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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #513704 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:32 PM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 5 MPH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE STORM. WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD. WILL GO AHEAD AND DISSEMINATE MINOR ZONE AND COASTAL UPDATES AS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED WITH 11PM BERYL ADVISORY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 15G25KT THEN BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR ALL AREAS BUT A STRAY TS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN BANDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. && .MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FEET BY MORNING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WAVE PERIODS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 10 SECONDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT OUTER RAINBANDS FROM BERYL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SCA FOR ALL BUT MOST SOUTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS TAKES EFFECT TONIGHT AT 10PM FOR INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT KEEPING LVORI VALUES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. SMOKE SHOULD DISPERSE FAIRLY WELL SO NOT MUCH THREAT FOR FOG/SMOKE CAUSING VISIBILITY ISSUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WETTER PATTERN MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE USHERED IN BY SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...APPROACHING THE NORTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NHC TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF BERYL ONSHORE NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND A TROUGH KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH WIND DIRECTION BACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST INTO SUNDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS BERYL DRIFTS WESTARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #513644 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 421 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... .DISCUSSION... THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPRESSED REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL APPROACH THE COAST...MAINLY NORTHWARD OF CAPE CANAVERAL INTO VOLUSIA COUNTY. HAVE LOW END CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS...MAINLY AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY NEAR SUNRISE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. SUNDAY...LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST DAYTIME SUNDAY. THIS TRACK EXPECTED TO BRING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/WINDS TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL. WINDS WILL BACK TO NW-W AND BECOME WINDY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS... BREEZY IN THE SOUTH. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO RAISE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VOLUSIA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE DISTRIBUTED HIGHEST POPS NORTH (CATEGORICAL) AND TREND DOWN TO HIGH END SCATTERED IN THE FAR SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT. SUN NIGHT-TUE...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT TRACK THEN TAKES BERYL INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MON NIGHT...EVENTUALLY BEING PULLED BACK OUT TO SEA TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR STATIONARY IN MOVEMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RAINBANDS SUN EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BERYL RELATED SHOWERS/STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUN NIGHT 10-15 MPH FALLING TO 5-10 MPH INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON MON. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION)...WLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OVER N CENTRAL FL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POP OVER THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE. LINGERING WLY FLOW COMPONENT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHCS WILL REVERT DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH ~27/06Z...THEN SOME TEMPO REDUCTIONS STARTING NORTHWARD OF KTIX THROUGH VOLUSIA COUNTY AS OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL APPROACH THE COAST. REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS INCREASE IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION SUNDAY AS BERYL APPROACHES. ALSO EXPECT NW-W WINDS INCREASING WITH SUSTAINED 15-18KT WITH G25-30KT...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD KTIX...OCNL GUSTS TO TS FORCE POSSIBLE NEAR KDAB AFT ~27/20Z. && .MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEAR-OFFSHORE LEGS AND HAVE ALSO HOISTED AN SCA FOR ALL BUT SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG STARTING 10 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD NW-W AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO THE NE FL COASTLINE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS...INCREASING STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUN NIGHT-THU...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST SUN EVENING...GRADUALLY/SLOWLY MOVING INLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BEING PULLED BACK OUT TO SEA LATE TUE...CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK FROM THERE. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS (NORTH LEGS) REMAINING IN EFFECT INTO MON AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OFFSHORE LEGS/NEAR SHORE LEG NORTHWARD FROM SEBASTIAN INLET INTO MON NIGHT. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. AFTER BERYL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THU THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE EAST AND SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE/SUBSIDE THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WETTER PATTERN MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE USHERED IN BY SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...APPROACHING THE NORTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST NHC TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF BERYL ONSHORE NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND A TROUGH KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH WIND DIRECTION BACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST INTO SUNDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS BERYL DRIFTS WESTARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. && .HYDROLOGY...AREA IS INITIALLY STARTING OUT QUITE DRY WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL CLASSIFIED IN A DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MID WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS RECEIVING MORE PERSISTENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER CENTER OF BERYL PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TROFFING EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 86 73 / 20 30 90 70 MCO 92 72 89 71 / 10 10 70 60 MLB 87 74 88 73 / 20 20 60 60 VRB 87 73 88 74 / 20 10 60 60 LEE 93 70 89 72 / 10 10 80 60 SFB 92 72 89 72 / 10 10 80 60 ORL 92 72 89 73 / 10 10 70 60 FPR 87 72 87 73 / 20 10 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #513542 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 AM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 925 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SW OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND NHC TRACK INDICATE PRECIP BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL NOT AFFECTING EC FL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP GIVEN LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIMMED MENTIONABLE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ONLY WITH N-NE WIND COMPONENT IN LOWER LEVELS AND A FEW COASTAL SHRA MOVING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. MAXES NEAR THE EAST COAST TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER 90S INLAND...EVEN A FEW MID 90S WELL INLAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE A WEST/SOUTHWEST MOTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTER PERIPHERY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAINLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BREEZY CONDS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE WITH N/NE WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFT. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL HAS THE CENTER APPROACHING 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS POINT TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS OUTER BANDS OF BERYL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR INTERIOR UP TO 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WILL BACK TO THE W/NW AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. SUN-TUE...DIRECT IMPACTS FROM BERYL WILL MANIFEST IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BERYL FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AFTER LANDFALL OVER NORTH FL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TO THE EAST. RATHER HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS TO FOCUS PCPN OVER ECFL...MOST PRINCIPALLY NORTH CENTRAL FLOIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK. REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS. WLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OVER N CENTRAL FL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POP OVER THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE. && .AVIATION...SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS PERSISTING BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY 14Z. PREVAILING VFR REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME THEN AFTER ~06Z SOME MVFR REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBY AS OUTER BANDS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. && .MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THE APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY FOR THE EXPECTED ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FOR LATE MORNING CWF...WILL ADD A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR BREVARD COUNTY OFFSHORE LEG...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 6 FT TODAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST SCA FOR AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE LEGS WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD AOA 7 FT IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. N/NE WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PRODUCE CONCERNS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD OF ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY...THE AREA IS INITIALLY STARTING OUT QUITE DRY WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL CLASSIFIED IN A DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MID WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS RECEIVING MORE PERSISTENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER CENTER OF BERYL PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND TROFFING EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #513488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 416 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE A WEST/SOUTHWEST MOTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTER PERIPHERY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAINLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BREEZY CONDS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE WITH N/NE WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFT. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL HAS THE CENTER APPROACHING 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS POINT TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS OUTER BANDS OF BERYL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR INTERIOR UP TO 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WILL BACK TO THE W/NW AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. SUN-TUE...DIRECT IMPACTS FROM BERYL WILL MANIFEST IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BERYL FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AFTER LANDFALL OVER NORTH FL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TO THE EAST. RATHER HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS TO FOCUS PCPN OVER ECFL...MOST PRINCIPALLY NORTH CENTRAL FLOIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK. REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS. WLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OVER N CENTRAL FL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POP OVER THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE. REST OF WEEK...LINGERING WLY FLOW COMPONENT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHCS WILL REVERT DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LOW INTO THE AFT WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z AS OUTER BANDS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY FOR THE EXPECTED ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUNDAY. TODAY/TONIGHT... BERYL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE W/SW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/NW AS BERYL CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS OUTER BANDS OF BERYL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SUN...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOW MOST DETERIORATION OVER THE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DURING SUNDAY ASCD WITH FORECAST ARRIVAL OF BERYL WIND FIELD. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SEA HGHTS. SPECIFIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUBJECT TO FUTURE MOVEMENTS AND INTENSITY OF BERYL BEFORE LANDFALL SUNDAY OVER NORTH FL. SEA HEIGHTS CURRENTLY FORECASTED ABOVE 7 FT OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHER SEAS OVER VOLUSIA CO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINING BELOW 7 FT BASED ON PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. BOATERS SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW FORECASTS OF BERYL THIS WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. N/NE WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PRODUCE CONCERNS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD OF ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE POSTING OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OR ALL OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 86 73 / 20 40 80 70 MCO 92 72 88 71 / 10 30 80 60 MLB 87 73 86 73 / 20 40 80 60 VRB 87 73 87 73 / 20 40 70 60 LEE 93 71 88 72 / 10 20 80 60 SFB 92 72 89 72 / 20 40 80 60 ORL 92 73 89 73 / 10 40 80 60 FPR 87 71 87 73 / 20 30 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #513489 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS... TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWLY FORMED SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE A WEST/SOUTHWEST MOTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTER PERIPHERY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAINLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BREEZY CONDS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE WITH N/NE WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFT. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF BERYL HAS THE CENTER APPROACHING 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS POINT TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS OUTER BANDS OF BERYL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR INTERIOR UP TO 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WILL BACK TO THE W/NW AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. SUN-TUE...DIRECT IMPACTS FROM BERYL WILL MANIFEST IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BERYL FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AFTER LANDFALL OVER NORTH FL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TO THE EAST. RATHER HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS TO FOCUS PCPN OVER ECFL...MOST PRINCIPALLY NORTH CENTRAL FLOIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK. REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS. WLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OVER N CENTRAL FL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POP OVER THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEE. REST OF WEEK...LINGERING WLY FLOW COMPONENT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH SOME DRYING INDICATED PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHCS WILL REVERT DOWNWARD BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... && .MARINE... ...MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY FOR THE EXPECTED ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUNDAY... TODAY/TONIGHT... BERYL CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE W/SW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/NW AS BERYL CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS OUTER BANDS OF BERYL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SUN...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOW MOST DETERIORATION OVER THE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DURING SUNDAY ASCD WITH FORECAST ARRIVAL OF BERYL WIND FIELD. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SEA HGHTS. SPECIFIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUBJECT TO FUTURE MOVEMENTS AND INTENSITY OF BERYL BEFORE LANDFALL SUNDAY OVER NORTH FL. SEA HEIGHTS CURRENTLY FORECASTED ABOVE 7 FT OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHER SEAS OVER VOLUSIA CO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINING BELOW 7 FT BASED ON PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. BOATERS SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW FORECASTS OF BERYL THIS WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. N/NE WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PRODUCE CONCERNS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD OF ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF RAIN FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE POSTING OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OR ALL OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 86 73 / 20 40 80 70 MCO 92 72 88 71 / 10 30 80 60 MLB 87 73 86 73 / 20 40 80 60 VRB 87 73 87 73 / 20 40 70 60 LEE 93 71 88 72 / 10 20 80 60 SFB 92 72 89 72 / 20 40 80 60 ORL 92 73 89 73 / 10 40 80 60 FPR 87 71 87 73 / 20 30 70 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
| #513444 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:23 AM 26.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1215 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... DVLPG STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ERN SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH A SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO GENERATE A STEADY NE BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL TAP A DRY AND SUPPRESSED AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP SKIES MCLR ACRS CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH PW VALUES ARND 1.5" AT KMFL...1.4" AT KTBW...AND 0.9" AT KJAX. RADAR SHOWS SMALL ISOLD SHRAS OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT NONE ARE SURVIVING VERY LONG ONCE THEY MOVE INTO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. ONE OR TWO MAY PUSH ONSHORE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE U60S/L70S AREAWIDE. PTCHY FOG/STRATUS PSBL TOWARDS SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ONGOING BRUSH FIRES. && .AVIATION... VFR ALL SITES. AFT 26/16Z...N/NE SFC WND G22-25KTS N OF KMLB-KISM... 18-22KTS S OF KMLB-KISM. && .MARINE... DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH A 3-4FT SWELL INTO LCL ATLC...KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THRU DAYBREAK. NEARSHORE 3-4FT...4-5FT OFFSHORE BUILDING TO 4-6FT. DOMINANT PD 8-9SEC. && .FIRE WX... LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SFC RH VALUES WILL GENERATE HIGH LVORI VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TREAT FOR DENSE SMOKE/FOG MIXTURE NEAR EXISTING/SMOLDERING WILDFIRES... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR NEAR INTERNATIONAL DRIVE. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ |
