Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995
#TD2 Now Entering SW Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued.
#TD2 Now Entering SW Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #513699 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:14 PM 26.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 904 PM EDT Sat May 26 2012 ...Subtropical Storm Beryl to make landfall near the FL-GA border Sunday night... ...Main threat for our area appears to be heavy rain potential... .UPDATE... After record or near record heat across the area today associated with offshore flow and subsidence around Subtropical Storm Beryl, a mostly clear and mild night is expected. The 5 pm forecast advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Beryl did not change much in track or intensity from the 11 am advisory, and neither has our current thinking. The previous discussion which still represents our current thinking follows below. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) There remains a split in the global models with regards to the evolution of Subtropical Storm Beryl. In one camp, the ECMWF maintains its previous solution that Beryl will stay east of I-75 after making landfall Sunday night, and essentially hug the GA coast on Monday as it turns back to the northeast and away from our region. In the other camp, the GFS, UKMET, and CMC forecast Beryl to enter the FL Panhandle before getting picked up by an approaching trough in the westerlies aloft. The ECMWF solution would give us very little in the way of wind, and would limit storm total rainfall to about 2 inches over the eastern fringes of our forecast area (and much less elsewhere). Thus it`s unlikely we would even have any flooding concerns. Also, being on the western side of the storm (the traditionally drier, weaker side) would likely limit any tornado threat. If the other guidance verifies, a portion of our forecast area (perhaps our North FL zones) could get 6 inches of rain, which would obviously open the door for flooding concerns. This scenario would also increase the threat for isolated tornadoes, and could even introduce the possibility that some sort of tropical storm watch or warning might be needed for a portion of our forecast area. Our forecast is close to the official NHC forecast, which is in between the two camps but a bit closer to the ECMWF`s solution. We expect high rain chances for much of our region (especially east of the Apalachicola River) beginning late Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday. We expect very little in the way of wind, except for some higher gusts possible in heavier showers or thunderstorms. Heavy rain is the main threat, and our Storm Total QPF has 2 to 4 inches in our eastern zones. Unless Beryl changes radically, the rain we get will probably not be an all-day rain event. It`s more likely there will be intermittent bands of showers and storms moving through our region, so it may still be possible to work in some outdoor activities for the Holiday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the next 24 hours. Surface winds are expected to remain in the 3-5kt range tonight preventing fog formation at the area terminals. Expect breezy NE winds to develop late tomorrow morning and become quite gusty at times (20-25 kts) in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but VLD has the greatest chance so included a tempo there after 19z. && .MARINE... Subtropical Storm Beryl, located about 290 miles east of Jacksonville at 8 pm EDT...had winds of 50 mph and was moving southwest at 6 mph. This storm will likely make landfall near the Florida Georgia border Sunday night. Winds and seas may reach small craft advisory levels Monday as this system moves farther inland across north Florida or south Georgia. Please monitor the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center before venturing out on the waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 92 71 85 70 / 0 30 50 70 60 Panama City 74 91 74 85 73 / 0 10 30 50 50 Dothan 71 95 71 88 70 / 0 10 20 60 40 Albany 71 92 71 88 70 / 0 30 40 70 60 Valdosta 69 87 70 86 69 / 0 40 60 80 70 Cross City 68 88 69 85 70 / 0 40 60 70 60 Apalachicola 70 89 74 81 72 / 0 20 50 60 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #513636 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 26.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 353 PM EDT Sat May 26 2012 ...Subtropical Storm Beryl to make landfall near the FL-GA border Sunday night... ...Main threat for our area appears to be heavy rain potential... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) An isolated shower/thunderstorm is possible early this evening but not enough to mention in zones. The cu field that has developed across the region this afternoon will diminish shortly after sunset. Min temps tonight will be around 70 most areas which will be a few degrees above seasonal levels. (Sunday through Tuesday) There remains a split in the global models with regards to the evolution of Subtropical Storm Beryl. In one camp, the ECMWF maintains its previous solution that Beryl will stay east of I-75 after making landfall Sunday night, and essentially hug the GA coast on Monday as it turns back to the northeast and away from our region. In the other camp, the GFS, UKMET, and CMC forecast Beryl to enter the FL Panhandle before getting picked up by an approaching trough in the westerlies aloft. The ECMWF solution would give us very little in the way of wind, and would limit storm total rainfall to about 2 inches over the eastern fringes of our forecast area (and much less elsewhere). Thus it`s unlikely we would even have any flooding concerns. Also, being on the western side of the storm (the traditionally drier, weaker side) would likely limit any tornado threat. If the other guidance verifies, a portion of our forecast area (perhaps our North FL zones) could get 6 inches of rain, which would obviously open the door for flooding concerns. This scenario would also increase the threat for isolated tornadoes, and could even introduce the possibility that some sort of tropical storm watch or warning might be needed for a portion of our forecast area. Our forecast is close to the official NHC forecast, which is in between the two camps but a bit closer to the ECMWF`s solution. We expect high rain chances for much of our region (especially east of the Apalachicola River) beginning late Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday. We expect very little in the way of wind, except for some higher gusts possible in heavier showers or thunderstorms. Heavy rain is the main threat, and our Storm Total QPF has 2 to 4 inches in our eastern zones. Unless Beryl changes radically, the rain we get will probably not be an all-day rain event. It`s more likely there will be intermittent bands of showers and storms moving through our region, so it may still be possible to work in some outdoor activities for the Holiday. .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Saturday) After Beryl makes an exit from the forecast area, no major concerns will exist for the rest of the forecast period. Models are hinting at the approach of a frontal system on Thursday into Friday. However, exact timing will be dictated by the evolution and departure of Beryl. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of a brief period of MVFR visibilities at VLD just before sunrise. scattered convection will be spreading from east to west ahead of Sub-Tropical Beryl Sunday. Some of this activity may reach VLD, ABY and TLH before 18z Sunday. Otherwise skies will be partly cloudy with northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range Sunday. && .MARINE... Despite the fact that Beryl will get close to our coastal waters Monday, the latest NWP guidance consensus keeps winds just below advisory levels. Obviously a significant change in track or intensity forecast would warrant concern for some sort of tropical storm watch or warning. && .FIRE WEATHER... The Red Flag Warning continues across most of the Florida Big Bend and interior portions of the panhandle this afternoon. Low level moisture will be increasing Sunday along with rain chances each day this upcoming week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 92 71 85 70 / 0 30 50 70 60 Panama City 74 91 74 85 73 / 0 10 30 50 50 Dothan 71 95 71 88 70 / 0 10 20 60 40 Albany 71 92 71 88 70 / 0 30 40 70 60 Valdosta 69 87 70 86 69 / 0 40 60 80 70 Cross City 68 88 69 85 70 / 0 40 60 70 60 Apalachicola 70 89 74 81 72 / 0 20 50 60 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. GM...None. && $$ |
| #513477 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:02 AM 26.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 357 AM EDT Sat May 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... At upper levels, The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified. This is highlighted by deep trough from extreme Eastern Pacific into Inter-Mountain region with axis down West Coast, ridging eastward to the eastern states with a high over AR/LA border, and a deep trough along Eastern seaboard into adjacent Atlc with a sub- tropical low off srn SC coast. This places the local area in cloud free subsidence zone between ridge and trough. During the next two days, amplified western trough tracks eastward with assocd low lifting newd towards MT forcing downstream ridge to build newd into Atlc beginning today, shunting SC low SWWD to along FL/GA coast by Sun evening. Locally for today, this translates to rising heights, increasing subsidence both from upstream building ridge and from west side of upper low, unseasonably warm temperatures, especially for the west half of forecast area. At lower levels, the main regional features are a 1022 mb high along mid- Atlc coast with axis swwd into Nrn Gulf. Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl was drifting westward located around 300 miles east of Charleston SC. && .NEAR TERM (Today through Sunday)... Today...Guidance has been too low on forecasting max temps recent days, and with strong subsidence expected, see no reason to diverge so will go a few degrees above guidance. So with ridge overhead, one final day of upper 90s with isolated pockets of near 100 degrees possible across inland areas,especially west of Apalachicola River. This would run 10 or more degrees above normal with some sites approaching record highs for this day. Although the airmass will be dry, some locations in the Panhandle and SE Alabama may see heat indices around 100 degrees. Record high for this date at Tallahassee Airport and at Apalachicola is 99 and 96 degrees respectively both set in 1953. Forecast highs for today are 97 and 90 respectively. Tonight...Patchy dense fog possible after midnight. Lows around 70 inland...low 70s at coast. A small chance for rain late ern most counties. Sunday...As Beryl reaches the NE FL coast by eve, assocd rainbands will begin to impact Ern local area. There will be a sharp west to east PoP gradient setting up. Some of the ern most rain could be briefly heavy. For now we have 20% PoPs for our western zones and 50-60% for our easternmost zones. Clouds and rain will lead to cool off. Highs mid 80s Ern most counties to low 90s Wrn most counties. .SHORT TERM (Sunday Night through Tuesday)... This period of the forecast is squarely focused on the evolution of Beryl and what that will mean for the Tallahassee forecast area. Most model guidance packages now agree that Beryl will make landfall near Jacksonville on Sunday evening and press inland over the course of 24 hours. There are two primary concerns with this storm; Winds and precipitation. With respect to winds, most model guidance packages keep wind speeds below tropical storm force as Beryl moves inland and gets to our eastern border counties. Official NHC forecast also keeps winds below tropical storm force as well. It appears at this point that winds will be somewhat elevated across the eastern portions of the CWA but remain below 34 knots. However, it must be noted that confidence in the wind forecast is low. Just a small increase in strength for Beryl could mean stronger winds will penetrate further inland and cause greater concern. Those in the eastern portions of our area should stay tuned to subsequent updates to the forecast. Rainfall is always a concern for a slow moving and weakening tropical system. Expect to see a highestest rainfall amounts in eastern portions of the area as precipiation will both arrive and depart from the east. At this point we believe the 2-3 inches will be common with higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches certainly possible in some locations. If these amounts fall over a short time period we will need to monitor for flooding. However, given how dry things are, it will take a lot to see such flooding. .LONG TERM (Monday night through next Saturday)... After Beryl makes an exit from the forcast area on Tuesday night, no major concerns will exist for the rest of the forecast period. Models are hinting at the approach of a frontal system on Thursday into Friday. However, exact timing will be dictated by the evolution and departure of Beryl. && .MARINE... Winds over the marine area are forecast to remain below small craft advisory levels over the entire forecast period. Beryl or its remnants should remain sufficiently north and east of marine area so only a minimal increase in winds will occur. Of course, if the system is stronger than forecast or moves west more quickly than currently anticipated, conditions over the marine area could deteriorate significantly from what is currently predicted. Mariners are encouraged to stay on top of the latest forecast updates over the holiday weekend, including the latest outlooks from the National Hurricane Center. && .AVIATION... Outside of the possibility of a couple of hours of MVFR conditions at KVLD around dawn, the upper level ridge sitting over our area will yield clear skies and VFR conditions through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A ridge of high pressure will build into the local region today. This will suppress cloud cover, raise temps and lower humidities. Also, dispersions will be high. A red flag warning remains in effect for this afternoon for portions of inland FL. For SE AL, altho the KBDI will remain above 500, humidity durations and 20 ft winds will fall a little short of red flag criteria. Therefore the watch was cancelled. The impacts of Beryl will begin to be felt on Sunday. The rain will preclude red flag conditions Sunday thru the upcoming work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 71 92 71 84 / 0 10 40 40 80 Panama City 92 74 89 72 86 / 0 0 30 30 70 Dothan 97 73 93 70 88 / 0 0 30 30 70 Albany 97 71 90 71 84 / 0 10 40 40 80 Valdosta 94 71 87 70 79 / 0 20 60 60 90 Cross City 93 71 87 69 80 / 0 20 60 60 90 Apalachicola 90 73 86 70 83 / 0 0 30 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Walton-Jackson- Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison. GM...None. && $$ |
