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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #512934 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1010 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... LATE SEABREEZE COLLISION OVER LAKE COUNTY SPARKED A FEW SHRAS BTWN MASCOTTE AND LADY LAKE...BUT THESE HAVE ALREADY BURNED OUT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL: 00Z KTBW RAOB MEASURED PW VALUES JUST BARELY OVER AN INCH. NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WEAKLY CONVERGENT UPR LVLS...AND DRY MID LVLS. SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FL WILL GENERATE A STEADY E/SE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT...OCNL GUSTS OVER 20MPH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SWD. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO FORM IN CONVERGENT EDDIES DOWNWIND OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...WHILE THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE SE FLOW MAY PUSH A COUPLE OF THEM ONSHORE S OF THE CAPE. HOWEVER...THESE TYPES OF SHRAS TEND TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT WITH PRECIP GENERALLY BLO 0.10". THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. && .AVIATION... VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: THRU 24/06Z...COASTAL SITES OCNL SFC WND G22KTS S OF KTTS...BRIEF CIGS BTWN FL020-030 S OF KVRB. BTWN 24/06Z-24/13Z...COASTAL SITES CIGS FL030-040 S OF KTTS...OCNL CIGS FL020-030. BTWN 24/13Z-24/16Z...CIGS LIFTING AOA FL100. AFT 24/16Z...SFC WND G20-22KTS ALL SITES. && .MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLC IS SURPRISINGLY TIGHT...GEOSTROPHIC APPROX TABLES SUGGEST IT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING 15-20KTS. INDEED...BUOY009/012 HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS IN THAT RANGE FOR THE PAST FEW HRS...BACKED UP BY COASTAL OB SITES WITH OCNL SFC WND G20KTS S OF THE CAPE. SUSPECT THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER CUBA IS PRESSING A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WILL ISSUE A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WITH THE UPDATE (EXCEPT FOR NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS)... INCREASING SFC WINDS TO MEET CRITERIA. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512848 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:29 PM 23.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 324 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING VERY DRY MID-UPPER LEVELS. THERE HAS BEEN LESS VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH THAN YESTERDAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY INTERACTION SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME MIXING HAS LOWERED SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS THERE THIS EVENING. THU...TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS SHOWN BY THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE THAT IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS SHOWN NUDGING NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AND THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING THERE. MOISTENING MIGHT NOT WORK AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS INDICATES. FRI...THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A MORE STABLE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MOS POPS DROP OFF TO 20 PERCENT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DIFFER FROM MOS. SAT-TUE...12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK LOW WELL EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INITIALLY...THEN PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE DRIER WEST SIDE SAT...BUT MOISTURE MIGHT INCREASE FOR SUN-MON. RIGHT NOW WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS BUT IT IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. && .AVIATION... THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS UNSTABLE TODAY DUE TO A PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ALOFT. VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH IS THEREFORE WEAKER. STILL EXPECT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO GENERATE SOME STORMS BUT THEY LOOK TO BE INLAND KMLB-KSUA. SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS KSFB-KMCO-KISM AND KLEE EXIST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...PROBABLY STRADDLING 00Z BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT THU WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST COAST IN THE MORNING AND INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-THU...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AS INVERTED TROUGH PRESSES FROM CUBA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME SOUTHEAST TO EAST. SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE 10-15 KNOTS. AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH. FRI-MON...THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS INDICATE SURFACE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRI-SAT THEN DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH LARGE BLOWUPS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLE...THESE KINDS OF SYSTEMS OFTEN DO NOT EVOLVE AS THE MODELS DEPICT. PRESENTLY WE HAVE BREEZY ONSHORE AND POOR BOATING INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. && .FIRE WEATHER... THU-MON...ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO RAISE MIN RH VALUES TO 45 PERCENT OR HIGHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP FRI AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 86 74 86 / 10 40 10 20 MCO 70 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 20 MLB 74 87 77 87 / 20 40 20 20 VRB 72 87 74 87 / 30 50 20 20 LEE 71 91 72 91 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 71 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 20 ORL 72 90 74 91 / 10 30 10 20 FPR 72 86 74 87 / 30 50 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512846 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:53 AM 23.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 942 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW THAT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND ONE INCH. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTH...1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH UNPERTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL QUITE COOL FOR THE WARM SEASON (MINUS 10 TO 11 AT 500MB). THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE READINGS WILL RISE TO AROUND MINUS 9 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH RIDGE AXIS VICINITY CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE FLOW IS STILL ELEVATED AROUND 15 KNOTS DUE TO NOCTURNAL INCREASE...BUT THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO NUDGE NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER CUBA/FLORIDA STRAITS. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD CONFINE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING AS EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE ALONG/WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...40 PERCENT IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT NOT MUCH...MAYBE BRINGING SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO SOUTH OSCEOLA AND SOUTHWEST BREVARD. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE PLANNED. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH CALLS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH LOOKS GOOD. && .AVIATION... EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE 15-16Z AND POSSIBLY AFFECT KSUA-KFPR. THINK THAT ISOLATED STORMS NORTHWARD TO KVRB-KMLB WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LATE DAY EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 00Z...SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN AND AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. && .MARINE... TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN. THE NOCTURNAL WIND SPEED INCREASE WILL WANE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND 10 KNOTS OR LESS OF GRADIENT FLOW WILL THEN OCCUR...THOUGH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO AROUND 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST IS FORECAST AGAIN. ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING USUALLY MEANS THAT DURING DAYTIME HEATING SIMILAR COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER LAND...FROM ABOUT LAKE KISSIMMEE TO BLUE CYPRESS LAKE AND SOUTHWARD TO OKEECHOBEE. STORM MOTION LOOKS SLOW AND ERRATIC WITH A FEW STRONGER ONES PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY...BUT EXPECT THAT ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO LOWER DEW POINTS BELOW MOS VALUES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES 30-35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...NOT QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY THOUGH. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #512829 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 23.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 404 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS CENT FL. RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHICH WILL MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA TAKING THE COLD POOL ALOFT WITH IT. AS A RESULT...500 TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOWER. A LATE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR MAY SPARK ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 80S COAST. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND S/SE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SFC TROUGH LIFTING NORTH. THURS...WEAK LOW/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FL STRAIGHTS INTO THURS WITH ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHENING. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AFT. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FRI-SAT...INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED E/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME AS TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGH/LOW TEMP VALUES WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND... STAYING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SUN-TUES...00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LEAVE THE LONG TERM FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT...SHOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR THROUGH 13Z. S/SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN ONSHORE (E/SE) NEAR 15 KNOTS ALG THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE A HIGHER (SCATTERED) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF KMLB AS EARLY AS 14Z-15Z. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL DECREASE BY SUNRISE. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL TURN ONSHORE (E/SE) BY AFTN BEHIND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND INCREASE NEAR 15 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST... AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THIS WILL SETTLE BACK TO 3 FT BY LATE AFTN. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. THURS-SUN...WEAK LOW/INVERTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD OF CUBA THROUGH THE FL STRAIGHTS INTO THURS. THIS TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM FLORIDA. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN EXACT STRENGTH OF E/NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS LOOK LIKELY... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. HOWEVER HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER SEAS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS. MIN RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS DAYS BUT WILL STILL SEE AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY AGAIN DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT. 20 FT WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTN PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT AND SOME INCREASE IN SPEED BUT THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEWPOINT/RH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 70 86 75 / 20 20 30 20 MCO 91 70 91 73 / 30 20 30 10 MLB 85 73 87 78 / 30 20 30 20 VRB 85 73 87 76 / 30 20 40 20 LEE 92 71 91 73 / 20 20 30 10 SFB 92 71 91 73 / 20 20 30 10 ORL 92 72 91 74 / 20 20 30 10 FPR 85 73 86 75 / 30 20 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
