WEAK WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE GA COAST. NAM RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SREF WEAKER THAN NAME BUT HAS THE LOW INLAND AND THE ECMWF STRONGEST BUT MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN OTHER MODELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS INDICATED IN THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. 6Z GFS DID SHOW THIS LOW. HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF GRIDS AT THE APPROPRIATE TIMES. WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE LOW DOES. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY KPGV NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THEN ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND MOVING N WITH UPR LOW. WDLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF S COAST EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF KEWN AND KOAJ THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN FROM AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AT KISO AND KPGV OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS AND SCT STRATUS LIKELY AT KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE NO RAIN FELL. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR WITH HEATING THU MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AFT WITH SOME DIURNAL CU. LESS OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT THU AFTN AND NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 136 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... INLAND TROF WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM E. LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY 10-15 KT...EXPECTED DURING PERIOD BUT WILL SEE SLIGHT SHIFT OF WINDS FROM S-SW TONIGHT TO SE-S THU. WW3 AND SWAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 148 PM WED...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA WATERS FRIDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE GA COAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND IN SOUTHEAST WATERS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM |
| #512947 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 750 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 615 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED TO EXTEND LIKELY POPS INTO EVENING FOR NW 1/3 OF AREA...BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LATEST MESO MODELS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED...ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND SEEING SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG IT. WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...ANY DEEPER STORMS COULD BECOME SVR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT...AND SVR TSTM WATCH POSTED FOR MOST OF AREA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INLAND INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN EXPECT LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT SHIFTING TO COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPR LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. LCL STRATUS/FOG PSBL AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD THREAT. MIN TEMPS MAINLY MID-UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIAL UPR LOW WILL BE N OF AREA BUT SECONDARY TROF APPROACHING FROM W DURING AFTN. COULD SEE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG COAST IN MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN. LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY AND KEPT POPS IN 20/30 RANGE. MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS...MAINLY MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 225 PM WED...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL START TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TRHROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. PREFER PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. 5H TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS DURING THE WEEK...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS PRETTY WEAK WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE GA COAST. NAM RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SREF WEAKER THAN NAME BUT HAS THE LOW INLAND AND THE ECMWF STRONGEST BUT MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN OTHER MODELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS INDICATED IN THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. 6Z GFS DID SHOW THIS LOW. HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF GRIDS AT THE APPROPRIATE TIMES. WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE LOW DOES. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 740 PM WEDNESDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY KPGV NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THEN ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND MOVING N WITH UPR LOW. WDLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF S COAST EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF KEWN AND KOAJ THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN FROM AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AT KISO AND KPGV OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS AND SCT STRATUS LIKELY AT KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE NO RAIN FELL. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR WITH HEATING THU MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AFT WITH SOME DIURNAL CU. LESS OF A CONVECTIVE THREAT THU AFTN AND NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 136 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 615 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INLAND TROF WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM E. LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY 10-15 KT...EXPECTED DURING PERIOD BUT WILL SEE SLIGHT SHIFT OF WINDS FROM S-SW TONIGHT TO SE-S THU. WW3 AND SWAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 148 PM WED...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA WATERS FRIDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE GA COAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND IN SOUTHEAST WATERS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM |
| #512948 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:53 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 620 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 615 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED TO EXTEND LIKELY POPS INTO EVENING FOR NW 1/3 OF AREA...BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LATEST MESO MODELS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED...ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND SEEING SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG IT. WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...ANY DEEPER STORMS COULD BECOME SVR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT...AND SVR TSTM WATCH POSTED FOR MOST OF AREA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INLAND INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN EXPECT LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT SHIFTING TO COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPR LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. LCL STRATUS/FOG PSBL AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD THREAT. MIN TEMPS MAINLY MID-UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIAL UPR LOW WILL BE N OF AREA BUT SECONDARY TROF APPROACHING FROM W DURING AFTN. COULD SEE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG COAST IN MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN. LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY AND KEPT POPS IN 20/30 RANGE. MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS...MAINLY MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 225 PM WED...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL START TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TRHROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. PREFER PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. 5H TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS DURING THE WEEK...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS PRETTY WEAK WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE GA COAST. NAM RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SREF WEAKER THAN NAME BUT HAS THE LOW INLAND AND THE ECMWF STRONGEST BUT MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN OTHER MODELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS INDICATED IN THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. 6Z GFS DID SHOW THIS LOW. HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF GRIDS AT THE APPROPRIATE TIMES. WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE LOW DOES. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THREATEN MAINLY KPGV AND KISO THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED OTHERWISE. MVFR VSBYS AND SCT STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO LIMIT IFR THREAT. VFR PREVAILING THU...OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT IN AFTN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 136 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 615 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INLAND TROF WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM E. LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY 10-15 KT...EXPECTED DURING PERIOD BUT WILL SEE SLIGHT SHIFT OF WINDS FROM S-SW TONIGHT TO SE-S THU. WW3 AND SWAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 148 PM WED...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA WATERS FRIDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE GA COAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND IN SOUTHEAST WATERS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM |
| #512856 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 330 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED...ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND SEEING SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG IT. WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...ANY DEEPER STORMS COULD BECOME SVR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT...AND SVR TSTM WATCH POSTED FOR MOST OF AREA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INLAND INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN EXPECT LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT SHIFTING TO COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPR LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. LCL STRATUS/FOG PSBL AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD THREAT. MIN TEMPS MAINLY MID-UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIAL UPR LOW WILL BE N OF AREA BUT SECONDARY TROF APPROACHING FROM W DURING AFTN. COULD SEE LINGERING ACTIVITY ALONG COAST IN MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE DURING AFTN. LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY AND KEPT POPS IN 20/30 RANGE. MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS...MAINLY MID 80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 225 PM WED...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL START TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TRHROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. PREFER PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. 5H TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS DURING THE WEEK...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS PRETTY WEAK WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE GA COAST. NAM RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SREF WEAKER THAN NAME BUT HAS THE LOW INLAND AND THE ECMWF STRONGEST BUT MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN OTHER MODELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS INDICATED IN THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. 6Z GFS DID SHOW THIS LOW. HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF GRIDS AT THE APPROPRIATE TIMES. WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE LOW DOES. ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING IN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THREATEN MAINLY KPGV AND KISO THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED OTHERWISE. MVFR VSBYS AND SCT STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO LIMIT IFR THREAT. VFR PREVAILING THU...OUTSIDE OF SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT IN AFTN. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 136 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INLAND TROF WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM E. LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS...MAINLY 10-15 KT...EXPECTED DURING PERIOD BUT WILL SEE SLIGHT SHIFT OF WINDS FROM S-SW TONIGHT TO SE-S THU. WW3 AND SWAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 148 PM WED...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER AREA WATERS FRIDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE GA COAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. EAST AND NORTHEAST WIND IN SOUTHEAST WATERS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. EXPECT WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY END OF PERIOD AS LOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM |
| #512857 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1120 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED POPS TO 20% FOR REST OF MORNING BUT KEPT LIKELY FOR AFTN. EARLY MORNING COASTAL ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NE OF AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LIMITING INSOLATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. UPR LOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST AT LEAST SCT DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZS INDICATING SLGT RISK SVR FOR MAINLY HAIL THREAT. SVR PARATEMETERS FROM MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW VIL OF DAY AROUND 55 AND 50 DBZ CORE HEIGHT OF 28000 FT. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT SCT DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY-MID AFTN AS CURRENT CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO THIN AND LIFT N...BUT MID-LEVLE DRY SLOTTING MAY LIMIT WDSPRD DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED INTO 80S WITH SOME SUN THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER/STORM DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS . && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUED TO TREND WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THU AND WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE...MAINLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M/U80S INLAND TO M/U70S COAST...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS WE HAD EARLIER FORECAST. WILL BE FORECASTING A MAINLY VFR TAF THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS. LATER TONIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THU AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE WITH UPDATE. SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRAD ALONG COAST PRODUCING S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT...CONTINUING THRU AFTN. SEAS ON TRACK...MAINLY 3-5 FT. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 3 TO 5 FT SE SWELL WITH PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST THU BRINGING S/SE WINDS AOB 15KT ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE HIGH PRES MOVING NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AOB 15 KT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD PER LATEST SWAN AND WAVEWATCH...THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME |
| #512858 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 123 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY....DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS ALMOST ALL DISSIPATED OR MOVED WEST OF THE AREA WITH CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW SHOWERS VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE COAST SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND LOOKOUT. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SENDING SOME INTERESTING SIGNALS MAINLY THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE ATYPICAL I.E. NOT FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH A MAXIMUM DURING PEAK HEATING AND A MINIMUM LATE AT NIGHT. TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM AND THEY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND 12Z OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL STAND PAT WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP 40% OVERNIGHT POPS AS UPPER LOW IS NOW APPROACHING NORTH CAROLINA WHICH WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DAWN ACROSS EASTERN NC. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE LOG LIKE LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD/MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS AREA WITH WEAK THERMAL TROFFING INLAND EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING ON...AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR INLAND SECTIONS. HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WED EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THU AND WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WED. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE...MAINLY FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S. THICKNESSES INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M/U80S INLAND TO M/U70S COAST. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z AVIATION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. SEEMS THAT WIDESPREAD DEBRIS MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG/STRATUS PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM 08Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FROM 12Z-19Z WITH A MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS REMARK 12Z-19Z THEN NOTHING AFTER 19Z. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED WED AND THU AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE LOW LIFTS N THU WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SE SWELL WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE...WITH SEAS PERSISTING 3-5 FT TODAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM TUE...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGING S/SWLY WINDS AOB 15 ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE HIGH PRES SLIDING NWD ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE ELY BLO 15 KT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR THE MOST PART BUT COULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT SRN WATERS (AS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH) SAT AND SUN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME |
| #512845 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:59 AM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 351 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY....DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. STARTING TO SEE STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN NC BY DAWN AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SENDING SOME INTERESTING SIGNALS MAINLY THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE ATYPICAL I.E. NOT FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH A MAXIMUM DURING PEAK HEATING AND A MINIMUM LATE AT NIGHT. TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM AND THEY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z BEGINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z. WILL INITIALIZE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE (THROWING OUT THE WOEFULLY LOW GFS MAV MOS WHICH INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE AT BEST) DECREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL DRYING PUNCHING NORTH INTO EASTERN NC. SPC HAS INCLUDED EASTERN NC IN "SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE" TODAY. COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF -15C/-16C COMBINED WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS BELOW 12000 FT...LIS OF -9 TO -11 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR (AROUND 20 KT) WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE EARLY INITIATION OF STORMS AND WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. WILL GO DOWN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE WARM MAV (TOO DRY) UPPER 80S AND THE COOLER MET LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER/STORM DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS . && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUED TO TREND WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THU AND WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE...MAINLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M/U80S INLAND TO M/U70S COAST...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z AVIATION GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM INDICATING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. SEEMS THAT WIDESPREAD DEBRIS MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG/STRATUS PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM 08Z-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FROM 12Z-19Z WITH A MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. THUS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS REMARK 12Z-19Z THEN NOTHING AFTER 19Z. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THU AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 3 TO 5 FT SE SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST THU BRINGING S/SE WINDS AOB 15KT ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE HIGH PRES MOVING NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AOB 15 KT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD PER LATEST SWAN AND WAVEWATCH...THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME |
| #512844 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:59 AM 23.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 631 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY....DIFFICULT FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST OCCASIONALLY SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE COMMUNITIES. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PEAK AROUND 12Z THEN DIMINISH AS HEATING BEGINS AND THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPMENT ON LAND. EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SENDING SOME INTERESTING SIGNALS MAINLY THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL BE ATYPICAL I.E. NOT FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH A MAXIMUM DURING PEAK HEATING AND A MINIMUM LATE AT NIGHT. TOOK A QUICK LOOK AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM AND THEY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AROUND 12Z BEGINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A MINIMUM OF ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z. THE 00Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE SIMILAR BUT THEY INDICATED MUCH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THEN WE THOUGHT 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO HAVE HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING PRECIPITATION WITH UPPER LOWS SO WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH 19Z AREA WIDE (THROWING OUT THE WOEFULLY LOW GFS MAV MOS WHICH INDICATED ONLY A 20% CHANCE AT BEST) DECREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL DRYING PUNCHING NORTH INTO EASTERN NC WHICH COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS INCLUDED EASTERN NC IN "SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE" TODAY. COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF -15C/-16C COMBINED WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS BELOW 12000 FT...SURFACE LI`S OF -9 TO -11 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR (AROUND 20 KT) WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE EARLY INITIATION OF STORMS AND WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. WILL GO DOWN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE WARM MAV (TOO DRY?) UPPER 80S AND THE COOLER MET LOW 80S AND FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY A CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER/STORM DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. COULD SEE SOME FOG FORMATION DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS . && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUED TO TREND WITH HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THU AND WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION HOWEVER COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE...MAINLY FRI AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING WWD OVER THE FLA PENINSULA AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M/U80S INLAND TO M/U70S COAST...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...DEBRIS CLOUDS LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS WE HAD EARLIER FORECAST. WILL BE FORECASTING A MAINLY VFR TAF THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS. LATER TONIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THU AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE STATES FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 3 TO 5 FT SE SWELL WITH PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST THU BRINGING S/SE WINDS AOB 15KT ACROSS THE WATERS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE HIGH PRES MOVING NORTHWARD RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AOB 15 KT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD PER LATEST SWAN AND WAVEWATCH...THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME |
