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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #513716 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 26.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS IS SINKING INTO THE BAY FROM THE MAINLAND. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE KEYS. THERE IS A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE KEYS. WINDS RANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST...BUT SPEEDS ARE GENTLE TO VERY INFREQUENTLY MODERATE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRIEF VARIATION OF WIND DIRECTIONS. BUT EXPECT A PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. THE LOCAL EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ABOVE ROUGHLY 9000 FEET. BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THANKS TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT. WE REMAIN UNSTABLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. WITH THE CURRENTLY COVERAGE ON KBYX...ESPECIALLY THE CLUSTER HEADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY AND NEAR GULF WATERS...WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE POPS/COVERAGE. BUT WHEN THIS CLUSTER EVENTUALLY RAINS OUT...ISOLATED/SLGT CHC SHOULD SUFFICE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS AREA...BUT A RECENTLY SENT ZONE UPDATE CONTAINED A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION. && .MARINE... AS WITH THE ZONES...WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE WINDS ADVERTISED IN ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO GOING VARIABLE. AWAY FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS...WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS DROPPING THROUGH THE BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF/ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA THROUGH THEN. && .AVIATION... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA BAY...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAY DELIVER A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS SHOULD THEY MAKE IT TO THE ISLAND TERMINALS. MARATHON HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #513633 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 26.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 359 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY...KBYX AND KAMX RADARS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION... MOST SPECIFICALLY OVER MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS. CLOUD LINE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AFTER MIDDAY OVER THE LOWER KEYS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS... AND COOLING SOME LOCATIONS PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...AS SUCH A FEW STATIONS ARE RECORDING COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ONLY TO THE MID 80S RATHER THAN UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 70 TO 75 ACROSS ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE RAMPED UP OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN GULF ZONES...AS OUTFLOW OFF THE MAINLAND AMPLIFIED THE LOCAL WIND FIELD TEMPORARILY AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT IN PARTICULAR. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDING SHOWED A BIT MORE MOISTURE THIS MORNING WISH COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO GREATER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS THAT DEVELOPED. .SHORT TERM...OUR PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS JUST GETTING STARTED AS THE KEY`S LOCATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MAINTAIN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY. LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS ACTUALLY REVERSE A BIT TOMORROW SETTING UP A POTENTIAL FOR REVERSE COULD LINES... BUT WITH A DIMINISHED VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE...THE TWO WILL COMPETE FOR THE FATES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER KEYS TOMORROW. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... BERYL WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY IN THE ZONAL MID LATITUDE FLOW AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL FLOW WILL RESUME THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESUMES ITS NORMAL ROLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATES WITH BERYL THROUGH THAT TIME. CONSIDERED RAISING POPS JUST OVER THE LOWER KEYS AS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST DUE TO CLOUD LINES... BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER DATA TO MAKE THAT CALL. AFTER MONDAY... RAIN CHANCES RISE A BIT TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT VALUE ACROSS THE BOARD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES...REFRESHMENTS...AND UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. && .MARINE...LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BEFORE A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS BY MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN... HOWEVER AN EXTERNAL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL BE PRODUCED BY BERYL IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA STRAITS ZONES MOSTLY EAST OF CRAIG KEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THIS SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LARGER THAN 4 FEET AT AROUND 10 SECONDS. && .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1992...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 20 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #513572 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:59 AM 26.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1125 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY...BY VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION... WITH JUST A FEW DENSE CLOUD LINES SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. KBYX SHOWS THAT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORMING NORTH OF THE KEYS... BUT A LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 80S...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AROUND THE REGION. CMAN WINDS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. .SHORT TERM... A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE KEYS LOCATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CREATE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY... BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... BERYL WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY IN THE ZONAL MID LATITUDE FLOW AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL FLOW WILL RESUME. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR 20 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATES WITH BERYL THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT... RAIN CHANCES RISE A BIT TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT VALUE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST... NO UPDATE REQUIRED TO THE PUBLIC PRODUCTS. && .MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH A GENERAL SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MTH THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT EYW THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT EYW THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BRIEF...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1882...2.89 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 130 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #513506 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 26.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 510 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO...APPARENTLY OWING TO A DEEPER MOIST LAYER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SLIGHTLY MORE CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SERVING AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE FOR LOW- LEVEL LIFTING...AS CAN BE DISCERNED BY AN APPRAISAL OF RECENT DOPPLER RADAR BASE REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. A LARGE-SCALE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BIGHT...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...WITH A LOWER- TROPOSPHERIC WARM CORE...IS LOCATED NEARLY BENEATH THE CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT...AND NOW IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE CELLS AT THE SURFACE FLANK SUBTROPICAL STORM BOTH EASTWARD AND WESTWARD. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR A COL IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...AND CONSEQUENTLY...LOCAL BREEZES ARE GENTLE. A GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AT 0700 UTC INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED ATMOSPHERE WITH A MOIST LAYER EXTENDING UP TO NEAR 6000 FEET ABOVE GROUND. CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR LAY ABOVE. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK WINDS IN THE MEAN LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BECOME WEAKER AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION INITIATION LOCALLY WILL FOCUS NEAR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND TERRAIN-INDUCED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...AND BE LIMITED BY DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING IN NEARLY THE SAME POSITION. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN WESTWARD...BEFORE MAKING A U-TURN...AND THENCE MOVING AWAY NORTHEASTWARD BY MID-WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK OR NEUTRAL. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAILY MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE AVAILABLE...AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVERALL WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED. THEREFORE...WE ARE RETAINING 20-30 PERCENT 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SEVEN DAYS...DUE TO PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION CELLS. && .MARINE... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESENCE OF BERYL IN THIS AREA WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES RANGING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH. BREEZES WILL TURN FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND FRESHEN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS BERYL MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINLY EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 20 MARATHON 89 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
