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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #513696 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:53 PM 26.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 835 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DECAYING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WESTERN LEE COUNTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF LEE THROUGH 745 PM EDT. AS NE FLOW ESTABLISHES TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN WARM WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE COAST. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. .PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 145 PM EDT TODAY... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF TAMPA. AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN...BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE WHERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN SITES OF KPGD...KFMY AND KRSW. QUICK SEA BREEZE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES SUNDAY AS SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHED THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KLAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 73 87 / 20 40 40 50 FMY 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 30 50 GIF 72 90 70 90 / 20 40 40 50 SRQ 73 88 73 88 / 20 30 30 50 BKV 67 90 70 88 / 20 50 40 50 SPG 78 88 77 87 / 20 40 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #513587 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 26.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF TAMPA. AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN...BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE WHERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE NHC TRACK DEPICTS BERYL DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. CURRENT POP FIELDS REFLECT THE GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH THE CENTER FORECASTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. FEW CHANGES ACTUALLY WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED OTHER THAN RAISING POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BUT MAY TREND COOLER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. BERYL EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING SHOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE GFS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A WELL DEFINED STRONG SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY DAY 7 AND WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLOSE THE PERIOD SO LEFT LOW POPS IN FORECAST. && .AVIATION... THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT PGD...FMY AND RSW...BUT FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED VCTS. THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 73 87 / 20 40 40 50 FMY 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 30 50 GIF 72 90 70 90 / 20 40 40 50 SRQ 73 88 73 88 / 20 30 30 50 BKV 67 90 70 88 / 20 50 40 50 SPG 78 88 77 87 / 20 40 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #513538 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:23 AM 26.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 920 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TBW SOUNDING INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH PCPW OF ONLY 0.90 INCHES. SOME INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AS U/L MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUB TROPICAL STORM BERYL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BEGINS TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... THE IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS AT PGD...FMY AND RSW WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT PGD... FMY AND RSW. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #513466 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:56 AM 26.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 250 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF NOW SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. FOR SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BERYL WILL BE PUSHED WEST SOUTHWESTWARD BY A HIGH TO ITS NORTH...STEERING IT TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO UP STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE NHC TRACK DEPICTS BERYL DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. CURRENT POP FIELDS REFLECT THE GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH THE CENTER FORECASTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. FEW CHANGES ACTUALLY WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED OTHER THAN RAISING POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BUT MAY TREND COOLER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. BERYL EXPECTED TO EXIT BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING SHOT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE GFS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A WELL DEFINED STRONG SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY DAY 7 AND WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLOSE THE PERIOD SO LEFT LOW POPS IN FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS KLAL TO AROUND 18 KTS. SEABREEZE TO IMPACT COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 17-18Z. LOW COVERAGE OF TSRA TODAY AND WILL MENTION VCTS FOR PGD-FMY-RSW LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON SEABREEZE. AFTER 02Z WINDS DIMINISH AND WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR IMPACTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AFTER 03Z SUN PUSHING TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. && .MARINE... WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS BUT THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW DAYS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE STORM. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS BUT COULD ALSO INCREASE SOME DUE TO THE STORM. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE FOR THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...SO NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 74 89 74 / 20 20 50 50 FMY 93 71 91 73 / 20 20 50 50 GIF 92 71 90 72 / 20 20 50 50 SRQ 90 72 88 73 / 20 20 50 50 BKV 91 68 90 71 / 20 20 50 50 SPG 90 77 88 77 / 20 20 50 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
