|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - ((Unknown Region)) Selection: |
| #514620 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1038 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NE OVER THE REGION. WANING INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING HAS ENDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK FRONT PASSES EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER AND MOVING EAST BY SUNRISE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH KGON POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. VFR WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WAVES JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... A BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514619 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 940 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE UPDATE IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS REGION OF MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST OF 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL JET DO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24 HRS ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID MRNG WED. WEAK TO MODERATE SE LLJ XPCTD TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS DVLPNG. FEW TO SCT COVERAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH OCCASIONAL BKN SKIES AT MVFR LEVELS. MORE PRONOUNCED CU DECK POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED...BUT VFR STILL XPCTD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI /SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES AT KLRD DUE TO STRONGEST PART OF LLJ BEING OVERHEAD/. MODERATE SE WINDS ALL TERMINALS WED ESPECIALLY DURING AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 92 75 90 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 VICTORIA 73 94 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 76 106 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 ALICE 73 98 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 ROCKPORT 78 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 73 103 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 KINGSVILLE 74 96 73 94 76 / 10 10 0 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 78 91 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514616 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1032 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...TD BERYL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NE OVER THE GA/SC BORDER AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TOWARD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL MOVING NE AND HUGGING THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE HEADING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC (CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF BERYL). HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80%) ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR NW ZONES)...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS (20-40%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WED EVENING AS BERYL HEADS OUT TO SEA BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WED REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE NC. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN IN A RAIN DEFICIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS SO THE GROUND CAN EASILY HANDLE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY WX. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPLY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRNT PUSHING INTO AND ACRS THE AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG. GOING WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT AT THIS TIME) FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FM FRI EVENG INTO ERLY SAT MORNG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHEST CHC POPS LINGER IN THE ENE CNTIES SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HI PRES WILL THEN BE CNTRD OVR THE GULF CST STATES AND FL FM SUN THRU TUE...WHILE WEAK TROFS...IN THE NRN STREAM SWING THRU THE REGION SUN NGT...AND AGAIN MON NGT THRU TUE. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE MORE CLDS FM SUN NGT THRU TUE...BUT KEEP THE FCST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S SAT AND SUN...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S MON AND TUE. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PRE FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE NW BORDERS OF THE FA AS OF 00Z WED. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...WINGS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THE LINE WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY INITIALLY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS MAKING ITS FORECAST ENE/NE TURN AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT FOR KECG AND POSSIBLY KORF. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TD WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VIS AND LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND BERYL PUSHES OUT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRI. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT...DUE TO S WNDS INCREASING THE SEAS TO 5 FT. OTHRWISE...GOING CLSR TO THE NAM12 WNDS THRU 12Z WED...THEN WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF NAM12 AND MOSGUIDE WNDS FM 15Z WED THRU THU WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF BERYL. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA FOR THE SRN TWO CSTL WTRS...ESPLY FOR INCREASING SEAS...FM BERYL WED NGT INTO ERLY THU. SW WNDS ON WED WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE ENE BY LATE WED...THEN BECOME NE THEN NNW FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI. THEN...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W LATE FRI...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU MIDDAY SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS |
| #514615 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1036 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT CARRYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE: ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED AS INHERITED FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED NICELY. JUST DID SOME MINOR MASSAGING OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE MOST PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCING STORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE MOVING EAST OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ELSEWHERE, MAINLY AROUND BANGOR AND FURTHER NORTH AROUND CARIBOU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT, THOUGH IT APPEARS NOT ENOUGH RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN MINOR FLOODING. STILL, ESPECIALLY WITH IT BEING NIGHTTIME, USE CAUTION IF TRAVELLING SINCE YOU DON`T KNOW THE DEPTH OF THE WATER. 730 PM UPDATE: STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE, RIDING ALONG AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER IS NOT REALLY WEAKENING THESE STORMS. THUS, BEEFED UP QPF AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE, JUST SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALLER STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AS WELL, BUT THESE ARE HAVING A BIT MORE TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST BECAUSE OF A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ALOFT FURTHER NORTH. THE WHOLE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT RAINFALL TONIGHT BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP TOMORROW. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS HOLDING DAMP AND CHILLY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IS PULLING VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARD OUR REGION. THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LOW AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN MAINE CLOSER TO THE SOURCE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE OVER THE COLDER AIR. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR SOME AREAS EVEN IN THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH BUT COULD ABOUT TO MORE THAN AN INCH WITHIN THE PATHS OF ANY STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS ON TRACK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION IS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING THUS LIMITING THE OVERNIGHT COOLING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MAINE AND PUSH IT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT COASTAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THURSDAY. NORTHERN MAINE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RAIN...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLING MID LEVELS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD ON TO MENTION OF THUNDER. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST STATED...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY. HOWEVER AN OVERALL UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR BANGOR UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF CAR AND HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ALL SITES. PRECIP MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM. SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: NO SIG WX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN, FOG AND SHOWERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER |
| #514610 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 927 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE... SEE BELOW. && .DISCUSSION... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND WILL MAKE A SHORT TERM UPDATE FOR CLEAR SKIES. SOME CLOUDS WILL FORM LATE NIGHT AGAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF CWA. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOWED SOME OF THE SMOKE FROM THE WHITEWATER-BALDY FIRE ALOFT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT HAZE IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE FCST IS ON TRACK. 04 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514609 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1031 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL STEADILY TRACK NORTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS ARE BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD. THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM CHS INDICATES PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...WHERE THE BEST CONFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR. HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 6 AM...AS THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL HAVE ENDED FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED HELICITY AND SHEAR NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY 01Z...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ENHANCED RAIN BANDS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WITH HOURLY TRENDS. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TONIGHT TO NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF BERYLS CIRCULATION WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL HELP TO DRAW BERYL TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF BERYL AND AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES IN...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. IN FACT WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AND 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF BERYL...AND WE CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AMPLE INSOLATION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR GENERALLY IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE PRETTY VIGOROUS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORGANIZING TO THE WEST. THE STRONG UPPER TROF AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHERLY UPPER JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING FOR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MIXED...BUT GENERALLY FAVORS BRINGING THE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COMPLEXITY OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT IS AT A VERY HIGH LEVEL...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WOBBLING RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION. SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS...PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT UNTIL BERYL PASSES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS AS RAIN BANDS SHIFT NORTHWARD. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER MID MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND NW SURFACE WINDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL BE IMPACTED YET AGAIN BY BERYL...AS THE DEPRESSION PASSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING TRACK TIMING THAT SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND BERYL...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WINDS WITHIN RAIN BANDS...WILL GENERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE FREQUENCY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY HEADLINES HIGHER THAN A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FT...TRENDING HIGHER FARTHER FROM THE COASTLINE. IN ADDITION...THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS...MARINERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTREME CARE IF OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TD BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED JUST INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING AT THIS TIME AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE STEADILY AWAY THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL IMPROVE. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME QUITE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT SCA/S ARE NOT LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND TRAINING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330. && $$ |
| #514608 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1020 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER NEAR THE SC/GA BORDER. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1015 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC...THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE DAY WED...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SE-NW WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514607 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL BY SEVERAL HOURS. AN OUTER BAND OF RAIN HAS LARGELY EVAPORATED AS IT HAS MOVED NORTH INTO THE PEE DEE REGION WITH MANY OBSERVATION SITES SHOWING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE UPPER GEORGIA AND LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS BERYL IS "FEELING" WATER AND WIND GUSTS HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED AS HIGH AS 33 KNOTS AT THE CHARLESTON EXECUTIVE AIRPORT (KJZI). WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BERYL MOVES UP THIS WAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 PM FOLLOWS... THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TD BERYL FEATURED VERY FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NO CHANGES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE CENTER CROSSES CAPE FEAR EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND THEREFORE WILL NOT AFFECT LAND. THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z/18Z RUNS OF THE GFS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF BERYL. THE 18Z NAM WAS LARGELY IGNORED AS IT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND DOES SOME INEXPLICABLE THINGS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALMOST CLEARED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MASS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION SHORTLY...AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE LARGEST PROBLEM BERYL WILL THROW AT US...AND OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS STORM-TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ISOLATED AREAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RECEIVE MUCH MORE...POTENTIALLY 6-8 INCHES...WITH FLOODING DEVELOPING IN THESE REGIONS. IT`S JUST NOT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH BERYL...THERE`S ALSO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TO DEAL WITH. A JET STREAK ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS TROUGH AT 300-500 MB WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SINCE WE`RE AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WIND MAXIMUM IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LIFT COUPLING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT FORCED BY BERYL`S SURFACE CIRCULATION...MAKING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL A VERY GOOD BET. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF BERYL. WITH OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW PUSHING 80 DEGREES THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ROTATION IN CONVECTIVE CELLS. SPC OUTLOOKS SHOW "5 PERCENT" FOR TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 69-74 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...THE EFFECTS OF BERYL WILL BASICALLY BE THE SAME. STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN EFFECT TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A BULLS-EYE OF PCP TO THE NORTH OF LOW CENTER AS IT RIDES UP THE COAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRING UP THROUGH COASTAL SC EARLY WED MORNING AND UP INTO NC THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE RAINFALL REACH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND AS MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UP THROUGH OUR LOCAL CWA. THE CENTER SHOULD BE JUST OVER CAPE FEAR EARLY AFTN WED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LIFT BERYL OFF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THEREFORE RAP AROUND DRIER AIR BY LATE DAY WED IN DEEP NW WIND FLOW...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD OF BERYL THROUGH WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP TO 2.4 INCHES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON NORTH HALF OF BERYL. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WILL SEE 0 TO 1KM HELICITY VALUES UP TO 300 JUST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH THIS LOW LEVEL VEERING CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TORNADO...BUT OVERALL MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND RAINY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WED. EXPECT GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WED MORNING UP TO 20 MPH SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW BY LATE AFTN REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS INLAND WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NE TO THE N-NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND PCP TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 BUT MAY SHOOT UP LATE AFTN INLAND AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN ON THE BACK END OF BERYL. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES BY WED EVENING AND LESS THAN AN INCH BY THURS MORNING. NOT COUNTING ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHWR WITH JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL FROM BERYL. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF PCP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THURS AFTN BUT INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL HAVE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON THURS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90 ON THURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH ROTATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FRI AND SAT UNSETTLED. PREFRONTAL REGIME ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...ML LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES SUPPORTS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE AND AN ANTECEDENT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SHEAR IS LIMITED...AND FROPA MAY OCCUR TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PEAK HEATING TO ASSIST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO CHANCE IN THE EAST...SCHC WEST...ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS FRI/SAT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO FOR HIGHS...BUT WITH MINS WELL ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 70. NEAR CLIMO FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TERMINAL-WIDE THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A MORE STRATIFORM AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARDS FLO. DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF T.D. BERYL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HIGHLY LIKELY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT FLO...07Z AT CRE/MYR...08Z AT LBT...AND 11Z AT ILM. T.D BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF T.D. BERYL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THE MYR TERMINAL BY 08-09Z AND EVENTUALLY THE ILM TERMINAL BY 12Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF TD BERYL AND BECOME NORTHEAST AT FLO/LBT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE AS BERYL PASSES EXPECTED WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THEN BECOME NORTH BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BY AFTERNOON AT ILM. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VFR WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND AND SEA FORECASTS THIS EVENING PENDING THE RELEASE OF NHC`S OFFICIAL 11 PM FORECAST POINTS AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR TD BERYL. THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING BAND OF BERYL`S CORE BY SEVERAL HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 6 PM FOLLOWS... TD BERYL IS INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA BUT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL ACROSS GEORGETOWN SC AT 7 AM WEDNESDAY... NEAR MYRTLE BEACH BY 10 AM...AND ACROSS CAPE FEAR BY 1 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE NEAR-TERM FOR TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS BERYL APPROACHES...REACHING 15-20 KT LATE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 5-7 FT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD AS BERYL MAKES ITS WAY UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WED. THE CENTER OF BERYL SHOULD REACH THE CAPE FEAR COAST BY EARLY AFTN WED. AT THAT POINT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST NORTHEAST SIDE MAINLY OVER OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE...BUT MAINLY OUT TOWARD FRYING PAN AND OFF SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE RUNNING UP TO 5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS WED MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING OFF SHORE AND REMAINING GUSTY. EXPECT W-NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED. WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED AS WELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME FRI THROUGH SAT AFTN CREATES INCREASING S/SW WINDS WHICH FORCE BUILDING WIND WAVES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FRIDAY...INCREASE AND VEER...BECOMING SW AT 15-20 KTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAT AFTN. THIS HELPS DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-4 FT EARLY FRIDAY...TO 3-5 FT EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SPECTRUM BEING DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. FROPA OCCURS SATURDAY AFTN...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WHICH PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE...AND WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL BACK TO 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514606 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 1010 PM UPDATE...TSTMS HAVE ALL BUT MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE LAST TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PENOBSCOT BAY. HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO REMOVE THUNDER IN ALL AREAS. HAVE ALSO CHANGED POPS TO COINCIDE WITH CURRENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT...AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING AS FRONT APPROACHES. FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. --- UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 315...AS THREAT TRANSITIONS TO HEAVY RAFL ACROSS NH. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY EXTREME RAFL AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL MON NGT...WHILE HIGH RAFL RATES ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM RISES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION DEPARTS EWD...COLD FNT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE FROM TAINTING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO NEAR 80 WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO DECENT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COAST. EXPECT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA IN THE EVE. IF ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WOULD BE PSBL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF IN LIGHT OF APCHG STG/SVR TSTMS ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY. CONTD OVERALL ACTIVE AND WET PTTN WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THU...TRIGGERING A FEW SCT SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK (ALBIET A TOUGH WEEK) AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND OVER NEW ENG. ON SAT...LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYS...BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LCLY HVY. UPR LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING YET A FEW MORE SCT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR S ON MON. HWVR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1010 PM UPDATE...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING WESTERN SECTIONS IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVER. SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN ONSHORE FLOW E OF THE WHITE MTNS. COLD FNT ENTERING CWA WILL ACTUALLY HELP MIX THIS AIRMASS OUT SOME AND IMPROVE CONDS TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR IN TSRA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FNT WED SHOULD FURTHER IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDS N OF THE WHITE MTNS. CHC FOR AFTN TSMTS ALONG THE COAST WED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR WITH LCL LIFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... 1010 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE. SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS THE INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PRESSURE RISES WEAKEN. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...SCAS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND PSBLY GLWS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLC CSTLN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... |
| #514605 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... MODIFIED TNGT PD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT PCPN/TEMPS/DEWPTS AND SKY. LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS FORMING ALONG CDFNT MIGHT GRAZE NRN SECTION OF FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD WITH PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF AND WILL VACATE BY LATE TNGT. FOG MAY REPLACE RAIN GIVEN COOL SFC AMS AND HIGH BNDRY LYR MSTR CONTENT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWFA AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING...WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR VSBYS AT DCA...BWI AND MTN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. AT CHO...MRB AND IAD...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...GROUND FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CHO AND MRB HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO 3SM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI- SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADZY WAS TRIMMED AND NOW RMNS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR SRN MARINE ZONES. AS SFC TROF APRCHS THESE ZONES...WINDS MAY SUBSIDE AS WIND DIRECTION VEERS SLGTLY. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SOUTHERLY CHANNELING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TROUGH THE EVENING. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533- 534-537-541>543. && $$ |
| #514604 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:23 PM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1012 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...TROPICAL RAINS COMING TO AN END... .UPDATE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL HAS REALLY ACCELERATED HERE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA. THE LAST OF THE RAINBANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ARE WINDING DOWN AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS MAY POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. WILL LIKELY ADD AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. .AVIATION... DIFFICULT CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP AS TROPICAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. RECENT RAINS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL INDICATE IFR VISIBILITIES AT GNV WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOONER. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS STILL IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LEAVING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO A LOW RISK FOR TOMORROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 94 67 94 / 50 40 40 50 SSI 71 86 73 87 / 70 30 30 30 JAX 70 91 69 91 / 60 40 40 40 SGJ 71 88 72 87 / 60 40 40 40 GNV 69 92 69 92 / 60 30 30 30 OCF 71 92 70 92 / 50 30 30 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514603 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514602 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... NUMEROUS UPDATES THIS EVNG WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR THE LINE OF ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LYR AND INTERACTION WITH THE MARITIME AIRMASS ALONG THE SHORES. A LINE OF WET WX IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE RGN AND OFFSHORE...BUT THE CHCS OF THUNDER WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER THREAT OF CONCERN IS FOR FOG ALONG THE S AND SE SHORELINES. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE OUTCOME PER WET WX AND GUSTY OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE LINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEDNESDAY... SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE A SECOND FRONT WITH SHORT WAVE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PULSE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MAINLY W-SW THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AIR DOES NOT WORK IN UNTIL SECOND TROUGH WORKS THROUGH. WILL STILL BE MILD BUT NOT AS WARM AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU/FRI * SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT * DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH FEATURES CLOSED LOW OVER MIDWEST HEADING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. THIS MAINTAINS TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT. WED NIGHT... LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO S NH/N MA. THU AND FRI... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO FRI EVENING...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY END OF DAY. SAT AND SUN... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH REGION. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM 12Z GFS BRINGS TRIPLE POINT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MEANING WE SHOULD SPEND SOME TIME IN WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH S/SE FLOW MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH UPPER LOW HANGING BACK TO OUR W CLEARING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW. MAY SEE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF COLD POOL ALOFT. MON AND TUE... LARGER DIFFERENCES APPEAR ON MODELS SO TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS INTO REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. IFR/LIFR CIGS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST AND EXPECT THIS TO COVER MUCH OF RI AND EASTERN MA TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE E AND WILL BRING ABOUT A 2HR PERIOD OF TSRA TO MOST TERMINALS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE A FEW HOURS TOO FAST. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WED SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N-S DURING THE MORNING. MAY SEE IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST ALL DAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO VEER TO S. MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND ON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WED. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS MAY FALL LOWER IN TSRA EARLY TONIGHT BUT TIMING LOOKS GOOD BASED UPON RADAR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...NOTED REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED BUOYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THAT THE SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FEET LOWER THAN FORECAST. HAVE BACKED OFF...BUT STILL COULD SEE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ON THE S-SW WINDS. DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR BLOCK ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WILL SEE TSTMS DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY TSTMS. WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES. MAY SEE SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL ON OUTER S COASTAL WATERS WHICH MAY PROMPT SCA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SAT WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WHICH MAY REACH SCA. SYSTEM DEPARTS SUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ |
| #514599 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:02 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 954 PM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .UPDATE... No major changes were made to the evening forecast. Storms in the vicinity of Pensacola have begun to diminish, or evolve further west of our local area. To the north, storms across southern TN and northern AL/GA will continue through the night. There is a chance that some of these storms will reach our northern Georgia, and Alabama counties late tonight. However, any storms that do reach our borders will have weakened significantly through the night. Broad troughing will remain in place over the southeastern part of the country for the next several days. At the surface, high pressure will build in behind Beryl (currently situated along the GA/SC border). Afternoon seabreeze circulations and weak impulses in the broad east coast trough will provide the support each afternoon for scattered thunderstorms. However, probabilities will remain low (in the 20-30% range). By the end of the week, rain chances will increase as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s are expected each day. && MARINE... Cautionary (borderline SCA) level winds will continue for the next couple of hours across our eastern forecast waters. This is an area where the pressure difference is great between Beryl to the north, and high pressure in the Gulf. As Beryl moves away the gradient will weaken and winds will subside. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period, with only slight enhancements near shore each afternoon within the afternoon seabreeze. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to hold at all terminals into the early morning hours, when chances of patchy fog will increase. A few sites may see MVFR conditions for a few hours beginning around 10Z. After the fog diminishes by 14Z, VFR conditions will prevail. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and have mentioned VCTS at TLH and VLD to account for this potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 93 70 92 71 / 20 30 20 30 20 Panama City 78 89 76 87 74 / 20 20 10 20 20 Dothan 71 94 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 68 95 71 94 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Valdosta 70 93 68 93 70 / 30 30 20 40 20 Cross City 76 90 70 91 70 / 30 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 79 88 75 86 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514595 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING IN THE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND A LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS OF 5-6KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE JUST OVER 0.9 INCHES...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH SITES THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EARLY AFTERNOON AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR EXTENDING OVER 400 MILES UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOY 51000 NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BUOY 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AREAS OF STABLE CLOUDS EXTEND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT DURING THE DAY...THEY WILL FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST STATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREA...THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL BUILD EASTWARD... LEAVING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK...AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THE 12Z/18Z GFS RUNS SHOW AN AREA OF MORE SHOWERY CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND WE SEE AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING/STABILIZING DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US BACK TO MORE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISH...THE SMALL CRAFT WILL BE EXTENDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS. FOR THESE WINDIER AREAS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WE HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY. COMBINED SEAS AT BUOYS EXPOSED TO THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND AS WINDS WEAKEN AND THE UPSTREAM FETCH SHRINKS. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY. && .AVIATION... AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ISOL SEVERE TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE BELOW 8 KFT LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MID-WEEK...SO EXPECT AIRMET TANGO TO CONTINUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS AS LOW CLD AND -SHRA CARRIED BY THE TRADES AFFECT SOME WINDWARD TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL- MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS. && $$ |
| #514596 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 949 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NE OVER THE REGION. WANING INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING HAS ENDED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BY 2 OR 3 Z NYC METRO. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING ACROSS NYC METRO. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST QUITE YET. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INITIALLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEY WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WAVES JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... A BASIN AVERAGE OF 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514594 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 850 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TARGET AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WHERE NEEDED THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... CONCERNING THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE AS NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TYPE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 30/09Z AND 30/13Z. KBPT MAY BRIEFLY HAVE SOME IFR TYPE VISIBILITIES ALSO DURING THAT TIME. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF AND ALOFT FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ACTED TO GIVE US SOME DRIER DEW POINTS THAN PROGGED SO WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE TNITE. THESE SAME DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF OLD MEXICO. LONG TERM...WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. STILL TO EARLY ON INCLUDE STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. WE WILL REVISIT THE RAIN ISSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY JUST DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BUILDING IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY DIURNAL. GOOD AGREEMENT WAS NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER THE CANADIAN WHICH PRODUCES A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY, AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROF WAY TOO MUCH. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 71 92 73 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 40 KBPT 72 92 74 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 30 KAEX 70 95 70 90 70 / 0 10 10 30 40 KLFT 72 93 71 89 71 / 0 10 10 20 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514590 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 925 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LINE OF SVR STORMS THAT MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL PA WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED THE WRN HALF OF CWA. SOME SVR WARNING WERE ISSUED/VERIFIED. SEE LSR PRODUCT FOR DETAILS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWERING DEW POINTS BEHIND IT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. SLOW CLEARING SO UNLIKELY REACH 90 ON WED. SUED WARMER NAM NUMBER 5 PM MAX`S. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ONLY A BIT AND LIGHT N WIND BECOMES SW AHD OF THE MORE GENUINE COLD FRONT WITH A POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWER E PA AND NW NJ. NAM TEMPS. 09Z/29 SREF POPS IN THE MORNING THEN BLENDED 09Z SREF WITH 12Z/29 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF BEYRL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OFF THE COAST AND ALONG THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS COULD SEE THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS AND SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SURF. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY SHORE AREAS MAY BE GRAZED BY SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THU. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA BUILDS OVER AND THEN PAST THE REGION. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. POPS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER THE TERMINALS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT CROSSES AREA AND BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT N WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV BECOMES A GENERAL S-SW WIND IN THE AFTN. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG GOING OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS. WEDNESDAY...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY N THRU NE THEN SHIFT S SSE IN THE AFTN UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. MAX HI TODAY AS OF 3 PM IN THE MID 90S IN THE KILG-KTTN CORRIDOR. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455 AND ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA |
| #514587 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:20 PM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 915 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE CALM. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE... ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)... IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1918...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 78 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 94 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514586 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 PM 29.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 913 PM AST TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF AGUADA...MOCA...AND AGUADILLA. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WELL. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 30/01Z IN SHRA. LCL MVFR ARND TKPK DUE TO CIGS MAY ALSO BE EXPECTED TIL 30/06Z. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST AREA TIL APPROX 30/17Z. NMRS TSRA WILL THEN FORM OVR NW AND N CENTRAL PR WITH MVFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS AND SOME TOPS ABV 40 KFT. LLVL WNDS TO CONT SE 5 TO 15 KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE MAY 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY THE DIURNAL CONVECTION... BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS IT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF SAN SEBASTIAN...QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY AND ARECIBO WHERE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED AT LEAST TWO INCHES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2.1 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGESTS SOME CONCENTRATION OF DUST MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 29/22Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH SE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 88 78 88 / 10 20 10 50 STT 78 88 78 89 / 10 10 30 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #514581 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:57 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 839 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWFA AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING...WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR VSBYS AT DCA...BWI AND MTN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. AT CHO...MRB AND IAD...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...GROUND FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CHO AND MRB HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO 3SM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI- SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY CHANNELING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TROUGH THE EVENING. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. && $$ UPDATE...LISTEMAA/LARSEN-SUFFEREN |
| #514578 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:45 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 839 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWFA AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING...WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR VSBYS AT DCA...BWI AND MTN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. AT CHO...MRB AND IAD...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...GROUND FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CHO AND MRB HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO 3SM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI- SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY CHANNELING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. && $$ UPDATE...LISTEMAA/LARSEN-SUFFEREN |
| #514576 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:38 PM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 834 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LOW STRATO-CU FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCOURED OUT NICELY ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. T.D. BERYL REMAINS OVER SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC TO THE NE OF BERYL. THIS LINE HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO NE NC RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN/SE VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS SE SECTIONS...AT LEAST GETTING SCATTERED POPS 30-40% INTO SE VA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS AS NECESSARY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHC POPS (~30%) ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. OTW...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WHICH HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN/NW ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (50-60%) FOR NW AREAS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS THE FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM BERYL BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION (AS BERYL MOVES UP THE SC COAST)...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL MOVING NE AND HUGGING THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE HEADING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC (CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF BERYL). HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80%) ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR NW ZONES)...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS (20-40%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WED EVENING AS BERYL HEADS OUT TO SEA BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WED REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE NC. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN IN A RAIN DEFICIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS SO THE GROUND CAN EASILY HANDLE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY WX. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPLY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRNT PUSHING INTO AND ACRS THE AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG. GOING WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT AT THIS TIME) FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FM FRI EVENG INTO ERLY SAT MORNG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHEST CHC POPS LINGER IN THE ENE CNTIES SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HI PRES WILL THEN BE CNTRD OVR THE GULF CST STATES AND FL FM SUN THRU TUE...WHILE WEAK TROFS...IN THE NRN STREAM SWING THRU THE REGION SUN NGT...AND AGAIN MON NGT THRU TUE. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE MORE CLDS FM SUN NGT THRU TUE...BUT KEEP THE FCST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S SAT AND SUN...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S MON AND TUE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PRE FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE NW BORDERS OF THE FA AS OF 00Z WED. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...WINGS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THE LINE WILL IMPACT KRIC AND KSBY INITIALLY...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS MAKING ITS FORECAST ENE/NE TURN AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT FOR KECG AND POSSIBLY KORF. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TD WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VIS AND LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND BERYL PUSHES OUT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRI. && .MARINE... ADDED A SHORT TERM SCA FOR THE ENTIRE BAY AS THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS 16-18 KT. FURTHER MONITORING OF THIS SURGE WILL BE NEEDED TO SEE IF IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH PAST 04Z WED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT...DUE TO S WNDS INCREASING THE SEAS TO 5 FT. OTHRWISE...GOING CLSR TO THE NAM12 WNDS THRU 12Z WED...THEN WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF NAM12 AND MOSGUIDE WNDS FM 15Z WED THRU THU WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF BERYL. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA FOR THE SRN TWO CSTL WTRS...ESPLY FOR INCREASING SEAS...FM BERYL WED NGT INTO ERLY THU. SW WNDS ON WED WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE ENE BY LATE WED...THEN BECOME NE THEN NNW FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI. THEN...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W LATE FRI...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU MIDDAY SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS |
| #514575 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:38 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 837 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...RAIN NOW SUBSIDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF BERYL NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DIMINISHING AFTER A VIGOROUS AFTERNOON OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FOR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM OR TWO. WILL KEEP INHERITED 20-30 POPS SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS LIKELY TO BE OVER. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES AS MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...RED TIDE...OR WHEN OTHER LOCAL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU GET CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC OR ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN WARM AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...HELPING IN KEEPING MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S...EVEN WARMER NEAR THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO RAIN COVERAGE AND TEMPS...BUT IN GENERAL THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. && .AVIATION...RAIN BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TAF SITES. RAIN BANDS MAY SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SO WILL CARRY VCSH FROM AROUND 8Z TO AROUND 14Z. VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR FMY AND RSW. && .MARINE... TD BERYL IS LIFTING OFF WELL TO THE NE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FL...LEAVING GENERALLY W/SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND TURN WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. DATA FROM BUOY 42036 STILL SHOWS WINDS NEAR SCA LEVELS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10PM AND KEEP THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNDER EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 75 91 / 20 30 20 30 FMY 75 92 75 92 / 20 30 20 30 GIF 73 92 72 92 / 20 40 20 40 SRQ 75 88 73 90 / 20 30 20 30 BKV 71 91 69 92 / 30 40 20 40 SPG 78 88 78 89 / 20 30 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO- PINELLAS-SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ |
| #514572 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:23 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 810 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT...STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY TOWARD FLAGLER COUNTY MAY GRAZE THE NORTHERN AREAS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE AND FLAGLER BEACH. AN OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LATE EVENING STORMS NORTHERN VOLUSIA BUT SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED STORMS WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND INDIANTOWN WILL TRACK OFF THE MAINLAND AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S LOOKS GOOD GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS. UPDATED THE SURFACE WIND GRIDS TO SHOW WINDS DECREASING TO THE 5 TO 8 MPH RANGE TOWARD SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY...BERYL OR ASSOCIATED REMNANT LOW FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST...AND LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STAY THERE WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME ON THU BUT INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE RETARDED BY WEAK/DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH SOME CELLS EMERGING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED/THU NIGHT TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES AREAWIDE. HIGHS THU AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER 90S PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FRI-MON...(EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION)...THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT INTO THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE HALTED BY A NEW STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DVLP FROM THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID WEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS H100-H70 CYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WRLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THESE WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE THE DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC AIRMASS OVER THE GOMEX WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PREVENTING THE BULK OF AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM WELL PAST THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TOTAL PRECIP COVERAGE AOB 50PCT FRI/SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 30PCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PLACES THE DEEP SOUTH AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT STRATUS. INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO THIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND SLOWLY THIN SOUTH TO NORTH ONCE THE EVENING STORMS DISSIPATE. && .MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS AND 5 FOOT SEAS. SCRIPPS BUOYS 113 AND 114 OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 3 FOOT SEAS. WILL LIMIT SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FEET WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT BUOY REPORTS. WILL KEEP THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE FOR WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION WED...OFFSHORE WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT AOB 10-15 KT WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON... STORMS AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE MAINLAND LATE DAY INTO WED EVENING. WED NIGHT-SUN...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SW WINDS 10-12 KTS WED NIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SW THU MORNING BEFORE BACKING SE/ESE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS AGAIN BECOME SW/W THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. THIS TREND OF LIGHT WINDS VEERING IN THE EVENING AND BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON (SEA BREEZE REGIME) CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514568 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 815 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. LOOKS LIKE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS SLIGHTLY...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK TSTMS AS WELL. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/CQD |
| #514567 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:17 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 716 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SOME PATCHY SC MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRIEFLY REDUCING THE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BUT AT THIS TIME MY OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON ANY LONG TERM MVFR CEILINGS IS PRETTY LOW. SO WILL MENTION ONLY SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR SOME BKN DECKS WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL GENERALLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PGF WILL TIGHTEN UP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT. HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH DEEP SOUTH SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHILE BREEZY INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105 TO 108 RANGE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AND LIGHTER WINDS MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND SEVEN FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 77 96 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 80 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514561 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 15Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z...SO HAVE S TO SE WINDS AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)... MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER... PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514560 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 756 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE TONIGHT. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WE/RE NOT DONE WITH BERYL JUST YET...AS SHE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL BE FOUND APPROACHING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING...THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS BERYL CONTINUES HER TREK OFF TO THE NE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING NOT TOO FAR TO THE NW AND STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WHEN YOU COMBINE THIS WITH PWATS THAT ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY WE/RE LOOKING AT SO VERY MUCH NEEDED RAINS. WHILE SE GA WILL GET UP TO ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SC WHERE THE BEST CONFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN SC...AROUND 90 PERCENT NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER IN SE GA...TRENDING DOWN TO 60 PERCENT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE WET FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE...WHILE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN SC TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT 10 PM TO 4 AM. BY LATE TONIGHT POPS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AND BY 6 AM THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL HAVE ENDED FOR SE GA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC. IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE HELICITY WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT ALONG WITH VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETERS APPROACHING 0.2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGESTS THAT GIVEN THAT BERYL WILL TRAVEL OVER THE AREA...THERE DOES REMAIN THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES UNTIL LATE. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TONIGHT TO NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST 2500 FEET ARE AS HIGH AS 35-45 KT. WHILE NOT ALL OF THAT WILL MIX DOWN TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY KEEP WATCH FOR A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON...COASTAL COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND MAYBE DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE 11AM NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR TD BERYL...ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL HELP TO DRAW BERYL TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF BERYL AND AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES IN...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. IN FACT WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AND 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF BERYL...AND WE CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AMPLE INSOLATION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR GENERALLY IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE PRETTY VIGOROUS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORGANIZING TO THE WEST. THE STRONG UPPER TROF AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHERLY UPPER JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING FOR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MIXED...BUT GENERALLY FAVORS BRINGING THE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COMPLEXITY OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT IS AT A VERY HIGH LEVEL WITH TD BERYL WOBBLING RIGHT THROUGH THE REGION. SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS...PERIODIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL BOUTS WILL LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT UNTIL BERYL PASSES BY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR A GOOD BET A KSAV EARLY THIS EVENING AND KCHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. ON WED...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER MID MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND NW SURFACE WINDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL BE IMPACTED YET AGAIN BY BERYL...AS SHE WILL RETURN ON THE REBOUND...PASSING NE OVER THE NEARBY PORTION OF SC AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. SHE/LL REACH NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CLOSER CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND BERYL WILL GENERATE SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT...THEIR INFREQUENCY SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN GET BY WITH A STRONGLY WORDED SCA/S FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-9 FT...TRENDING HIGHER AS YOU NAVIGATE FURTHER FROM SHORE. IN ADDITION...THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS...MARINERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED ABOUT NAVIGATING WITH EXTREME CARE IF THEY NEED TO BE ON THE COASTAL WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TD BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED JUST INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING AT THIS TIME AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE STEADILY AWAY THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL IMPROVE. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME QUITE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT SCA/S ARE NOT LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SE GA COUNTIES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR SC THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OF HEAVY PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND TD BERYL FROM THE SW AND SEEMS TO BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WORKING ON PWATS THAT ARE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS IN PARTS OF SC. 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND TRAINING OCCURS. THAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IF IT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330. && $$ |
| #514559 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 739 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERE CELLS ACROSS S NH. SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z THERE. ALSO MONITORING CLOSELY FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING AND MIGRATING CELLS THAT MAY MOVE INTO W MA. PLEASE MONITOR OUR WEBSITE /WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/ FOR LATEST UPDATES AND WARNINGS. NOTING A SHARP TEMP SPREAD FROM E MA/S CENTRAL AND SE NH VS. THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SEA BREEZE CONTINUES AT 21Z. FOG BANK ALSO HUGGING THE COAST FROM NEAR BOSTON NORTHWARD. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S-SW AND TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A BIT. TIMING IS IN QUESTION THOUGH. MAIN ATTENTION IS THE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NY STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE S-SW WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEDNESDAY... SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE A SECOND FRONT WITH SHORT WAVE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PULSE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MAINLY W-SW THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AIR DOES NOT WORK IN UNTIL SECOND TROUGH WORKS THROUGH. WILL STILL BE MILD BUT NOT AS WARM AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU/FRI * SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT * DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH FEATURES CLOSED LOW OVER MIDWEST HEADING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. THIS MAINTAINS TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT. WED NIGHT... LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO S NH/N MA. THU AND FRI... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO FRI EVENING...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY END OF DAY. SAT AND SUN... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH REGION. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM 12Z GFS BRINGS TRIPLE POINT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MEANING WE SHOULD SPEND SOME TIME IN WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH S/SE FLOW MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH UPPER LOW HANGING BACK TO OUR W CLEARING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW. MAY SEE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF COLD POOL ALOFT. MON AND TUE... LARGER DIFFERENCES APPEAR ON MODELS SO TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS INTO REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. IFR/LIFR CIGS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND FROM COAST AND EXPECT THIS TO COVER MUCH OF RI AND EASTERN MA TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE E AND WILL BRING ABOUT A 2HR PERIOD OF TSRA TO MOST TERMINALS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF ONSET OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE A FEW HOURS TOO FAST. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WED SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N-S DURING THE MORNING. MAY SEE IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST ALL DAY. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO VEER TO S. MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING OF TSRA LATE TONIGHT AND ON IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WED. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS MAY FALL LOWER IN TSRA EARLY TONIGHT BUT TIMING LOOKS GOOD BASED UPON RADAR. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...NOTED REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED BUOYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THAT THE SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FEET LOWER THAN FORECAST. HAVE BACKED OFF...BUT STILL COULD SEE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ON THE S-SW WINDS. DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR BLOCK ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WILL SEE TSTMS DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY TSTMS. WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES. MAY SEE SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL ON OUTER S COASTAL WATERS WHICH MAY PROMPT SCA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SAT WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WHICH MAY REACH SCA. SYSTEM DEPARTS SUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD |
| #514558 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION [30.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. /13 && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THETA-E RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN 500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C. THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN AL/FL BORDER...WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MS. AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM INSOLATION. WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS DIABATIC HEATING WILL DRIVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AND MOISTURE RIDGE BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. /01 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE FRONT EASES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOW THE BULK OF ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AVERAGE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BEFORE QUICKLY WARMING UP AGAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH THE LACK OF ANY PRECIPITATION. /01 && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY TO ROUGH TONIGHT...SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO EDGE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. /21 && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAILY HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...DEEP MIXED LAYER EACH AFTERNOON WILL OFFER GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT...HOWEVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 71 93 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 PENSACOLA 75 94 75 90 / 30 10 20 10 DESTIN 76 90 76 88 / 20 10 20 10 EVERGREEN 68 96 70 93 / 30 20 30 20 WAYNESBORO 67 94 68 92 / 30 20 30 20 CAMDEN 68 96 69 92 / 30 20 30 30 CRESTVIEW 69 95 71 95 / 30 20 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514557 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 740 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TD BERYL FEATURED VERY FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NO CHANGES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE CENTER CROSSES CAPE FEAR EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND THEREFORE WILL NOT AFFECT LAND. THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z/18Z RUNS OF THE GFS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF BERYL. THE 18Z NAM WAS LARGELY IGNORED AS IT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND DOES SOME INEXPLICABLE THINGS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALMOST CLEARED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MASS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION SHORTLY...AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE LARGEST PROBLEM BERYL WILL THROW AT US...AND OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS STORM-TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ISOLATED AREAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RECEIVE MUCH MORE...POTENTIALLY 6-8 INCHES...WITH FLOODING DEVELOPING IN THESE REGIONS. IT`S JUST NOT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH BERYL...THERE`S ALSO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TO DEAL WITH. A JET STREAK ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS TROUGH AT 300-500 MB WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SINCE WE`RE AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WIND MAXIMUM IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LIFT COUPLING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT FORCED BY BERYL`S SURFACE CIRCULATION...MAKING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL A VERY GOOD BET. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF BERYL. WITH OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW PUSHING 80 DEGREES THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ROTATION IN CONVECTIVE CELLS. SPC OUTLOOKS SHOW "5 PERCENT" FOR TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 69-74 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...THE EFFECTS OF BERYL WILL BASICALLY BE THE SAME. STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN EFFECT TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A BULLS-EYE OF PCP TO THE NORTH OF LOW CENTER AS IT RIDES UP THE COAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRING UP THROUGH COASTAL SC EARLY WED MORNING AND UP INTO NC THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE RAINFALL REACH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND AS MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UP THROUGH OUR LOCAL CWA. THE CENTER SHOULD BE JUST OVER CAPE FEAR EARLY AFTN WED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LIFT BERYL OFF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THEREFORE RAP AROUND DRIER AIR BY LATE DAY WED IN DEEP NW WIND FLOW...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD OF BERYL THROUGH WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP TO 2.4 INCHES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON NORTH HALF OF BERYL. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WILL SEE 0 TO 1KM HELICITY VALUES UP TO 300 JUST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH THIS LOW LEVEL VEERING CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TORNADO...BUT OVERALL MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND RAINY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WED. EXPECT GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WED MORNING UP TO 20 MPH SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW BY LATE AFTN REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS INLAND WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NE TO THE N-NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND PCP TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 BUT MAY SHOOT UP LATE AFTN INLAND AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN ON THE BACK END OF BERYL. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES BY WED EVENING AND LESS THAN AN INCH BY THURS MORNING. NOT COUNTING ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHWR WITH JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL FROM BERYL. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF PCP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THURS AFTN BUT INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL HAVE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON THURS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90 ON THURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH ROTATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FRI AND SAT UNSETTLED. PREFRONTAL REGIME ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...ML LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES SUPPORTS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE AND AN ANTECEDENT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SHEAR IS LIMITED...AND FROPA MAY OCCUR TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PEAK HEATING TO ASSIST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO CHANCE IN THE EAST...SCHC WEST...ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS FRI/SAT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO FOR HIGHS...BUT WITH MINS WELL ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 70. NEAR CLIMO FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TERMINAL-WIDE THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR A MORE STRATIFORM AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARDS FLO. DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF T.D. BERYL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HIGHLY LIKELY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT FLO...07Z AT CRE/MYR ...08Z AT LBT...AND 11Z AT ILM. T.D BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF T.D. BERYL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THE MYR TERMINAL BY 08-09Z AND EVENTUALLY THE ILM TERMINAL BY 12Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF TD BERYL AND BECOME NORTHEAST AT FLO/LBT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE AS BERYL PASSES EXPECTED WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THEN BECOME NORTH BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BY AFTERNOON AT ILM. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VFR WILL BECOME LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...TD BERYL IS INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA BUT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL ACROSS GEORGETOWN SC AT 7 AM WEDNESDAY... NEAR MYRTLE BEACH BY 10 AM...AND ACROSS CAPE FEAR BY 1 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE NEAR-TERM FOR TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS BERYL APPROACHES...REACHING 15-20 KT LATE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 5-7 FT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD AS BERYL MAKES ITS WAY UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WED. THE CENTER OF BERYL SHOULD REACH THE CAPE FEAR COAST BY EARLY AFTN WED. AT THAT POINT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST NORTHEAST SIDE MAINLY OVER OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE...BUT MAINLY OUT TOWARD FRYING PAN AND OFF SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE RUNNING UP TO 5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS WED MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING OFF SHORE AND REMAINING GUSTY. EXPECT W-NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED. WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED AS WELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME FRI THROUGH SAT AFTN CREATES INCREASING S/SW WINDS WHICH FORCE BUILDING WIND WAVES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FRIDAY...INCREASE AND VEER...BECOMING SW AT 15-20 KTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAT AFTN. THIS HELPS DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-4 FT EARLY FRIDAY...TO 3-5 FT EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SPECTRUM BEING DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. FROPA OCCURS SATURDAY AFTN...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WHICH PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE...AND WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL BACK TO 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514556 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 735 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INCLUDING NYC...FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM E PA TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS LINE IS PROGGED TO ENTER ORANGE COUNTY WITHIN A HALF HOUR AND THEN TOWARDS NYC BY AROUND 8 PM. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS LINE WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED 60+ MPH GUSTS. THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE IN ANY AREAS OF THE LINE EXHIBITING A BOWING STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF NYC AND WESTERN CONN...ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. BULK SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO 30-40KT BY LATE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BY 2 OR 3 Z NYC METRO. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING ACROSS NYC METRO. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST QUITE YET. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT INITIALLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEY WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH COASTAL JET ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN WATERS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO EXPECTING WAVES MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514555 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 736 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT CARRYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE: STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE, RIDING ALONG AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER IS NOT REALLY WEAKENING THESE STORMS. THUS, BEEFED UP QPF AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE, JUST SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALLER STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY AS WELL, BUT THESE ARE HAVING A BIT MORE TROUBLE HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST BECAUSE OF A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ALOFT FURTHER NORTH. THE WHOLE AREA WILL SEE A DECENT RAINFALL TONIGHT BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP TOMORROW. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS HOLDING DAMP AND CHILLY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IS PULLING VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARD OUR REGION. THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LOW AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN MAINE CLOSER TO THE SOURCE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE OVER THE COLDER AIR. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR SOME AREAS EVEN IN THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH BUT COULD ABOUT TO MORE THAN AN INCH WITHIN THE PATHS OF ANY STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS ON TRACK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION IS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING THUS LIMITING THE OVERNIGHT COOLING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MAINE AND PUSH IT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT COASTAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THURSDAY. NORTHERN MAINE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RAIN...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLING MID LEVELS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD ON TO MENTION OF THUNDER. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST STATED...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY. HOWEVER AN OVERALL UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUED AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR THE STORMS MOVING INTO BANGOR THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF CAR AND HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ALL SITES. PRECIP MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SO ISSUED ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM. SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: NO SIG WX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN, FOG AND SHOWERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/BLOOMER |
| #514549 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24 HRS ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM TEMPO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID MRNG WED. WEAK TO MODERATE SE LLJ XPCTD TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS DVLPNG. FEW TO SCT COVERAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH OCCASIONAL BKN SKIES AT MVFR LEVELS. MORE PRONOUNCED CU DECK POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED...BUT VFR STILL XPCTD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI /SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES AT KLRD DUE TO STRONGEST PART OF LLJ BEING OVERHEAD/. MODERATE SE WINDS ALL TERMINALS WED ESPECIALLY DURING AFTN AFTER SEABREEZE PASSAGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 92 75 90 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 VICTORIA 73 94 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 76 106 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 ALICE 73 98 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 ROCKPORT 78 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 73 103 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 KINGSVILLE 74 96 73 94 76 / 10 10 0 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 78 91 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514548 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE && .AVIATION... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. CIGS WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AT CLL AND UTS BUT WILL KEEP THEM MVFR FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS IN OVERNIGHT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE. 38 && DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION/MARINE...38 [top] 000 FXUS64 KLUB 292329 AAA AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 629 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BUT STILL WITHIN THE VFR RANGE. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SURFACE DRY-LINE IN PROCESS OF MIXING TO OR JUST EAST OF OUR EASTERN BORDER. A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS SOMEHOW DEVELOPING IN BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES...APPEARS TO SUPPORT A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING THOUGH BETTER IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. LACK OF NOTABLE FORCING WILL LIMIT BOTH THE CHANCES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING AND ALSO ORGANIZATION. TONIGHT SHOULD TURN QUIET AND MILD AFTER A VERY WARM DAY...SIDING WITH 5-10 DEGREES WARMING MANY AREAS OVER LAST NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALSO EXPECTED TO START TO DEEPEN A BIT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN LOW-END BREEZY CONDITIONS SOME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW HEATING AGAIN CLOSE TO CENTURY MARK MANY AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN PROBABLY OVER 105 FOR PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DEEPLY MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY TRY TO CONVECT INTO A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST WITH APPROACHING WEAK FRONT...BUT AIRMASS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE TOO HOT IN MID LEVELS FOR THUNDER MOST OF THE AREA. RMCQUEEN LONG TERM... AN UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY WITH A CUTOFF LOW DIGGING DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORMER LOW WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. BEST FORCING AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY TIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. AFTER THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES...WEST TEXAS WILL BE LOCATED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING TO QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS IS GENERALLY A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...AFTER A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN AS A 1018 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT THE KIBOSH ON STORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH WITH BACKING STEERING FLOW...THE BULK OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM MAY STAY TO OUR NORTH. OF NOTE...THE 12Z NAM DID HAVE A QPF SIGNAL MOVING ACROSS THE FA FROM NE TO SW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...APPARENTLY TIED TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH. THIS SCENARIO SEEM UNLIKELY AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO ADVERTISE THIS...THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLAIN IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION. THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. A PERIOD OF WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN OSCILLATION DRYLINE IN THE AREA...THOUGH THERE ARE QUESTION MARKS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GENERATE ANY LATE AFTN/EVNG DRYLINE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS THE CAP WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THAT. CURRENTLY...THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY /HIGH-BASED/ STORMS. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED POPS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL USHER IN A BRIEF BOUT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A QUICK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UPWARD...THOUGH IF THE LATEST PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE CORRECT...THEY MAY STILL BE TOO COOL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 56 95 56 77 51 / 0 10 20 10 10 TULIA 57 98 58 79 53 / 10 10 20 10 10 PLAINVIEW 60 99 59 80 54 / 0 10 20 10 10 LEVELLAND 59 100 60 82 55 / 0 10 10 10 10 LUBBOCK 63 101 62 83 55 / 0 10 10 10 10 DENVER CITY 61 99 62 84 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 BROWNFIELD 62 100 62 85 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 68 104 65 83 57 / 20 10 20 10 10 SPUR 69 103 65 85 56 / 10 10 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 71 105 65 87 58 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ |
| #514545 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 725 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT DE/ERN MD AND EXTREME SRN NJ. THE GREATEST THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FFA CONTINUES. ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA PROBABLY NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE BOTH IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALSO THE BUCKS/LEHIGH/BERKS BORDERING REGION AND PT NS OF MONROE AND CARBON HAMMERED THIS PAST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BY HEAVY TSTMS. FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. EXCESSIVE HEAT: EXPIRED. PLS SEE WARNINGS AND TSTMS FOR MORE DETAILS AND SWO`S FM SPC AND SPE`S FROM NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT: CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SVR/EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS EVENING E PA/NW NJ TO MAINLY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SE OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMW`S DE BAY. SREF POPS TO END THE RAIN FM NW TO SE. MAINLY NAM WARMER TEMPS/DEWS WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. SLOW CLEARING SO UNLIKELY REACH 90 ON WED. SUED WARMER NAM NUMBER 5 PM MAX`S. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ONLY A BIT AND LIGHT N WIND BECOMES SW AHD OF THE MORE GENUINE COLD FRONT WITH A POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWER E PA AND NW NJ. NAM TEMPS. 09Z/29 SREF POPS IN THE MORNING THEN BLENDED 09Z SREF WITH 12Z/29 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF BEYRL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OFF THE COAST AND ALONG THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS COULD SEE THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS AND SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SURF. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY SHORE AREAS MAY BE GRAZED BY SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THU. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA BUILDS OVER AND THEN PAST THE REGION. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. POPS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AND SW GUSTS 20-25 KTS THRU 22Z TRANSITIONS TO BANDS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING---DEVELOPING ENE AS PER TAFS. GRADU WEAK WSHIFT DURING THE NIGHT FM SSW TO NNW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT N WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV BECOMES A GENERAL S-SW WIND IN THE AFTN. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS AROUND 230 PM PER REALITY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. IF SEAS DONT COME UP TO 5 FT AT 44009 THEN THE SCA PROBABLY DISCARDS ARD 04Z. WEDNESDAY...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY N THRU NE THEN SHIFT S SSE IN THE AFTN UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. MAX HI TODAY AS OF 3 PM IN THE MID 90S IN THE KILG-KTTN CORRIDOR. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071. NJ...NONE. DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA |
| #514542 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:29 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 720 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TD BERYL OVER SE GA. BERYL WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST POPS SLIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. LOOKS LIKE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS SLIGHTLY...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK TSTMS AS WELL. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/70 DEG. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING AND THINK THAT OVERALL WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AS TD BERYL SLOWLY MOVES UP THE SE COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD PAMLICO SOUND TO SCA FOR FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT WED AND WED NIGHT. TD BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND TRACKING ALONG THE NC COAST WED AND WED EVENING. AT THIS TIME HAVE SEAS PEAKING AT 8-10FT WED...AND COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514541 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNING THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR THIS TAF FORECAST PACKAGE AS NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TYPE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 30/09Z AND 30/13Z. KBPT MAY BRIEFLY HAVE SOME IFR TYPE VISIBILITIES ALSO DURING THAT TIME. RUA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF AND ALOFT FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ACTED TO GIVE US SOME DRIER DEW POINTS THAN PROGGED SO WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE TNITE. THESE SAME DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF OLD MEXICO. LONG TERM...WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. STILL TO EARLY ON INCLUDE STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. WE WILL REVISIT THE RAIN ISSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY JUST DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BUILDING IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WITH SHOWER ACITIVITY MAINLY DIURNAL. GOOD AGREEMENT WAS NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER THE CANADIAN WHICH PRODUCES A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY, AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROF WAY TOO MUCH. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 71 92 73 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 40 KBPT 71 92 74 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 30 KAEX 67 95 70 90 70 / 0 10 10 30 40 KLFT 68 93 71 89 71 / 0 10 10 20 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514529 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:47 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 635 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 315...AS THREAT TRANSITIONS TO HEAVY RAFL ACROSS NH. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY EXTREME RAFL AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL MON NGT...WHILE HIGH RAFL RATES ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL STREAM RISES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION DEPARTS EWD...COLD FNT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE FROM TAINTING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO NEAR 80 WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO DECENT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COAST. EXPECT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA IN THE EVE. IF ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WOULD BE PSBL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF IN LIGHT OF APCHG STG/SVR TSTMS ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY. CONTD OVERALL ACTIVE AND WET PTTN WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THU...TRIGGERING A FEW SCT SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK (ALBIET A TOUGH WEEK) AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND OVER NEW ENG. ON SAT...LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYS...BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LCLY HVY. UPR LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING YET A FEW MORE SCT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR S ON MON. HWVR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN ONSHORE FLOW E OF THE WHITE MTNS. COLD FNT ENTERING CWA WILL ACTUALLY HELP MIX THIS AIRMASS OUT SOME AND IMPROVE CONDS TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR IN TSRA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FNT WED SHOULD FURTHER IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDS N OF THE WHITE MTNS. CHC FOR AFTN TSMTS ALONG THE COAST WED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR WITH LCL LIFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS THE INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PRESSURE RISES WEAKEN. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...SCAS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND PSBLY GLWS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLC CSTLN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #514527 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 639 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INCLUDING NYC...FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM E PA TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS LINE IS PROGGED TO ENTER ORANGE COUNTY WITHIN A HALF HOUR AND THEN TOWARDS NYC BY AROUND 8 PM. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS LINE WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED 60+ MPH GUSTS. THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE IN ANY AREAS OF THE LINE EXHIBITING A BOWING STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...ANY ISOLATED DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF NYC AND WESTERN CONN...ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. BULK SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO 30-40KT BY LATE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NYC METRO IS 00-01Z. KSWF WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO SOONER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 01-05Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST QUITE YET. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND COULD VARY THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION NEARS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN BECOME VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEY WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS RIGHT AROUND 00Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS RIGHT AROUND 00Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 01-03Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH COASTAL JET ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN WATERS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO EXPECTING WAVES MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514524 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 620 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TD BERYL FEATURED VERY FEW CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NO CHANGES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE CENTER CROSSES CAPE FEAR EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND THEREFORE WILL NOT AFFECT LAND. THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z/18Z RUNS OF THE GFS ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF BERYL. THE 18Z NAM WAS LARGELY IGNORED AS IT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AND DOES SOME INEXPLICABLE THINGS WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALMOST CLEARED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MASS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION SHORTLY...AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. POPS REMAIN AT 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE LARGEST PROBLEM BERYL WILL THROW AT US...AND OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS STORM-TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. ISOLATED AREAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RECEIVE MUCH MORE...POTENTIALLY 6-8 INCHES...WITH FLOODING DEVELOPING IN THESE REGIONS. IT`S JUST NOT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH BERYL...THERE`S ALSO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST TO DEAL WITH. A JET STREAK ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS TROUGH AT 300-500 MB WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SINCE WE`RE AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WIND MAXIMUM IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LIFT COUPLING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT FORCED BY BERYL`S SURFACE CIRCULATION...MAKING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL A VERY GOOD BET. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF BERYL. WITH OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW PUSHING 80 DEGREES THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ROTATION IN CONVECTIVE CELLS. SPC OUTLOOKS SHOW "5 PERCENT" FOR TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 69-74 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...THE EFFECTS OF BERYL WILL BASICALLY BE THE SAME. STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN EFFECT TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A BULLSEYE OF PCP TO THE NORTH OF LOW CENTER AS IT RIDES UP THE COAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRING UP THROUGH COASTAL SC EARLY WED MORNING AND UP INTO NC THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE RAINFALL REACH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND AS MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UP THROUGH OUR LOCAL CWA. THE CENTER SHOULD BE JUST OVER CAPE FEAR EARLY AFTN WED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LIFT BERYL OFF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THEREFORE RAP AROUND DRIER AIR BY LATE DAY WED IN DEEP NW WIND FLOW...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD OF BERYL THROUGH WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP TO 2.4 INCHES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON NORTH HALF OF BERYL. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WILL SEE 0 TO 1KM HELICITY VALUES UP TO 300 JUST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH THIS LOW LEVEL VEERING CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TORNADO...BUT OVERALL MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND RAINY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WED. EXPECT GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WED MORNING UP TO 20 MPH SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW BY LATE AFTN REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS INLAND WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NE TO THE N-NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND PCP TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 BUT MAY SHOOT UP LATE AFTN INLAND AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN ON THE BACK END OF BERYL. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES BY WED EVENING AND LESS THAN AN INCH BY THURS MORNING. NOT COUNTING ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHWR WITH JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL FROM BERYL. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF PCP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THURS AFTN BUT INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL HAVE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON THURS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90 ON THURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH ROTATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FRI AND SAT UNSETTLED. PREFRONTAL REGIME ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...ML LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES SUPPORTS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE AND AN ANTECEDENT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SHEAR IS LIMITED...AND FROPA MAY OCCUR TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PEAK HEATING TO ASSIST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO CHANCE IN THE EAST...SCHC WEST...ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS FRI/SAT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO FOR HIGHS...BUT WITH MINS WELL ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 70. NEAR CLIMO FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THINGS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR T.D. BERYL LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...BERYL APPROACHES. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE MYRTLES WILL GET IT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY ILM TWO TO THREE HOURS LATER. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY OVER THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INLAND FIRST...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BERYL STARTS TO PULL AWAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...TD BERYL IS INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA BUT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL ACROSS GEORGETOWN SC AT 7 AM WEDNESDAY... NEAR MYRTLE BEACH BY 10 AM...AND ACROSS CAPE FEAR BY 1 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE NEAR-TERM FOR TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS BERYL APPROACHES...REACHING 15-20 KT LATE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT SHOULD BUILD TOWARD 5-7 FT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD AS BERYL MAKES ITS WAY UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WED. THE CENTER OF BERYL SHOULD REACH THE CAPE FEAR COAST BY EARLY AFTN WED. AT THAT POINT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST NORTHEAST SIDE MAINLY OVER OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE...BUT MAINLY OUT TOWARD FRYING PAN AND OFF SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE RUNNING UP TO 5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS WED MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING OFF SHORE AND REMAINING GUSTY. EXPECT W-NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED. WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED AS WELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME FRI THROUGH SAT AFTN CREATES INCREASING S/SW WINDS WHICH FORCE BUILDING WIND WAVES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FRIDAY...INCREASE AND VEER...BECOMING SW AT 15-20 KTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAT AFTN. THIS HELPS DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-4 FT EARLY FRIDAY...TO 3-5 FT EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SPECTRUM BEING DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. FROPA OCCURS SATURDAY AFTN...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WHICH PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE...AND WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL BACK TO 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514519 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:27 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 623 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE BALTIMORE...WASHINGTON DC AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM. THE EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...WESTERN VA AND EASTERN WV CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. AS OF 615PM...THE PRIMARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM WASHINGTON/FREDERICK COUNTIES IN MD DOWN TO AUGUSTA COUNTY VA. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A GENERAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVE. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE SAME LOCATION. THE RISK APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVE AND OVNGT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE EVE CONVECTION MAY STILL IMPACT ERN ZONES THRU THE OVNGT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR CONDITIONS AT MRB AT OR AROUND 3PM AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM AND 8PM...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR THE BWI...MTN...AND DCA AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI-SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL OCCUR WHEN A LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN MOVES EWD TOWARD WATERS DURING THE MID EVE. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HVY RAIN. BOATERS SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMW/S. SLY FLOW HAS INCREASED THIS AFTN...WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING ON THE WATERS. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THRU ERY EVE. SLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROLONG SCA-LVL GUSTS A FEW HRS LONGER. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK/KS |
| #514516 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 559 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT DE/ERN MD AND EXTREME SRN NJ. THE GREATEST THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FFA CONTINUES. ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA PROBABLY NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE BOTH IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALSO THE BUCKS/LEHIGH/BERKS BORDERING REGION AND PT NS OF MONROE AND CARBON HAMMERED THIS PAST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BY HEAVY TSTMS. FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. EXCESSIVE HEAT: CONTINUES TO THRU 7P. HI HAS REACHED 94-95 AS OF 2PM IN PHL/ILG/TTN. PLS SEE WARNINGS AND TSTMS FOR MORE DETAILS AND SWO`S FM SPC AND SPE`S FROM NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT: CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SVR/EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS EVENING E PA/NW NJ TO MAINLY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SE OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMW`S DE BAY. SREF POPS TO END THE RAIN FM NW TO SE. MAINLY NAM WARMER TEMPS/DEWS WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. SLOW CLEARING SO UNLIKELY REACH 90 ON WED. SUED WARMER NAM NUMBER 5 PM MAX`S. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ONLY A BIT AND LIGHT N WIND BECOMES SW AHD OF THE MORE GENUINE COLD FRONT WITH A POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWER E PA AND NW NJ. NAM TEMPS. 09Z/29 SREF POPS IN THE MORNING THEN BLENDED 09Z SREF WITH 12Z/29 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF BEYRL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OFF THE COAST AND ALONG THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS COULD SEE THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS AND SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SURF. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY SHORE AREAS MAY BE GRAZED BY SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THU. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA BUILDS OVER AND THEN PAST THE REGION. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. POPS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AND SW GUSTS 20-25 KTS THRU 22Z TRANSITIONS TO BANDS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING---DEVELOPING ENE AS PER TAFS. GRADU WEAK WSHIFT DURING THE NIGHT FM SSW TO NNW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT N WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV BECOMES A GENERAL S-SW WIND IN THE AFTN. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS AROUND 230 PM PER REALITY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. IF SEAS DONT COME UP TO 5 FT AT 44009 THEN THE SCA PROBABLY DISCARDS ARD 04Z. WEDNESDAY...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY N THRU NE THEN SHIFT S SSE IN THE AFTN UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. MAX HI TODAY AS OF 3 PM IN THE MID 90S IN THE KILG-KTTN CORRIDOR. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA |
| #514511 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 545 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERE CELLS ACROSS S NH. SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z THERE. ALSO MONITORING CLOSELY FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING AND MIGRATING CELLS THAT MAY MOVE INTO W MA. PLEASE MONITOR OUR WEBSITE /WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/ FOR LATEST UPDATES AND WARNINGS. NOTING A SHARP TEMP SPREAD FROM E MA/S CENTRAL AND SE NH VS. THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS SEA BREEZE CONTINUES AT 21Z. FOG BANK ALSO HUGGING THE COAST FROM NEAR BOSTON NORTHWARD. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO S-SW AND TEMPS WILL JUMP UP A BIT. TIMING IS IN QUESTION THOUGH. MAIN ATTENTION IS THE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NY STATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONT AND ON THE S-SW WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH APPEARS THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEDNESDAY... SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING WITH LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE A SECOND FRONT WITH SHORT WAVE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PULSE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MODELS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MAINLY W-SW THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AIR DOES NOT WORK IN UNTIL SECOND TROUGH WORKS THROUGH. WILL STILL BE MILD BUT NOT AS WARM AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU/FRI * SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT * DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH FEATURES CLOSED LOW OVER MIDWEST HEADING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. THIS MAINTAINS TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT. WED NIGHT... LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO S NH/N MA. THU AND FRI... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO FRI EVENING...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY END OF DAY. SAT AND SUN... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH REGION. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM 12Z GFS BRINGS TRIPLE POINT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MEANING WE SHOULD SPEND SOME TIME IN WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH S/SE FLOW MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH UPPER LOW HANGING BACK TO OUR W CLEARING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW. MAY SEE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF COLD POOL ALOFT. MON AND TUE... LARGER DIFFERENCES APPEAR ON MODELS SO TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS INTO REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL NH WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGER. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S AND CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS DIFFICULT /LOW CONFIDENCE/...BUT SHOULD START TO CLEAR BY 23Z-00Z. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO ANY PRECIP ARRIVAL ALONG E COAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTER 03Z. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N-S DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FOG BANK HAS BEEN HANGING JUST OFF LOGAN SO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TIME THE IMPROVING VSBY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED AT 21Z. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WIND SHIFT TO SE-S. SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z...THEN VSBYS LOWER TO IFR-LIFR. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS... APPEARS TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. COULD SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 05Z. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...NOTED REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED BUOYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THAT THE SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FEET LOWER THAN FORECAST. HAVE BACKED OFF...BUT STILL COULD SEE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ON THE S-SW WINDS. DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR BLOCK ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WILL SEE TSTMS DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY TSTMS. WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES. MAY SEE SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL ON OUTER S COASTAL WATERS WHICH MAY PROMPT SCA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SAT WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WHICH MAY REACH SCA. SYSTEM DEPARTS SUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD |
| #514503 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:26 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 518 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR BETTER PLACEMENT OF HIGH POP. TSTMS RAPIDLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THEY BECOME ELEVATED OVER MARINE LYR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS INTO EXTREME WRN NH...MAINLY LARGE HAIL. WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES...HEAVY RAFL WILL BECOME THE GREATER THREAT IN THE COMING HRS. THIS WILL INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR CNTRL AND NRN NH AND ADJACENT ME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION DEPARTS EWD...COLD FNT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE FROM TAINTING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO NEAR 80 WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO DECENT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COAST. EXPECT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA IN THE EVE. IF ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WOULD BE PSBL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF IN LIGHT OF APCHG STG/SVR TSTMS ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY. CONTD OVERALL ACTIVE AND WET PTTN WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THU...TRIGGERING A FEW SCT SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK (ALBIET A TOUGH WEEK) AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND OVER NEW ENG. ON SAT...LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYS...BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LCLY HVY. UPR LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING YET A FEW MORE SCT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR S ON MON. HWVR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN ONSHORE FLOW E OF THE WHITE MTNS. KLEB AND KHIE WILL HAVE THE CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAFL. COLD FNT ENTERING CWA WILL ACTUALLY HELP MIX THIS AIRMASS OUT SOME AND IMPROVE CONDS TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR IN TSRA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FNT WED SHOULD FURTHER IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDS N OF THE WHITE MTNS. CHC FOR AFTN TSMTS ALONG THE COAST WED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR WITH LCL LIFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS THE INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PRESSURE RISES WEAKEN. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...SCAS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND PSBLY GLWS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLC CSTLN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #514496 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 351 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...TD BERYL IS STILL OVER SERN GA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF ALONG WITH THE NRN AND HIGH PLAINS. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND GRT LAKES. IN THE MID LVLS RIDGE IS OVER THE BAJA AND OLD MEXICO. POTENT PAC NW ENERGY IS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN. OLD WRN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES ACTUALLY BECAME MOSTLY SUNNY AND THIS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/ && .SHORT TERM...TODAY MAY BE ONE OF THE LAST DAYS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN OVERALL QUIET FCST. WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A WEAK NW FLOW REGIME TONIGHT AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1.5" AND WITH AN ACTUAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION WE COULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. WITH NW FLOW EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL 19/20Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THINGS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WE SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL OUR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THU NIGHT. THE ENERGY THAT HAS MOVED IN FROM THE PAC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS THU. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO NE TX. THERE WILL BE A POTENT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WORKING SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BUT IT WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL WE HAVE ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS. AT THIS TIME WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW POTENT STORMS BUT OVERALL THE BULK OF THE SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THAT THE FRONT WILL REALLY START TO LOSE ITS PUNCH EARLY FRI MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EAST THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND START TO SLOW DOWN AND THAT WILL HURT SVR TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE GULF WITH RAIN LIKELY ENDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. /CAB/ .LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE BOTH AGREE THE TROUGH WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH THE AREA RECOVERING QUICKLY. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE THE TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST AND BY SUN NIGHT THE NEXT MID LVL RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BACK OVER THE REGION. FRI NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SRN MS AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE AND A DRY FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY WORKS TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW BY SUN MORNING. IN FACT MDLS ARE ADVERTISING DEWPOINTS RECOVERING AROUND 15 DEGREES FROM SAT MORNING TO SUN MORNING. BY MON MOISTURE WILL BE BACK OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK WRLY TO SWRLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION MON AFTN. RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SO LOOK FOR THE HOT HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. /CAB/ && .MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DO THEIR USUAL THING AND PICK UP A TAD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DELTA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BACK OFF AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL THEN BECOME MORE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI BUT IT WILL REALLY LOSE A LOT OF ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. THAT SAID WE WILL STILL SEE WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH WILL DEPART EVEN FASTER ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO QUICKLY RETURN. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD WAS VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...MAINLY APPARENT OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOBILE AREA...AND HRRR INDICATES THEY COULD BUILD BACK TOWARD KGPT AND KHSA TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 10 PERCENT TODAY...SO HAVE NO PLANS TO COVER IN FORECAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. DID NOT SEE THEM OCCUR THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT LARGE ENOUGH CHANCE OR AREAL COVERAGE TO CARRY IN FORECAST...BUT WILL LIKELY END UP WITH THEM NEAR A SITE OR TWO DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /35/ && DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 92 69 88 / 10 30 20 20 BTR 71 92 72 88 / 10 30 20 20 ASD 71 90 72 87 / 10 20 20 20 MSY 74 91 74 88 / 10 20 10 20 GPT 72 87 73 86 / 10 20 20 10 PQL 68 91 70 89 / 20 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514494 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 446 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...WESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THIS AREA...AND SOME MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SEE THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION STILL REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS AFTN AS HIPRES IS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THRU TNGT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EWD THRU THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH VLY THIS AFTN WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS TNGT. SINCE THE MRNG CAP HAS ALLOWED FOR PLENTY OF HEATING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE AFTN...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SB-CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS CU FIELD MATURES. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE MTS DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE STRONGER CAP ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 HAS DELAYED ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY...SEWD INTO WRN WV AND ERN KY CROSSES THE MTS LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVE. ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SPECIAL IAD RAOB SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES BEING TWO FACTORS THAT HAVE LIMITED THE SVR RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE PARAMETERS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A SVR POTENTIAL THIS EVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A LOWER...BUT EXISTENT RISK...FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS. WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVE. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE SAME LOCATION. THE RISK APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVE AND OVNGT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE EVE CONVECTION MAY STILL IMPACT ERN ZONES THRU THE OVNGT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR CONDITIONS AT MRB AT OR AROUND 3PM AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM AND 8PM...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR THE BWI...MTN...AND DCA AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI-SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL OCCUR WHEN A LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN MOVES EWD TOWARD WATERS DURING THE MID EVE. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HVY RAIN. BOATERS SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMW/S. SLY FLOW HAS INCREASED THIS AFTN...WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING ON THE WATERS. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THRU ERY EVE. SLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROLONG SCA-LVL GUSTS A FEW HRS LONGER. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK/KS |
| #514493 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 442 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE AT NIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 19Z ARE RUNNING NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND PVA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR SHRA/TSRA AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REACHES THE CITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE POSSIBLE SOON FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION HERE. BULK SHEAR IS SHOULD BE AROUND 30KT EARLY THIS EVENING..WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 700-800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. BULK SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO 30-40KT BY LATE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NYC METRO IS 00-01Z. KSWF WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO SOONER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 01-05Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN FORECAST QUITE YET. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND COULD VARY THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION NEARS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN BECOME VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEY WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS RIGHT AROUND 00Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS RIGHT AROUND 00Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 00-01Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. BEST ESTIMATE IS 01-03Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. AND CONSIDERING THAT WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 5 FT...WILL NOT GO WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO EXPECTING WAVES MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514491 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 432 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE TONIGHT. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WE/RE NOT DONE WITH BERYL JUST YET...AS SHE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL BE FOUND APPROACHING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING...THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS BERYL CONTINUES HER TREK OFF TO THE NE...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING NOT TOO FAR TO THE NW AND STEADY HEIGHT FALLS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WHEN YOU COMBINE THIS WITH PWATS THAT ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY WE/RE LOOKING AT SO VERY MUCH NEEDED RAINS. WHILE SE GA WILL GET UP TO ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SC WHERE THE BEST CONFLUENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN SC...AROUND 90 PERCENT NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER IN SE GA...TRENDING DOWN TO 60 PERCENT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE WET FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE...WHILE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN SC TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT 10 PM TO 4 AM. BY LATE TONIGHT POPS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE AND BY 6 AM THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL HAVE ENDED FOR SE GA AND FAR SOUTHERN SC. IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE HELICITY WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT ALONG WITH VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETERS APPROACHING 0.2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGESTS THAT GIVEN THAT BERYL WILL TRAVEL OVER THE AREA...THERE DOES REMAIN THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES UNTIL LATE. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TONIGHT TO NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST 2500 FEET ARE AS HIGH AS 35-45 KT. WHILE NOT ALL OF THAT WILL MIX DOWN TONIGHT...WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY KEEP WATCH FOR A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON...COASTAL COLLETON...BEAUFORT AND MAYBE DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE 11AM NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR TD BERYL...ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL HELP TO DRAW BERYL TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF BERYL AND AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES IN...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. IN FACT WE WILL START THE DAY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AND 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF BERYL...AND WE CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AMPLE INSOLATION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR GENERALLY IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING THROUGH. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE PRETTY VIGOROUS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORGANIZING TO THE WEST. THE STRONG UPPER TROF AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHERLY UPPER JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING FOR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MIXED...BUT GENERALLY FAVORS BRINGING THE FRONT IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER KSAV AS CONVECTION AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER 03Z AND IMPROVING CIGS BACK TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH FOR KCHS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL BE IMPACTED YET AGAIN BY BERYL...AS SHE WILL RETURN ON THE REBOUND...PASSING NE OVER THE NEARBY PORTION OF SC AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. SHE/LL REACH NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER CLOSER CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND BERYL WILL GENERATE SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WHILE WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 35 KT...THEIR INFREQUENCY SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN GET BY WITH A STRONGLY WORDED SCA/S FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-9 FT...TRENDING HIGHER AS YOU NAVIGATE FURTHER FROM SHORE. IN ADDITION...THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS...MARINERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED ABOUT NAVIGATING WITH EXTREME CARE IF THEY NEED TO BE ON THE COASTAL WATERS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TD BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED JUST INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING AT THIS TIME AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BERYL WILL THEN MOVE STEADILY AWAY THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS/SEAS WILL IMPROVE. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME QUITE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT SCA/S ARE NOT LIKELY. && .HYDROLOGY... WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SE GA COUNTIES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR SC THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OF HEAVY PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND TD BERYL FROM THE SW AND SEEMS TO BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WORKING ON PWATS THAT ARE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS IN PARTS OF SC. 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS DEVELOP AND TRAINING OCCURS. THAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IF IT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330. && $$ |
| #514486 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 429 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT CARRYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS HOLDING DAMP AND CHILLY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IS PULLING VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND TOWARD OUR REGION. THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LIFT OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE LOW AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN MAINE CLOSER TO THE SOURCE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE OVER THE COLDER AIR. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER FOR SOME AREAS EVEN IN THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH BUT COULD ABOUT TO MORE THAN AN INCH WITHIN THE PATHS OF ANY STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS ON TRACK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION IS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING THUS LIMITING THE OVERNIGHT COOLING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MAINE AND PUSH IT EAST OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT COASTAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THURSDAY. NORTHERN MAINE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RAIN...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLING MID LEVELS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO HOLD ON TO MENTION OF THUNDER. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST STATED...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY. HOWEVER AN OVERALL UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF CAR AND HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ALL SITES. PRECIP MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: NO SIG WX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN, FOG AND SHOWERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER |
| #514487 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 427 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 315 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WRN PORTIONS OF NH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION DEPARTS EWD...COLD FNT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE FROM TAINTING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO NEAR 80 WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO DECENT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COAST. EXPECT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA IN THE EVE. IF ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WOULD BE PSBL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF IN LIGHT OF APCHG STG/SVR TSTMS ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY. CONTD OVERALL ACTIVE AND WET PTTN WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THU...TRIGGERING A FEW SCT SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK (ALBIET A TOUGH WEEK) AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND OVER NEW ENG. ON SAT...LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYS...BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LCLY HVY. UPR LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING YET A FEW MORE SCT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR S ON MON. HWVR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN ONSHORE FLOW E OF THE WHITE MTNS. KLEB AND KHIE WILL HAVE THE CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAFL. COLD FNT ENTERING CWA WILL ACTUALLY HELP MIX THIS AIRMASS OUT SOME AND IMPROVE CONDS TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR IN TSRA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FNT WED SHOULD FURTHER IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDS N OF THE WHITE MTNS. CHC FOR AFTN TSMTS ALONG THE COAST WED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR WITH LCL LIFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS THE INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PRESSURE RISES WEAKEN. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...SCAS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND PSBLY GLWS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLC CSTLN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #514483 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME WEAKENING IN THE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND A LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT LIHUE TO TO 8KFT AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGE FROM 0.8 INCHES AT LIHUE TO 1.0 INCHES AT HILO...WHICH ARE BOTH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORNING AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING TIME. SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE INVERSION...THIS DRYING MAY BE A SIGN OF A LOWERING INVERSION. 19Z ACARS ASCENT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HONOLULU AND KAHULUI SHOW INVERSION NEAR 5-6KFT. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE...MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURES AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOY 51000 NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BUOY 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. AREAS OF CLOUDS EXTEND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. WHILE THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS...THEY WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST STATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREA...THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL BUILD EASTWARD... LEAVING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK...AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE SHOWERY CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND WE SEE AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING/STABILIZING DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US BACK TO NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISH...THE SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS. FOR THE WINDIER AREAS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ABOVE NORMAL TRADE WIND SWELL THAT HAS BEEN GENERATED BY THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EXPOSED EAST FACING SHORES TODAY...BRINGING SURF ABOVE THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 8 FEET FOR EAST FACING SHORES. COMBINED SEAS AT THE MOKAPU BUOY HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE PAUWELA AND HILO BUOYS HAVE BEEN MORE STEADY. 12Z WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ISOL SEVERE TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE BELOW 8 KFT LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MID-WEEK...SO EXPECT AIRMET TANGO TO CONTINUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS AS LOW CLD AND -SHRA CARRIED BY THE TRADES AFFECT SOME WINDWARD TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST- WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS- && $$ |
| #514482 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THETA-E RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN 500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 DEGREES C. THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN AL/FL BORDER...WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MS. AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM INSOLATION. WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS DIABATIC HEATING WILL DRIVE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AND MOISTURE RIDGE BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. /01 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE FRONT EASES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOW THE BULK OF ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW GIVEN VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AVERAGE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BEFORE QUICKLY WARMING UP AGAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH THE LACK OF ANY PRECIPITATION. /01 && .AVIATION /29.1800Z TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST ISSUANCE/...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES OF 6000-8000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF TERMINAL IMPACT REMAINS LOW...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF VCTS WITHIN THE LOCAL TAF/S AND WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AMENDMENT FOR TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUPS SHOULD TSRA DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. /21 && .MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY TO ROUGH TONIGHT...SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO EDGE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. /21 && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAILY HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...DEEP MIXED LAYER EACH AFTERNOON WILL OFFER GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE POOR AT NIGHT...HOWEVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 71 93 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 PENSACOLA 75 94 75 90 / 30 10 20 10 DESTIN 76 90 76 88 / 20 10 20 10 EVERGREEN 68 96 70 93 / 30 20 30 20 WAYNESBORO 67 94 68 92 / 30 20 30 20 CAMDEN 68 96 69 92 / 30 20 30 30 CRESTVIEW 69 95 71 95 / 30 20 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514480 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 PM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LOW STRATO-CU FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCOURED OUT NICELY ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. T.D. BERYL REMAINS OVER SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC TO THE NE OF BERYL. THIS LINE HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO NE NC RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN/SE VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS SE SECTIONS...AT LEAST GETTING SCATTERED POPS 30-40% INTO SE VA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS AS NECESSARY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHC POPS (~30%) ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. OTW...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WHICH HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN/NW ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (50-60%) FOR NW AREAS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS THE FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM BERYL BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION (AS BERYL MOVES UP THE SC COAST)...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL MOVING NE AND HUGGING THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE HEADING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC (CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF BERYL). HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80%) ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR NW ZONES)...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS (20-40%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WED EVENING AS BERYL HEADS OUT TO SEA BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WED REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE NC. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN IN A RAIN DEFICIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS SO THE GROUND CAN EASILY HANDLE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY WX. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPLY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRNT PUSHING INTO AND ACRS THE AREA FRI NGT THRU SAT MORNG. GOING WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT AT THIS TIME) FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FM FRI EVENG INTO ERLY SAT MORNG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHEST CHC POPS LINGER IN THE ENE CNTIES SAT MORNG...OTHRWISE THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HI PRES WILL THEN BE CNTRD OVR THE GULF CST STATES AND FL FM SUN THRU TUE...WHILE WEAK TROFS...IN THE NRN STREAM SWING THRU THE REGION SUN NGT...AND AGAIN MON NGT THRU TUE. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE MORE CLDS FM SUN NGT THRU TUE...BUT KEEP THE FCST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT MORNG...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S SAT AND SUN...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S MON AND TUE. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAT PRODUCED LOW CEILINGS EARLIER TODAY...AS NOW LIFTED INTO A CU FIELD WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ERN NC. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FOR ECG. AT THIS TIME...NOT SOLD ON IT MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO VA...BUT IT COULD IMPACT ORF. THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER AND BERYL BEGINS TO MOVE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SHOULD BEGIN TO RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND 6Z AND FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS...WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS EVEN DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR ORF AND ECG WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF BERYL. BY 16Z...THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT CLEARS RIC AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE...BUT THE MORE EASTERN SITES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND BERYL TO KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN BERYL PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST...TURNING THE FLOW NW AND DRYING THINGS OUT. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA THRU LATE TNGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT...DUE TO S WNDS INCREASING THE SEAS TO 5 FT. OTHRWISE...GOING CLSR TO THE NAM12 WNDS THRU 12Z WED...THEN WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF NAM12 AND MOSGUIDE WNDS FM 15Z WED THRU THU WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF BERYL. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA FOR THE SRN TWO CSTL WTRS...ESPLY FOR INCREASING SEAS...FM BERYL WED NGT INTO ERLY THU. SW WNDS ON WED WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE ENE BY LATE WED...THEN BECOME NE THEN NNW FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU INTO FRI. THEN...A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W LATE FRI...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU MIDDAY SAT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS |
| #514478 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE GULF AND ALOFT FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A MID LATITUDE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE. && .SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ACTED TO GIVE US SOME DRIER DEW POINTS THAN PROGGED SO WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN GUIDANCE TNITE. THESE SAME DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF OLD MEXICO. && .LONG TERM...WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. STILL TO EARLY ON INCLUDE STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. WE WILL REVISIT THE RAIN ISSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY JUST DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE BUILDING IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WITH SHOWER ACITIVITY MAINLY DIURNAL. GOOD AGREEMENT WAS NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER THE CANADIAN WHICH PRODUCES A CLOSED LOW OVER EAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY, AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROF WAY TOO MUCH. SWEENEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 71 92 73 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 40 KBPT 71 92 74 89 72 / 0 10 10 20 30 KAEX 67 95 70 90 70 / 0 10 10 30 40 KLFT 68 93 71 89 71 / 0 10 10 20 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514476 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 352 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BANDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING BLOCKING OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERSISTENT EASTERN US UPPER THROUGH WHICH THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO CATCH ON TO. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF BERYL. THURSDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING RH AND LIGHT QPF SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY MORNING BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY COULD DRY IF CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH LESS HUMID AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST APPROACH EASTERN NC TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD (WARMEST TUESDAY) BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 300 AM TUE...GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NHC TRACK DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST TRACK FOLLOWING THE 5 PM ADVISORY FROM NHC. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM...WINDS/RAIN/SEAS FROM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE SUCH THAT ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER FLOW BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514475 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 348 PM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The 18 UTC regional surface analysis showed the broad center of Tropical Depression Beryl moving northeast across south central GA. Scattered convection has been occurring across our GA zones, but has been fairly shallow. We expect the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish this evening. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a trough translating eastward over the Great Lakes, which was helping to "capture" Beryl into the mid latitude westerlies and away from our region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) The 500 MB flow will be rather zonal across much of the CONUS, with several short waves translating east through the mean flow. It doesn`t appear that any significant disturbances will affect our region, except that a long wave trough (and accompanying cold front) will approach from the west on Friday. For Wednesday and Thursday our PoP will be in the low- end chance range (20-40% range), which is near climatology. They will be mostly diurnally driven, with afternoon sea breezes and/or a weak trough left in Beryl`s wake providing the main forcing for convection. Weak wind fields should limit storm organization and/or rotation, but as always this time of year, there could be a pulse severe storm or two each afternoon with the strong daytime heating. Temperatures will be a bit above average through Thursday afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 90s inland. .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Tuesday) The next trough is still forecast to affect the area on Friday into Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. The 00z model suite is not in great agreement with respect to the strength of this trough as it approaches the area. Somewhat strong 30-40 knot deep layer shear values for this time of year clip the northwest part of the forecast area late on Friday on the 29/00z GFS. It`s not entirely impossible that we may see a few stronger storms over the northwest parts of the area with this frontal passage, but confidence in any one scenario is currently low with varying model solutions. High pressure is expected to build in behind the front for the second half of the weekend with no mention of PoPs after that front through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions are still prevalent at ABY and VLD. As TD Beryl exits to the northeast should see VFR conditions at all terminals by 03Z. The next main concern will be the chance of fog dropping all terminals to MVFR around 10Z. After fog diminishes by 14Z VFR conditions will prevail with winds north-northeast around 5 kts. && .MARINE... Winds and seas were at caution levels this afternoon, and this may persists into early Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday and Wednesday night, and remain at typically low summertime values for the remainder of the week (except for stronger onshore breezes at the coast in the afternoon and evening hours). && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no current fire weather concerns with abundant low level moisture in place through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 93 70 92 71 / 30 30 20 30 20 Panama City 76 89 76 87 74 / 30 20 10 20 20 Dothan 70 94 71 92 70 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 69 95 71 94 70 / 30 20 10 30 20 Valdosta 69 93 68 93 70 / 40 30 20 40 20 Cross City 71 90 70 91 70 / 40 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 75 88 75 86 74 / 30 30 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514474 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 351 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... CLOUD LINES PRODUCING SEVERAL BOUTS WITH WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COALESCE FROM THE ISLAND CLOUD LINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE REVERSE CLOUD LINES. THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE LOWER KEYS. FROM SATELLITE INTERROGATION THERE IS A WIND SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SPREAD TOWARD KEY WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE STRAITS TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT...AND ZERO INHIBITION WITH THE MOIST AIR TRAPPED BELOW 600 MB EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CUBAN BOUNDARIES MAY MAKE THE CROSSING INTACT...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE UPDATED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR 50 PERCENT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH 30 PERCENT ON THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA AND SOME ADDED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A BETTER LIFTING MECHANISM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RETURNS WITH A MORE SEASONAL ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD LINES PRODUCING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AND SEAS ROUGH IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... THROUGH 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE EPISODES OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOUD LINE ESPECIALLY AT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. && .CLIMATE... KEYS WEATHER DATELINE...1926...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES AND SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...WHICH STANDS 86 YEARS LATER. IN 1952 THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 91 SETTING THE RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...60 YEARS AGO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 78 87 78 86 / 20 50 30 50 MARATHON 78 89 78 88 / 20 50 30 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514473 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT...MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN SHRINKING IN COVERAGE BUT SOME BREAKS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS THERE SO ANTICIPATE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS OCCURS. HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED POPS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLD FAR SOUTH WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY LOW/MID 70S. WEDNESDAY...BERYL OR ASSOCIATED REMNANT LOW FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE IN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 COAST...AND LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL RULE THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STAY THERE WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME ON THU BUT INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE RETARDED BY WEAK/DEEPER OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH SOME CELLS EMERGING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED/THU NIGHT TO CONTINUE MAINLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES AREAWIDE. HIGHS THU AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER 90S PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FRI-MON...(EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION)...THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT INTO THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE HALTED BY A NEW STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DVLP FROM THE BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP AN EXPANSIVE CIRCULATION WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MID WEST/GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS H100-H70 CYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY SAT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WRLY BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. THESE WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE THE DRIER AND LESS ENERGETIC AIRMASS OVER THE GOMEX WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PREVENTING THE BULK OF AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE WRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM WELL PAST THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TOTAL PRECIP COVERAGE AOB 50PCT FRI/SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AOB 30PCT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PLACES THE DEEP SOUTH AND MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...TEMPO REDUCTIONS OCCURRING IN SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING NEAR THE COAST SWD OF KMLB TO JUPITER INLET. AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO THE NORTH DECREASING IN COVERAGE BUT BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST AREAS VFR BY AROUND 30/02Z. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE UP FOR OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT FOR SW WINDS 15-20KT. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT AOB 10-15 KT WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...STORMS AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE MAINLAND LATE DAY INTO WED EVENING. WED NIGHT-SUN...REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SW WINDS 10-12 KTS WED NIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER SW THU MORNING BEFORE BACKING SE/ESE NEAR THE COAST DUE TO EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WINDS AGAIN BECOME SW/W THU EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. THIS TREND OF LIGHT WINDS VEERING IN THE EVENING AND BACKING IN THE AFTERNOON (SEA BREEZE REGIME) CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 71 90 / 40 40 30 40 MCO 72 91 72 92 / 40 40 30 40 MLB 73 88 72 89 / 30 40 30 40 VRB 74 89 71 88 / 30 40 30 40 LEE 73 90 73 92 / 40 40 30 40 SFB 73 92 73 93 / 40 40 30 40 ORL 74 91 74 93 / 40 40 30 40 FPR 73 89 70 89 / 30 40 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514472 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 345 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE AT NIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 19Z ARE RUNNING NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND PVA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR SHRA/TSRA AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSMS REACHES THE CITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE POSSIBLE SOON FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION HERE. BULK SHEAR IS SHOULD BE AROUND 30KT EARLY THIS EVENING..WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 700-800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. BULK SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO 30-40KT BY LATE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VFR INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS WITH KSWF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z. MORE TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF THAT TIME RANGE FURTHER EAST ACROSS KBDR AND KISP AND OVERNIGHT AT KGON FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS WELL BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS EVENING BEFORE PLACING IN MORE TEMPO GROUPS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN AT THE MOMENT FOR LATE TONIGHT REGARDING THIS. MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR MORE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND DRYING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. AND CONSIDERING THAT WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 5 FT...WILL NOT GO WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO EXPECTING WAVES MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514471 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:50 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 243 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES HAVE A MAJOR HOLD ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WILL INTRODUCE A 10 PERCENT MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL AMOUNT TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION...YET GIVEN GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE CAP OVERHEAD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 24 DEGREES C. WITH THIS...EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR 105 OUT WEST ALONG RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW 90S EVEN EXPECTED FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH FULL EYE ON THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW...AS THEY COULD GET INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...ANOTHER REPEAT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. && .LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TAIL END OF TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO TEXAS...WITH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS WEAK... AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST IT WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING MAY HELP TO PUSH IT INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE IT WILL STALL FRIDAY AND WASH OUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD HELP TO BACK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH MARGINAL COOLING OF H85-H7 COLUMN GRADUALLY WEAKENING CAP INLAND...BUT NOT COMPLETELY WEAKENING IT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL HOWEVER ASSIST IN CAP COMPLETELY ERODING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A VICTORIA TO ALICE LINE. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WHERE CAP ERODES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... BUT THIS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT EVENTUALLY MAKES IT BEFORE WASHING OUT. WILL SHOW FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEYOND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE PROGGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER WESTERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THE LOW OPENS AND THE WEAKNESS DRIFTS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS PROGGING POOL OF HIGHER MOISTURE DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY. EVENTUALLY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW THE WEAKNESS TO MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 92 75 90 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 VICTORIA 73 94 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 76 106 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 ALICE 73 98 74 96 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 ROCKPORT 78 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 73 103 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 20 20 KINGSVILLE 74 96 73 94 76 / 10 10 0 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 78 91 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514469 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:41 PM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 338 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW STRATO-CU FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SCOURED OUT NICELY ACROSS CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. T.D. BERYL REMAINS OVER SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. A COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NC TO THE NE OF BERYL. THIS LINE HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO NE NC RECENTLY AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN/SE VIRGINIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS SE SECTIONS...AT LEAST GETTING SCATTERED POPS 30-40% INTO SE VA. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND ADJUST POPS AS NECESSARY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHC POPS (~30%) ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. OTW...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST WHICH HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN/NW ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME HIGH CHC TO LOW END LIKELY POPS (50-60%) FOR NW AREAS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS THE FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM BERYL BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION (AS BERYL MOVES UP THE SC COAST)...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS BERYL MOVING NE AND HUGGING THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE HEADING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (SOME HEAVY) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC (CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF BERYL). HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS (60-80%) ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (SAVE FOR NW ZONES)...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS (20-40%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WED EVENING AS BERYL HEADS OUT TO SEA BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER BY SUNSET. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH WED REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES 1-2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE NC. PROBABLY LOOKING AT LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN IN A RAIN DEFICIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS SO THE GROUND CAN EASILY HANDLE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF DRY WX. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER. PER HPC...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO EURO. HAVE PCPN BEGINNING IN WRN PORTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PCPN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO THE PCPN. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND FOR BETTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO 85 COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 60 TO 65. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAT PRODUCED LOW CEILINGS EARLIER TODAY...AS NOW LIFTED INTO A CU FIELD WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ERN NC. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FOR ECG. AT THIS TIME...NOT SOLD ON IT MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO VA...BUT IT COULD IMPACT ORF. THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER AND BERYL BEGINS TO MOVE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SHOULD BEGIN TO RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND 6Z AND FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS...WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS EVEN DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR ORF AND ECG WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF BERYL. BY 16Z...THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT CLEARS RIC AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE...BUT THE MORE EASTERN SITES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND BERYL TO KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN BERYL PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST...TURNING THE FLOW NW AND DRYING THINGS OUT. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... HI PRES OFFSHR...RESULTING IN SSW WNDS AVGG ABT 15 KT RIGHT NOW. PREVAILING LLVL FLO WL RMN FM THE SSW THROUGH TNGT. WNDS BCM MR VRBL ON WED AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA AND LO PRES PASSES ENE NR THE ERN NC CST. HIGHEST SPDS (TO PSBLY 20-25 KT) INVOF NE NC CSTL WTRS...ELSW SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. A SCND CDNFT CROSSES THE WTRS ERY THU. COMBO LO PRES TRACKING OUT TO SEA AND PD OF LLVL CAA POST CDFNT WL BRING A SURGE IN SPDS FM THE NNW LT WED NGT INTO THU. KEEPING SPDS BLO SCA FOR NOW. WNDS BCM E THEN SSE ON FRI...AND INCRS IN SPD AHD OF NEXT CDFNT APPROACHING LT FRI. SCAS RMNG UP FOR NRN 3 OCN ZONES...THOUGH SEAS XPCD TO BE MARGINAL (AVG ARND 5 FT). PSBL SCAS NEEDED FOR SRN OCN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS OFF ERN NC. HIGHEST SPDS W/ THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN OFFSHR/IN ESE QUADRANT. MONITOR TPC FOR INFO/TRACK OF BERYL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS |
| #514468 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:38 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...TWO BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TD BERYL IS PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AT LEAST THROUGH 12-24 HOURS. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM BERYL NOSES INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME COUPLING WITH THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A SWATH OF STRONG UVVS. THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS TD BERYL MOVES THROUGH. QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF UVVS IMPLIES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR EAST OF AN ELIZABETHTOWN NC TO KINGSTREE SC LINE. IN REGARDS TO THE TORNADO THREAT...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 HOUR WINDOW FOCUSED AROUND 12Z WED MAY EXIST IF THE TRACK OF BERYL REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THIS TRACK THE COASTAL AREAS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK GIVEN HIGH 0-1 KM HELICITY AND SUPPORTIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAVOR THE WARMER GFS MINS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH ADJACENT SSTS AROUND 80. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE CATEGORIES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIR-MASS MOVING IN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...THE EFFECTS OF BERYL WILL BASICALLY BE THE SAME. STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN EFFECT TO BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A BULLSEYE OF PCP TO THE NORTH OF LOW CENTER AS IT RIDES UP THE COAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRING UP THROUGH COASTAL SC EARLY WED MORNING AND UP INTO NC THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE RAINFALL REACH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND AS MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UP THROUGH OUR LOCAL CWA. THE CENTER SHOULD BE JUST OVER CAPE FEAR EARLY AFTN WED. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DO LIFT BERYL OFF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THEREFORE RAP AROUND DRIER AIR BY LATE DAY WED IN DEEP NW WIND FLOW...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD OF BERYL THROUGH WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP AROUND 70 WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP TO 2.4 INCHES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON NORTH HALF OF BERYL. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WED MORNING...WILL SEE 0 TO 1KM HELICITY VALUES UP TO 300 JUST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH THIS LOW LEVEL VEERING CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHC OF A TORNADO...BUT OVERALL MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND RAINY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WED. EXPECT GUSTY S-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WED MORNING UP TO 20 MPH SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW BY LATE AFTN REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS INLAND WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NE TO THE N-NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND PCP TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 80 BUT MAY SHOOT UP LATE AFTN INLAND AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN ON THE BACK END OF BERYL. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...A DEEP NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES BY WED EVENING AND LESS THAN AN INCH BY THURS MORNING. NOT COUNTING ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHWR WITH JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL FROM BERYL. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC OF PCP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THURS AFTN BUT INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL HAVE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN WHEN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON THURS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90 ON THURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH ROTATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FRI AND SAT UNSETTLED. PREFRONTAL REGIME ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...ML LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES SUPPORTS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN PLACE AND AN ANTECEDENT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SHEAR IS LIMITED...AND FROPA MAY OCCUR TOO EARLY IN THE DAY FOR PEAK HEATING TO ASSIST...SO AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO CHANCE IN THE EAST...SCHC WEST...ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND A RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS FRI/SAT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO FOR HIGHS...BUT WITH MINS WELL ABOVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONLY FALLING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 70. NEAR CLIMO FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON/TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THINGS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR T.D. BERYL LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...BERYL APPROACHES. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE MYRTLES WILL GET IT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY ILM TWO TO THREE HOURS LATER. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY OVER THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INLAND FIRST...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BERYL STARTS TO PULL AWAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF TD BERYL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE LONG BAY COAST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE S-SW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INCREASING THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOME MAY BE STRONG LATE...WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH AHEAD AS BERYL MAKES ITS WAY UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY WED. THE CENTER OF BERYL SHOULD REACH THE CAPE FEAR COAST BY EARLY AFTN WED. AT THAT POINT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EAST NORTHEAST SIDE MAINLY OVER OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE...BUT MAINLY OUT TOWARD FRYING PAN AND OFF SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE RUNNING UP TO 5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS WED MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE BERYL MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING OFF SHORE AND REMAINING GUSTY. EXPECT W-NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED. WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY EARLY EVENING ON WED AS WELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...PREFRONTAL REGIME FRI THROUGH SAT AFTN CREATES INCREASING S/SW WINDS WHICH FORCE BUILDING WIND WAVES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FRIDAY...INCREASE AND VEER...BECOMING SW AT 15-20 KTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAT AFTN. THIS HELPS DRIVE SEAS FROM 2-4 FT EARLY FRIDAY...TO 3-5 FT EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SPECTRUM BEING DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. FROPA OCCURS SATURDAY AFTN...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS WHICH PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE...AND WAVE AMPLITUDES FALL BACK TO 2-3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514467 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 324 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION DEPARTS EWD...COLD FNT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT THAT SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE FROM TAINTING WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO NEAR 80 WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD LEAD TO DECENT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COAST. EXPECT AFTN TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FNT BEFORE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA IN THE EVE. IF ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...SOME ISOLD STRONG STORMS WOULD BE PSBL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF IN LIGHT OF APCHG STG/SVR TSTMS ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY. CONTD OVERALL ACTIVE AND WET PTTN WITH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON THU...TRIGGERING A FEW SCT SHOWERS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK (ALBIET A TOUGH WEEK) AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND OVER NEW ENG. ON SAT...LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYS...BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE LCLY HVY. UPR LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING YET A FEW MORE SCT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR S ON MON. HWVR...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN ONSHORE FLOW E OF THE WHITE MTNS. KLEB AND KHIE WILL HAVE THE CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND HEAVY RAFL. COLD FNT ENTERING CWA WILL ACTUALLY HELP MIX THIS AIRMASS OUT SOME AND IMPROVE CONDS TO MVFR WITH SCT IFR IN TSRA. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FNT WED SHOULD FURTHER IMPROVE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDS N OF THE WHITE MTNS. CHC FOR AFTN TSMTS ALONG THE COAST WED. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDS...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR WITH LCL LIFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...QUICKLY SUBSIDING AS THE INFLUENCE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PRESSURE RISES WEAKEN. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...SCAS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND PSBLY GLWS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLC CSTLN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #514466 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 224 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER IN A STRING OF WARM AND DRY MAY DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY TOMORROW. LOW RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING UP NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO RAIN COVERAGE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL PROBABLY END UP ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA. IF WARM MID LEVELS TEMPERATURES IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAN BE OVERCOME...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PER SPC`S DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME POSSIBLE RAIN. THE AREA THEN DRIES OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...MODEL POSITIONING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK OFF TO OUR EAST COULD ALLOW FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR A LOT OF OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE MIDDLE THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. WE SHALL SEE. 42 && .MARINE... A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE S-SW WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCEC OR SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE FOR WED NITE INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY BUT THE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK INSUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL RELAX FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL INLAND AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY EVENING AND WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN REDEVELOP ON SAT MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43 && .CLIMATE... THE MAY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN QUITE WARM AND THE CITY OF GALVESTON IS ON TRACK TO RECORD IT`S WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 2012 IS CURRENTLY 79.8 DEGREES AND THE PREVIOUS WARMEST MAY WAS IN 2003 WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 79.6 DEGREES. COLLEGE STATION IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1949 FOR IT`S TENTH WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 78.0 DEGREES. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ AVIATION... VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE. GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND THE MORE BENIGN MET GUIDANCE. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 93 74 91 69 / 10 10 20 30 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 72 93 75 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 77 88 78 88 76 / 10 10 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514465 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STILL REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS AFTN AS HIPRES IS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THRU TNGT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EWD THRU THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH VLY THIS AFTN WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS TNGT. SINCE THE MRNG CAP HAS ALLOWED FOR PLENTY OF HEATING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE AFTN...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SB-CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE CAP HAS BEEN ERODED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS CU FIELD MATURES. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE MTS DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE STRONGER CAP ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 HAS DELAYED ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY...SEWD INTO WRN WV AND ERN KY CROSSES THE MTS LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVE. ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SPECIAL IAD RAOB SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES BEING TWO FACTORS THAT HAVE LIMITED THE SVR RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE PARAMETERS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A SVR POTENTIAL THIS EVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A LOWER...BUT EXISTENT RISK...FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS. WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVE. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE SAME LOCATION. THE RISK APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVE AND OVNGT. RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE EVE CONVECTION MAY STILL IMPACT ERN ZONES THRU THE OVNGT. ANOTHER MUGGY NGT IS IN STORE WITH OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE CITIES AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL INTERACT THE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL PERSISTENT ON THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN MD...WHERE THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN SRN MD BY THE LATE MRNG...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF FROPA. CAA AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA TMW...SO MAX TEMPS IN MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF CHES BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER ERN MD...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NOTICEABLY COOLER WED NIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS. AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL VA THU NIGHT. WARM HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS FRIDAY AFTER THE WARM FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS NOT YET IN AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...WITH ECMWF ACTUALLY QUICKER THAN THE GFS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMETIME IN THE FRI AFTN-SAT MORNING TIME RANGE. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AND SEVERAL POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY-SAT...THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN-TUE. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR CONDITIONS AT MRB AT OR AROUND 3PM AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM AND 8PM...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR THE BWI...MTN...AND DCA AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE KEPT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS. VFR EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY FRI-SAT. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE SUN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL OCCUR WHEN A LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN MOVES EWD TOWARD WATERS DURING THE MID EVE. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HVY RAIN. BOATERS SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMW/S. SLY FLOW HAS INCREASED THIS AFTN...WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING ON THE WATERS. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THRU ERY EVE. SLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROLONG SCA-LVL GUSTS A FEW HRS LONGER. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER SRN CHES BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI-SAT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK/KS |
| #514464 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 327 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE AT NIGHT. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 19Z ARE RUNNING NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND PVA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR SHRA/TSRA AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSMS REACHES THE CITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE POSSIBLE SOON FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION HERE. BULK SHEAR IS SHOULD BE AROUND 30KT EARLY THIS EVENING..WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 700-800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT OVER US ALONG WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. BULK SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO 30-40KT BY LATE...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING WEDNESDAY...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COULD REACH THE FAR NW ZONES BY SUNSET. CAPE VALUES NOT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...HOWEVER BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT BRINGS US ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BUT WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW-MID LEVEL CAP THAT MIGHT PREVENT CONVECTION...AND THUS IT COULD REMAIN DRY FOR MANY SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...BUT WITHIN THE 80S. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT EXITING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. SOME STORMS IN THE EVENING MAY STILL BE STRONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH A BREEZY NW FLOW AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEPARTS ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER ON TAP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AND WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLYING AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY....A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VFR INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS WITH KSWF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 21Z- 04Z. MORE TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF THAT TIME RANGE FURTHER EAST ACROSS KBDR AND KISP AND OVERNIGHT AT KGON FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS WELL BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS EVENING BEFORE PLACING IN MORE TEMPO GROUPS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN AT THE MOMENT FOR LATE TONIGHT REGARDING THIS. MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR MORE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND DRYING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO HIGH. AND CONSIDERING THAT WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 5 FT...WILL NOT GO WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO EXPECTING WAVES MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT...SO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES FOR A BRIEF MOMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5-6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS |
| #514463 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT, PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON, MONROE, LEHIGH AND BERKS COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FFA CONTINUES. ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA PROBABLY NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE BOTH IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALSO THE BUCKS/LEHIGH/BERKS BORDERING REGION AND PT NS OF MONROE AND CARBON HAMMERED THIS PAST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BY HEAVY TSTMS. FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. EXCESSIVE HEAT: CONTINUES TO THRU 7P. HI HAS REACHED 94-95 AS OF 2PM IN PHL/ILG/TTN. PLS SEE WARNINGS AND TSTMS FOR MORE DETAILS AND SWO`S FM SPC AND SPE`S FROM NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT: CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SVR/EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS EVENING E PA/NW NJ TO MAINLY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SE OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMW`S DE BAY. SREF POPS TO END THE RAIN FM NW TO SE. MAINLY NAM WARMER TEMPS/DEWS WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. SLOW CLEARING SO UNLIKELY REACH 90 ON WED. SUED WARMER NAM NUMBER 5 PM MAX`S. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ONLY A BIT AND LIGHT N WIND BECOMES SW AHD OF THE MORE GENUINE COLD FRONT WITH A POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWER E PA AND NW NJ. NAM TEMPS. 09Z/29 SREF POPS IN THE MORNING THEN BLENDED 09Z SREF WITH 12Z/29 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMNANTS OF BEYRL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OFF THE COAST AND ALONG THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS COULD SEE THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS AND SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SURF. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY SHORE AREAS MAY BE GRAZED BY SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THU. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA BUILDS OVER AND THEN PAST THE REGION. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. POPS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AND SW GUSTS 20-25 KTS THRU 22Z TRANSITIONS TO BANDS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING---DEVELOPING ENE AS PER TAFS. GRADU WEAK WSHIFT DURING THE NIGHT FM SSW TO NNW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT N WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV BECOMES A GENERAL S-SW WIND IN THE AFTN. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS AROUND 230 PM PER REALITY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. IF SEAS DONT COME UP TO 5 FT AT 44009 THEN THE SCA PROBABLY DISCARDS ARD 04Z. WEDNESDAY...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY N THRU NE THEN SHIFT S SSE IN THE AFTN UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. MAX HI TODAY AS OF 3 PM IN THE MID 90S IN THE KILG-KTTN CORRIDOR. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062- 067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA |
| #514462 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND TRACK JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BANDS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST INFLUENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK BERYL WILL TRACK JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC WEDNESDAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS PERSIST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR A BIT INLAND AS BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING AREAS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THERE WILL BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT EROSION OR OVERWASH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 300 AM TUE...GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NHC TRACK DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST TRACK FOLLOWING THE 5 PM ADVISORY FROM NHC. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB |
| #514460 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 218 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT. HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH DEEP SOUTH SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHILE BREEZY INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105 TO 108 RANGE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS AND LIGHTER WINDS MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND SEVEN FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 77 96 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 86 80 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514459 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 315 PM AST TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY THE DIURNAL CONVECTION... BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS IT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF SAN SEBASTIAN...QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY AND ARECIBO WHERE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED AT LEAST TWO INCHES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 2.1 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGESTS SOME CONCENTRATION OF DUST MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 29/22Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH SE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 88 78 88 / 0 20 20 50 STT 78 88 78 89 / 10 10 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #514457 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON, MONROE, LEHIGH AND BERKS COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FFA CONTINUES. ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA PROBABLY NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE BOTH IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALSO THE BUCKS/LEHIGH/BERKS BORDERING REGION AND PTNS OF MONROE AND CARBON HAMMERED THIS PAST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND BY HEAVY TSTMS. FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. EXCESSIVE HEAT: CONTINUES TO THRU 7P. HI HAS REACHED 94-95 AS OF 2PM IN PHL/ILG/TTN. PLS SEE WARNINGS AND TSTMS FOR MORE DETAILS AND SWO`S FM SPC AND SPE`S FROM NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT: CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SVR/EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS EVENING E PA/NW NJ TO MAINLY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SE OF I95 AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMW`S DE BAY. SREF POPS TO END THE RAIN FM NW TO SE. MAINLY NAM WARMER TEMPS/DEWS WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. SLOW CLEARING SO UNLIKELY REACH 90 ON WED. SUED WARMER NAM NUMBER 5 PM MAX`S. DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ONLY A BIT AND LIGHT N WIND BECOMES SW AHD OF THE MORE GENUINE COLD FRONT WITH A POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTIVE SHOWER E PA AND NW NJ. NAM TEMPS. 09Z/29 SREF POPS IN THE MORNING THEN BLENDED 09Z SREF WITH 12Z/29 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE FOR END OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AND SW GUSTS 20-25 KTS THRU 22Z TRANSITIONS TO BANDS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING---DEVELOPING ENE AS PER TAFS. GRADU WEAK WSHIFT DURING THE NIGHT FM SSW TO NNW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT N WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV BECOMES A GENERAL S-SW WIND IN THE AFTN. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... SCA EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS AROUND 230 PM PER REALITY. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. IF SEAS DONT COME UP TO 5 FT AT 44009 THEN THE SCA PROBABLY DISCARDS ARD 04Z. WEDNESDAY...WINDS LIGHT...MAINLY N THRU NE THEN SHIFT S SSE IN THE AFTN UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. MAX HI TODAY AS OF 3 PM IN THE MID 90S IN THE KILG-KTTN CORRIDOR. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062- 067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG |
| #514456 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 242 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE REGION HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED MAX TEMPS IN THAT REGION. THINK TEMPS HAVE PRETTY MUCH REACHED THEIR PEAK SINCE THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN A BIG CHALLENGE TODAY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED CURRENT POPS...BUT THEN CONTINUED UPWARD TREND FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH OUT OF STRONGER SHOWERS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TD BERYL HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS. BEGINNING TO MORE SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. DRIER AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WRAP INTO THE SW SIDE OF THE TD...WHICH MAY BE LIMITING OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WFO JAX HAS JUST DROPPED THERE FLOOD WATCH TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION FOR LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ONGOING BY SUNSET AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL APPROACHES THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SOMETIME AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PERSIST WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINING HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COAST AND THE AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND BERYL...COMBINED WITH BETTER INSOLATION UNDER SCATTERING SKY COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHERN SECTIONS UNDER LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THURSDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPAWNING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY...BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE FRONT COULD CROSS THE COASTLINE NO EARLIER THAN THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO CAP POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY PEAKING AROUND 90 DEGREES...JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THICKER SKY COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER KSAV AS CONVECTION AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER 03Z AND IMPROVING CIGS BACK TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH FOR KCHS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVRF CIGS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS. PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP A TAD TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GA AND SOUTHERN SC WATERS WHERE OBS HAVE SHOWN RECENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST KEPT IN TACK. TONIGHT...VERY CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST AS THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GET. CURRENT NHC/MODEL TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INLAND FROM THE COAST AND KEEPING A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE AS BERYL MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KT. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...15-20 KT LOOKS COMMON WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH 6 FT SEAS REACHING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. WILL INITIALIZE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONCURRENT WITH THE OTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BERYL WILL STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING ADVISORIES SHOULD COME TO AN END NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. RIP CURRENTS...ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND AND SWELL WAVE GENERATED BY BERYL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH RISK FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES WERE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO BERYL. HOWEVER OPTED TO KEEP THE RISK MODERATE FOR NOW PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE. THE NEED FOR A HIGH RISK WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OF HEAVY PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND TD BERYL FROM THE SW AND SEEMS TO BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL MAKE A DECISION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO DROP CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ |
| #514451 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 240 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER...LESS HUMID AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS NEW ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 145 PM UPDATE... MONITORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES CLOSELY. SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 313 FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY/S VT WESTWARD. QUITE THE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT 17Z...FROM 64 DEGREES AT KBOS...KBVY AND KCQX TO 91 DEGREES AT KBDL. DEWPTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS N CT INTO SW MA AS WELL. NOTING A DEWPT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS CHESHIRE/WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTIES AS WELL...AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS WELL AS OBS WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E AND N CENTRAL MA/S CENTRAL NH. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WITH STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AREAS...TEMPS RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST AND TRYING TO TIME WHEN THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HAVE NOTED THAT 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOTH KALY AND KOKX INDICATING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE LIFTING WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO KICK OFF. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY PUSHES THRU THE FCST RGN. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ANTICIPATED THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS /POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING. THERE IS AN UNDERLYING QUESTION OF WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL SUSTAIN /AS LIKELY THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL DECOUPLE AND STABILIZE THRU THE OVRNGT PD/. THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORMS MAINTAINING ANY SEVERITY AS THEY COME CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM LEFT FEELING THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE WITH THE COLD FRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOLER AND LESS HUMID THU/FRI * SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT * DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH FEATURES CLOSED LOW OVER MIDWEST HEADING THROUGH GREAT LAKES. THIS MAINTAINS TROUGHING OVER NORTHEAST AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT. THU AND FRI... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO FRI EVENING...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY END OF DAY. SAT AND SUN... LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH REGION. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT FAR FROM 12Z GFS BRINGS TRIPLE POINT THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MEANING WE SHOULD SPEND SOME TIME IN WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH S/SE FLOW MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH UPPER LOW HANGING BACK TO OUR W CLEARING BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW. MAY SEE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF COLD POOL ALOFT. MON AND TUE... LARGER DIFFERENCES APPEAR ON MODELS SO TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILDS INTO REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL NH WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGER. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S AND CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS DIFFICULT /LOW CONFIDENCE/...BUT SHOULD START TO CLEAR BY 23Z-00Z. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO ANY PRECIP ARRIVAL ALONG E COAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTER 03Z. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. CONTINUE WITH IFR VSBYS IN OCEAN FOG WITH ONSHORE WINDS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE UPON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SE-S. CURRENT THINKING IMPROVES VSBYS BY AROUND 00Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH 04Z THEN MAY LOWER TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS... APPEARS TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. COULD SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 05Z. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... OVERVIEW... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT /REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS/ WILL RESULT IN SWELL ACROSS THE S WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR HAZ SEAS POSTED ACCORDINGLY INTO WED MORN. IT IS DURING THE TUE NGT INTO WED PD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT THAT SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH ANY STORMS...GALES WILL BE PSBL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES. MAY SEE SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL ON OUTER S COASTAL WATERS WHICH MAY PROMPT SCA. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SAT WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WHICH MAY REACH SCA. SYSTEM DEPARTS SUN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVT |
| #514450 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 215 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER...LESS HUMID AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS NEW ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 145 PM UPDATE... MONITORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES CLOSELY. SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 313 FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY/S VT WESTWARD. QUITE THE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT 17Z...FROM 64 DEGREES AT KBOS...KBVY AND KCQX TO 91 DEGREES AT KBDL. DEWPTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS N CT INTO SW MA AS WELL. NOTING A DEWPT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS CHESHIRE/WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTIES AS WELL...AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS WELL AS OBS WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E AND N CENTRAL MA/S CENTRAL NH. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WITH STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AREAS...TEMPS RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST AND TRYING TO TIME WHEN THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HAVE NOTED THAT 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOTH KALY AND KOKX INDICATING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE LIFTING WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO KICK OFF. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY PUSHES THRU THE FCST RGN. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ANTICIPATED THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS /POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING. THERE IS AN UNDERLYING QUESTION OF WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL SUSTAIN /AS LIKELY THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL DECOUPLE AND STABILIZE THRU THE OVRNGT PD/. THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORMS MAINTAINING ANY SEVERITY AS THEY COME CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM LEFT FEELING THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE WITH THE COLD FRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARM/HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WED & A RISK OF TSTMS * COOLER/DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES THU * NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEARS FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60HRS/12Z THU THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITIONS. NEVERTHELESS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME THIS PERIOD WHICH FEATURES AN EVOLVING MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SUPPORTS A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL WE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND APPROACH HERE...INCLUDING INCORPORATING HPC GUID. ON A SIDE NOTE THE GEFS PROJECTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WITH VALUES APPROACHING -2.5. THIS WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST CANADA...FAVORING TEMPERATURES AOB NORMAL HERE IN SNE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... WED... GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LINGERS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AS PWATS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT +2 STD. HOWEVER WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE SURFACE FRONT FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-FIRING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING EXIST. LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS AS THE EC AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST MARGINAL MUCAPES OF AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. THU... SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LWRNC RVR VLY. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BERYL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER FRONT MAY NOT EXIT RI AND SOUTHEAST MA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO A WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR PROBABLY AT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CU BUT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION. THUS DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. FRI... COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER BUT MILD TEMPS AND MUCH LESS HUMID BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MORNING LOWS IN THE MU40S POSSIBLE INLAND. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COOL MORNING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY AFTN. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S LIKELY. SEABREEZES LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN WEAK PGRAD. SAT/SUN/MON... THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. GFS DIFFERS ON MAGNITUDE AND TIMING. SO SOMEWHAT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE HERE. GIVEN THIS AND TIME RANGE HERE WE WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...BUT BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MON AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL NH WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGER. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO S AND CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS DIFFICULT /LOW CONFIDENCE/...BUT SHOULD START TO CLEAR BY 23Z-00Z. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO ANY PRECIP ARRIVAL ALONG E COAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTER 03Z. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. CONTINUE WITH IFR VSBYS IN OCEAN FOG WITH ONSHORE WINDS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE UPON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO SE-S. CURRENT THINKING IMPROVES VSBYS BY AROUND 00Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH 04Z THEN MAY LOWER TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS... APPEARS TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. COULD SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 05Z. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR/VFR AGAIN IN SCT AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SHIFTING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... OVERVIEW... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT /REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS/ WILL RESULT IN SWELL ACROSS THE S WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR HAZ SEAS POSTED ACCORDINGLY INTO WED MORN. IT IS DURING THE TUE NGT INTO WED PD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT THAT SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH ANY STORMS...GALES WILL BE PSBL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED/THU...SCT TSTMS ESP WED. SSW SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY ARRIVE LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. FRI...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LINGER SSW SWELLS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...SHOWERS AND LOW VSBY POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #514449 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...TWO BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TD BERYL IS PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AT LEAST THROUGH 12-24 HOURS. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM BERYL NOSES INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME COUPLING WITH THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A SWATH OF STRONG UVVS. THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS TD BERYL MOVES THROUGH. QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF UVVS IMPLIES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR EAST OF AN ELIZABETHTOWN NC TO KINGSTREE SC LINE. IN REGARDS TO THE TORNADO THREAT...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 HOUR WINDOW FOCUSED AROUND 12Z WED MAY EXIST IF THE TRACK OF BERYL REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THIS TRACK THE COASTAL AREAS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK GIVEN HIGH 0-1 KM HELICITY AND SUPPORTIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAVOR THE WARMER GFS MINS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH ADJACENT SSTS AROUND 80. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE CATEGORIES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIR-MASS MOVING IN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER ARE NOT HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 1800 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THINGS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR T.D. BERYL LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...BERYL APPROACHES. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE MYRTLES WILL GET IT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY ILM TWO TO THREE HOURS LATER. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY OVER THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INLAND FIRST...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BERYL STARTS TO PULL AWAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF TD BERYL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE LONG BAY COAST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE S-SW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INCREASING THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOME MAY BE STRONG LATE...WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514448 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)... MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 73 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 90 76 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 75 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514446 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 209 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 17Z ARE RUNNING NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE HELP OF SOME PVA IN THE MID LEVELS ARE FIRING UP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...AND WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MORE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. THE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB THAT PRECLUDED CONVECTION HERE YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER PRESENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST INCREASE AROUND 30KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSMS SHIFTS EASTWARD...REACHING THE CITY TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY...AND WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SPOTS ACROSS THE CITY AND ESPECIALLY OVER NE NJ REACH HEAT INDEX VALES OF 95. SINCE VALUES FELL SHORT OF THIS THRESHOLD IN THE CITY YESTERDAY...NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S HEAT AS PER LOCAL POLICY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. VFR INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS WITH KSWF HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS 21Z- 04Z. MORE TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF THAT TIME RANGE FURTHER EAST ACROSS KBDR AND KISP AND OVERNIGHT AT KGON FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS WELL BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS EVENING BEFORE PLACING IN MORE TEMPO GROUPS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN AT THE MOMENT FOR LATE TONIGHT REGARDING THIS. MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR MORE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND DRYING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SUN...SHOWERS MOSTLY ENDING BY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514444 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 103 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW H8 WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CU WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER THE RAOB ALSO SHOWS A DECENT CAP AND WARM ALOFT SO CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS TODAY. INITIAL SWRLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SRLY AT THE SRN TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. OVERNIGHT WINDS RELAX AND SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY DEVELOP YET AGAIN...KEEPING JUST MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER REFINE HOW LOW THE VSBY GETS. THEN VFR AGAIN BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SWRLY WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MORNING CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY OVER SE TX AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MARINE LAYER TO 3500 FEET WHICH SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO MIX OUT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO TEMPS AND CLOUD GRIDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE ZONES. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT FOG TO THE AREA TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY. VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW CU OVERHEAD AND POSSIBLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA. APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED PWAT AND MID LEVEL THTE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOIST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AND CORRESPONDING PWAT FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. APPROACH OF FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF SCEC CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. SHARPENING TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER WEST TEXAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 71 90 73 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 KBPT 92 71 90 75 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 KAEX 95 67 95 70 89 / 10 0 10 10 30 KLFT 92 68 93 72 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514443 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...TWO BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TD BERYL IS PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BEGIN ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AT LEAST THROUGH 12-24 HOURS. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM BERYL NOSES INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME COUPLING WITH THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A SWATH OF STRONG UVVS. THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS TD BERYL MOVES THROUGH. QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF UVVS IMPLIES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR EAST OF AN ELIZABETHTOWN NC TO ANDREWS SC LINE. IN REGARDS TO THE TORNADO THREAT...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 HOUR WINDOW FOCUSED AROUND 12Z WED MAY EXIST IF THE TRACK OF BERYL REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THIS TRACK THE COASTAL AREAS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK GIVEN HIGH 0-1 KM HELICITY AND SUPPORTIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAVOR THE WARMER GFS MINS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH ADJACENT SSTS AROUND 80. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE CATEGORIES HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIR-MASS MOVING IN. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER ARE NOT HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 1800 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THINGS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR T.D. BERYL LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...BERYL APPROACHES. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE MYRTLES WILL GET IT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY ILM TWO TO THREE HOURS LATER. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS...AS THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY OVER THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INLAND FIRST...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BERYL STARTS TO PULL AWAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF TD BERYL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE LONG BAY COAST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW TO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE S-SW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INCREASING THE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...SOME MAY BE STRONG LATE...WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 2100 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514442 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 209 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TD BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH A RAINBAND EXITING LAND AREAS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE BAND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD HAVE WEAK ROTATION. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOW TEMPS TNGT. FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH WEAK LIFT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING...AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION... AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST TRACK CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD. BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AT KSSI...CLOSER TO THE EXITING BERYL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD VFR TONIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS BERYL EXITS TO THE NORTH THEN EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS UNDER SCEC WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW RISK WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TS BERYL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY AND THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUR OTHER RIVER SITES. THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 10.7 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE FOR THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS 10.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 12.0 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG IS 11.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 94 67 94 / 40 40 40 50 SSI 71 86 73 87 / 50 30 30 30 JAX 70 91 69 91 / 40 40 40 40 SGJ 71 88 72 87 / 40 40 40 40 GNV 69 92 69 92 / 40 30 30 30 OCF 71 92 70 92 / 40 30 30 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514441 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 29.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM TD BERYL WITH A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 4PM UNLESS ANOTHER TRAINING BAND SETS UP LATER AND THEN MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT. TD BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ALOFT AS A TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE GULF. THE MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT LAYING OUT ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY LATER SUNDAY. SURFACE FOCUS ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THIS ENHANCEMENT...AND WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR RAIN CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST). THE ADDED SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION WOULD ALSO LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR TPA...PIE AND LAL INTO MID-AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAIN BAND FROM BERYL. LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME MORE CONVECTION MOVE IN OFF THE GULF AND HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME. ALSO MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .MARINE... TD BERYL WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS SOUTH FL LEAVING GENERALLY W/SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND TURN WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 89 75 91 / 20 30 20 30 FMY 75 92 75 92 / 20 30 20 30 GIF 73 92 72 92 / 20 40 20 40 SRQ 75 88 73 90 / 20 30 20 30 BKV 71 91 69 92 / 30 40 20 40 SPG 78 88 78 89 / 20 30 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS- SARASOTA. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS- HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ |
| #514440 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 202 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE AS OF 10 AM EDT...STRATO CU HANGING TOUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE SUNSHINE AND OVERALL A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (ESP THE MD EASTERN SHORE)...THERE`S PLENTY OF SUN TO START THE DAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL VA TODAY SO TRIMMED BACK EXPECTED MAX HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. CONVERSELY...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON THE EASTERN SHORE 1-2 DEGREES GIVEN TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 80S LATE THIS MORNING WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES TDY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NE OVR SOUTHERN GA AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTER A PRTLY CLDY AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN HRS (ESPECIALLY OVR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND TROPICAL MSTR SURGING NORTHWARD. TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75"...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW LATE TNGT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WED AFTN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN ISSUE W/ ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TNGT TRANSITIONING TO JUST CHC POPS WED OVR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES (AND STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE) WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED W/ R+ TO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NE NC AS THAT IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGGED. HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CLOUDINESS DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S. QPF REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF BERYL AND TIMING W/ THE COLD FRNT/UPR TROUGH...1-2 INCHES MOST COMMON ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. DRYING CONDITIONS THU...W/ DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER. PER HPC...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO EURO. HAVE PCPN BEGINNING IN WRN PORTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PCPN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO THE PCPN. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND FOR BETTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO 85 COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 60 TO 65. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAT PRODUCED LOW CEILINGS EARLIER TODAY...AS NOW LIFTED INTO A CU FIELD WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD BERYL INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME AND WEAK COASTAL BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ERN NC. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FOR ECG. AT THIS TIME...NOT SOLD ON IT MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO VA...BUT IT COULD IMPACT ORF. THIS BAND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER AND BERYL BEGINS TO MOVE NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SHOULD BEGIN TO RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND 6Z AND FURTHER NORTH BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS...WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS EVEN DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR ORF AND ECG WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF BERYL. BY 16Z...THE WEAKENING SFC FRONT CLEARS RIC AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE...BUT THE MORE EASTERN SITES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND BERYL TO KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN BERYL PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST...TURNING THE FLOW NW AND DRYING THINGS OUT. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... HI PRES OFFSHR...RESULTING IN SSW WNDS AVGG ABT 15 KT RIGHT NOW. PREVAILING LLVL FLO WL RMN FM THE SSW THROUGH TNGT. WNDS BCM MR VRBL ON WED AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA AND LO PRES PASSES ENE NR THE ERN NC CST. HIGHEST SPDS (TO PSBLY 20-25 KT) INVOF NE NC CSTL WTRS...ELSW SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. A SCND CDNFT CROSSES THE WTRS ERY THU. COMBO LO PRES TRACKING OUT TO SEA AND PD OF LLVL CAA POST CDFNT WL BRING A SURGE IN SPDS FM THE NNW LT WED NGT INTO THU. KEEPING SPDS BLO SCA FOR NOW. WNDS BCM E THEN SSE ON FRI...AND INCRS IN SPD AHD OF NEXT CDFNT APPROACHING LT FRI. SCAS RMNG UP FOR NRN 3 OCN ZONES...THOUGH SEAS XPCD TO BE MARGINAL (AVG ARND 5 FT). PSBL SCAS NEEDED FOR SRN OCN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS OFF ERN NC. HIGHEST SPDS W/ THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN OFFSHR/IN ESE QUADRANT. MONITOR TPC FOR INFO/TRACK OF BERYL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #514439 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:08 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 201 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MARINE LYR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THANKS TO MORNING CONVECTION. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE INTERIOR COUPLED WITH MESO HIGH FROM DEPARTING MCS HAS LED TO STRONGLY ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED ON THE SRN PERIPHERY BY TSTM OUTFLOW. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THE WARM FNT SURGING BACK WWD AS A MORE BACKDOOR COLD FNT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AREAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE COOL LOW LVLS...MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LYR STILL CONTAINS LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. A MODIFIED KALB 17Z SOUNDING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPS NEAR KLEB PRODUCES ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ABV 2000 J/KG. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO CT RIVER VALLEY...AND SWRN NH...WHERE ENHANCED WORDING REMAINS. FARTHER E...DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL GREATLY REDUCE TSTM SEVERITY WITH EWD EXTENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS FOR ANY TSTM THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH...AND LOCATION OF TSTMS WILL BE OVER SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAFL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVE. SCA CONDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE UPDATED MARINE FCST IN SECTION BELOW TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILDING WAVES...LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE COME UP AND ARE VERY CHOPPY. BACKDOOR FRONT CONTS TO PRESS WESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ |
| #514437 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 141 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM TUE...MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TO LIKELY IN A SWATH ALONG PAMLICO SOUND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL VARY RAPIDLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE FROM TD BERYL WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THINK WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC BUT HELD OFF ON PREDOMINATE IFR GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING OF THIS IMPROVES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RAIN FROM BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 915 AM TUE...NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FORECAST EXCEPT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE PAMLICO SOUND. PREV DISCUSSION...00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA |
| #514436 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 17Z ARE RUNNING NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE HELP OF SOME PVA IN THE MID LEVELS ARE FIRING UP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...AND WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MORE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. THE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB THAT PRECLUDED CONVECTION HERE YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER PRESENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST INCREASE AROUND 30KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/TSMS SHIFTS EASTWARD...REACHING THE CITY TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY...AND WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SPOTS ACROSS THE CITY AND ESPECIALLY OVER NE NJ REACH HEAT INDEX VALES OF 95. SINCE VALUES FELL SHORT OF THIS THRESHOLD IN THE CITY YESTERDAY...NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S HEAT AS PER LOCAL POLICY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM S-SW. PUSHED THUNDERSTORM TIMING AN HOUR AHEAD FROM LAST FCST. OVERALL...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WESTERN TERMINALS GETTING AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS THIS EVENING AND KSWF LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS STILL HAVE PROB30 SINCE IT IS MORE IN THE MID EVENING UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE AND THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514435 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR FEW/SCT CU AROUND 3500FT-4500FT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT-15KTS WILL PERSIST WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. WINDS RELAX LATE THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO REFLECT ONGOING WARMING TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 73 93 79 92 76 / 0 0 10 10 20 VICTORIA 71 95 76 92 72 / 0 0 10 20 20 LAREDO 76 106 76 101 75 / 0 0 10 10 20 ALICE 72 99 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 20 ROCKPORT 78 91 79 89 77 / 0 0 10 10 20 COTULLA 73 102 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 72 97 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 77 91 79 90 77 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514434 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE. GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND THE MORE BENIGN MET GUIDANCE. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 42 DISCUSSION... PCPN THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE NW DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT..BUT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE LINGERING OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS FEATURE AS WE STILL SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT/ SET TO MIX DOWN TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR NEXT BEST/DECENT CHCS OF PCPN SHOULD BE THURS AS MODELS (NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT) DRAW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PREVIOUS- LY ADVERTISED LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (LFQ) EXPECTED TO HELP PRO- DUCE A LINE OF TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH IT ACROSS SE TX. DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRAS DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DRIER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO KEEP THINGS QUIET DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FORM- ING BY NEXT TUES/WEDS WITH THE SEABREEZE BEING THE FOCUS OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVE POPS. 41 MARINE... THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 NEARSHORE AND 10-15 OFFSHORE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR RED RIVER AND INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SETX LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE FLOW TO WARRANT SCEC AND PROBABLY SCA BY THURSDAY SUNRISE FOR WINDS AND SEAS NEARING 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 72 95 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514433 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 29.May.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4600FT AT KBKS TO NEAR 5500FT AT KBRO. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING BUT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HEAT WILL PERSIST TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING UPPER CONVERGENCE...BUILDING THICKNESS VALUES...AND STRENGTHENING OUR CAPPING INVERSION. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY WITH MOST MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 100MB. TEMPS WERE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW. WITH BUILDING THICKNESSES AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE WILL WARM UP A HALF STEP TODAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW AND INCOMING SEA BREEZE FRONT...SO WHILE SOME OF THE MORE INLAND AREAS MAY MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON LESSENING HUMIDITY A BIT...THE COASTAL REGIONS AND MUCH OF THE REST OF VALLEY WILL BE QUITE HUMID TODAY...WITH PROJECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THE STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FLAT AFTERNOON CU. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACCORDINGLY. CONTINUING A MORE BREEZY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE SPIKE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY SINCE IT IS ONE OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED EPISODES SO FAR THIS SEASON. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL NEED SOME HELP TO MAKE IT DOWN INTO SOUTH TEXAS...BUT THAT HELP WILL EVENTUALLY COME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS AND DEVELOP A STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND HIGH PRESSURE ON THE BACKSIDE WILL PUSH INTO WEST TEXAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY NEAR THE COAST...BREEZY ELSEWHERE...WITH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND ENCOURAGING HIGHER TEMPS FOR THE DAY. A HEAT LOW INLAND WILL ALSO HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND REINFORCE THE HIGHER WINDS. SHOULD AGAIN SEE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE READINGS OUT WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE IN MOST AREAS... WITH 105 TO 108 HEAT INDEX READINGS IN ZAPATA COUNTY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES CLOSER...WHILE WINDS DECREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING AND OFFSETTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT DIFFERENT DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT ON TOP OF THE CWA. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS JUST A BIT COOLER DUE TO AN EAST WIND. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WILL POOL AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SHIFTS EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE OR BREEZY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS GULF HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS OR TSTMS MOVING CLOSER TO THE CWA EACH NIGHT...AND FINALLY ACTUALLY THREATENING TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY ON THE LAGUNA AND NEAR SHORE TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. MORE STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA AND NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE SEVEN FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LAST MOST OF THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON THE LAGUNA WILL INCREASE TO ART LEAST 20 KNOTS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY AS WELL. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY EQUALIZE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CUT OFF WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL ALREADY SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514432 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:35 PM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION...VCTS WAS KEPT AS PREVAILING AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KMIA AND KTMB...HAVE A TEMPO DUE TO A STRONG TSTMS MOVING THROUGH FROM 18-19Z. WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AS TSTMS APPROACHES. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP KEEPING THE WEST COAST FAIRLY DRY TODAY. ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN BY 30/01Z. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. THIS, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WL EXPECT MOST STORMS TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP KEEPING NAPLES AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE MENTION IN THE HWO...FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF S. FLORIDA. BERYL, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT, SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND AN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN TO MORE W-SW FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH AND E PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (LAKE OKEE/EAST COAST) ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND MAY START BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE GOM, NOT ONLY CUTTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT ALSO RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...MOSTLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SFC WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 74 90 73 88 / 20 40 20 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 74 88 / 20 40 20 50 MIAMI 75 90 73 89 / 20 40 20 50 NAPLES 74 88 73 88 / 10 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514431 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 118 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON, MONROE, LEHIGH AND BERKS COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FFA ISSUING NOW..ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE. HEAT: 12Z IAD SOUNDING OFFERS FULL SUN MAX THERE OF 96! 12Z OKX ITS 95. ITS A DRY SOUNDING RIGHT NOW SO WE SHOULD COOK TODAY AND THINK TODAY WILL END UP HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY BY 2 DEGS. THEREFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AND SHOULD SEE HI EXCEED 96F. SVR: PWAT STARTS AT 1.35. IAD/APG AND OKX 12Z SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 93/67 AND AM GETTING ABOUT 50J CIN AND 1500-2000J CAPE. SO WE NEED TO OVERCOME THE CIN BEFORE BUSTING LOOSE. CT OFFERED ARD 52 SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE OM VIL IN THE 60-65 RANGE THIS AFTN. EL ABOUT 39. AM THINKING WE WILL SEE ISO OR SCT SVR W OF I95 THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN E PA AND NW NJ THEN SPS/SMW/FLS/FFS THEREAFTER I95 EWD. THIS SVR RISK IS BASED ON HIGH MLCAPE OF 2000J WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF THE WANING EML AND GOOD TIMING OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELED SHEAR IS NOT IDEAL BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH. PLS SEE 1254Z SWOMCD. WE MODIFIED THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING AND IT MIRRORS IAD/APG/OKX BUT WITHOUT CIN! FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. NO HEADLINE YET TIL WE SEE EVOLUTION DURING MIDDAY AND ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE. CONVECTION ONSET MAY BE DELAYED IN A SPECIAL 1015 AM GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE PENDING RECEIPT OF THE 12Z NAM. CIN INHIBITS THE START...ESPECIALLY SE OF I95. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZATION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHEAST. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE MOVING...TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION EASES TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE SPECTER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GRADUATED TO INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE. IT MAY TEND TO WANE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS IN THE MDLS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, BUT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFS, BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN IT SHOULD BE DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE IMPORTANT CF (WHEN WE TRANSITION TO A COMFORTABLE THURSDAY), IS FCST TO CROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER ON AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME LOW POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS). FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINE MOST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...DURING WHAT SHOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE THE GRADIENT FLOW BACKING OFF LATER THIS EVENING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CUT OFF ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE TENDS TO RUN TOO HIGH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CASES (PROBABLY BRINGING TOO MUCH MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN A LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT). IT MAY BE DOING THIS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE SEAS BACK JUST A BIT AND KEEP THEM BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVEMENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. MONTHLY CLI WILL BE UPDATED BY 945 AM. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062- 067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG |
| #514430 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:14 PM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 111 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... SCA CONDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE UPDATED MARINE FCST IN SECTION BELOW TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILDING WAVES...LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS. PREV DISC... THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE REMAINS WILL EXIT THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AS WEAK S/WV TROF PUSHES EWD. BEHIND IT WIDESPREAD CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...MARINE LYR WILL HANG TOUGH IN ONSHORE FLOW. WARM FNT NOW DRAPED FROM KSLK TO KGFL TO KORH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS NEWD. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING ERODING THE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AND PRES FALLS TO THE N WILL LIFT THE FNT INTO MOST OF NH. HI-RES/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS MOST OF THE THE STATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE LOW 70S...KGFL 73 DEGREES AT 10 AM!...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THE REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED LYR WILL BE MODERATING WITH TIME TODAY...BUT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LVLS WILL REMAIN NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES BLO 3 KM...CREATING INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS NEXT S/WV TROF IGNITES TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL NY CONDS ACROSS NH WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS STORMS ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTN/EVE. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND THE PRESENCE OF SHARPLY DEFINED LLVL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH ANY SFC BASED STORM CROSSING THE FNT. FINALLY...PWAT VALUES AOA 1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAFL WITH TSTMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH MUCH OF NRN NH AND ADJACENT ME RECEIVING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RA OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE COME UP AND ARE VERY CHOPPY. BACKDOOR FRONT CONTS TO PRESS WESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ JC/CL |
| #514429 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 PM 29.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... CUMULUS FIELD VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF IT NOW. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 10 PERCENT TODAY...SO HAVE NO PLANS TO COVER IN FORECAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES...BUT DID NOT SEE THEM OCCUR THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD FALL BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 66 91 70 / 10 10 20 20 BTR 92 70 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 ASD 92 70 90 71 / 10 10 20 10 MSY 91 73 89 73 / 10 10 20 10 GPT 91 71 88 72 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 94 69 91 70 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514428 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 PM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1223 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FFA ISSUING NOW..ITS A WATCH. MOST OF THE AREA NO FF...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY HAVE A PBLM IN DARKNESS...ESP SE PA/N DE. HEAT: 12Z IAD SOUNDING OFFERS FULL SUN MAX THERE OF 96! 12Z OKX ITS 95. ITS A DRY SOUNDING RIGHT NOW SO WE SHOULD COOK TODAY AND THINK TODAY WILL END UP HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY BY 2 DEGS. THEREFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AND SHOULD SEE HI EXCEED 96F. SVR: PWAT STARTS AT 1.35. IAD/APG AND OKX 12Z SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 93/67 AND AM GETTING ABOUT 50J CIN AND 1500-2000J CAPE. SO WE NEED TO OVERCOME THE CIN BEFORE BUSTING LOOSE. CT OFFERED ARD 52 SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE OM VIL IN THE 60-65 RANGE THIS AFTN. EL ABOUT 39. AM THINKING WE WILL SEE ISO OR SCT SVR W OF I95 THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN E PA AND NW NJ THEN SPS/SMW/FLS/FFS THEREAFTER I95 EWD. THIS SVR RISK IS BASED ON HIGH MLCAPE OF 2000J WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF THE WANING EML AND GOOD TIMING OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELED SHEAR IS NOT IDEAL BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH. PLS SEE 1254Z SWOMCD. WE MODIFIED THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING AND IT MIRRORS IAD/APG/OKX BUT WITHOUT CIN! FLOOD: COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. NO HEADLINE YET TIL WE SEE EVOLUTION DURING MIDDAY AND ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE. CONVECTION ONSET MAY BE DELAYED IN A SPECIAL 1015 AM GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE PENDING RECEIPT OF THE 12Z NAM. CIN INHIBITS THE START...ESPECIALLY SE OF I95. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZATION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHEAST. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE MOVING...TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION EASES TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE SPECTER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GRADUATED TO INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE. IT MAY TEND TO WANE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS IN THE MDLS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, BUT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFS, BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN IT SHOULD BE DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE IMPORTANT CF (WHEN WE TRANSITION TO A COMFORTABLE THURSDAY), IS FCST TO CROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER ON AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME LOW POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS). FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINE MOST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...DURING WHAT SHOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE THE GRADIENT FLOW BACKING OFF LATER THIS EVENING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CUT OFF ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE TENDS TO RUN TOO HIGH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CASES (PROBABLY BRINGING TOO MUCH MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN A LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT). IT MAY BE DOING THIS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE SEAS BACK JUST A BIT AND KEEP THEM BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FFA ISSUED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVEMENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. MONTHLY CLI WILL BE UPDATED BY 945 AM. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062- 067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG |
| #514427 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:32 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1223 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...THERE A BREAK IN THE RAIN. LOWERED SHOWER CHANCE TO JUST GO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. ORGNL DISC: INTERMITTENT SHWRS WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA FROM QB AS A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND WARM OCCLUSION APCH TDY AND TNGT. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH PDS...AND ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM40...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY...EVEN THOUGH TSTMS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE PRESENT IN THE FA DURG THE ENTIRETY OF BOTH PDS...THEY ARE SUBJECT TO OCCURRING AT ALMOST ANYTIME...SO WE INCLUDE A CHC OF TSTMS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THRU BOTH PDS. WHATS LEFT OF THE ELEVATED CAPE ALG WITH SHWR CVRG DIMINISHES BY SUNRISE WED WITH THE APCH OF THE WARM OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS WERE A LITTLE QUICKER TO BRING THE BACK EDGE OF SIG QPF OUT OF THE FA DURG THE WED 06-12Z...SINCE THEY ARE MOVING THE OCCLUSION A LITTLE FASTER EWRD DURG THIS PD. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE TRICKY...SINCE A SIG BREAK BETWEEN SHWRS AND ANY BREAKS IN CLD CVR COULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING ABV LOW FCST HI TEMPS...BASED ON LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND CONTINUOUS THICK LOW CLD AND SHWR PRESENCE. IT`S TO DIFFICULT TO SECOND GUESS THE GOING FCST OF HI TEMPS ATTM...SO IT REMAINS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO POST TNGTS FCST LOWS...WHICH ARE NOT MUCH COOLER THAN TDY`S HI TEMPS...NO LATER THAN MDNGT WITH RISING 925 MB TEMPS LATE TNGT RESULTING IN SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN THE ERLY PRE-DAWN HRS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BURNING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO A WARM DAY. HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BY OVER 10 DEGREES F AND STILL MAY BE TOO LOW. H850 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 80S IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS HEATING...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS BANGOR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 60S...BUT FROM MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD UPPER TROF AND THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAKES ADDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AN EASY CHOICE...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN TO NEAR 40F IN THE ALLAGASH AND UPPER 40S ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE DOWN EAST COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON EARLY SATURDAY AND THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN ZONES. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE STATE AND KEEP SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A 70F READING IN THE SJV. PRECIP WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLOWLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE A RISK DOWN EAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY SO CLOUDINESS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO IFR BY EVENING IN LOW CLDNSS...SHWRS AND FOG AND AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE FA FROM THE W AND SRLY SFC WINDS FROM OFF THE ATLC UNDERCUTS THIS AIR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DOWN EAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. IFR RETURNS LATE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INCREASING S WINDS AND FETCH LENGTH WILL BRING CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER MZS LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE...BUT STABLE SFC TO BL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT WV HTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE... WITH EV HTS XPCTED TO MAX OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE BY ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE...RICH LLVL TROP DEWPOINTS IN CONTACT WITH THE WATERS LATER TDY INTO TNGT WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER VSBYS BLO 1 NM. SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCB |
| #514426 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:26 PM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO REFLECT ONGOING WARMING TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...MAY SEE A SHORT-TIME FOR MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KLRD AND KALI (BASED ON SATELLITE) BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH TEMPOS BECAUSE OF IT. COULD HAVE BRIEF MVFR FOG AT KALI AND KVCT. OTHERWISE...NO MAIN ISSUES WITH VFR EXPECTED AOA 15Z (IF MVFR CONDITIONS DO OCCUR)...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TODAY (JUST A FEW KNOTS THOUGH) OTHERWISE TYPICAL WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE BACKING WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. COULD HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 92 73 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 10 10 VICTORIA 94 71 95 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 20 LAREDO 104 76 106 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 10 ALICE 98 72 99 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 ROCKPORT 90 78 91 79 89 / 0 0 0 10 10 COTULLA 100 73 102 74 99 / 0 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 95 72 97 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 91 77 91 79 90 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514423 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:47 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1137 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .UPDATE... Upon further review, we made some last-minute adjustments to our PoP forecast for this afternoon. Recent observations and RAP forecasts indicate the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be in the 15 to 20 KT range, which would likely pin any sea breeze to the coast. Indeed, the most recent HRRR run simulated reflectivity does not show much sea breeze convection at all. It appears that the convective band to our south (the rain band from tropical depression Beryl that dumped a foot of rain in Lafayette County) is the only significant convergence band in our region. Significant cloud cover has kept SBCAPE values low in GA. The main point of all this is that there may be few mesoscale boundaries than we though earlier this morning, and the thermodynamics may not be as favorable either. Thus we lowered our PoP and QPF forecast. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514422 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:27 AM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER...LESS HUMID AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS NEW ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE... VISIBILITIES ACROSS RI/E MA HAVE BEEN IMPROVING EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM MARINERS OF LOW VSBYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ERODING FROM W-E...SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS/DEWPTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING QUITE QUICKLY ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT. NOTING POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPTS ACROSS W CT/SE NY...RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 70S WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S AT 14Z. BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HAVE NOTED THAT 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOTH KALY AND KOKX INDICATING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE LIFTING WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH E TO CAUSE CONVECTION TO KICK OFF. NE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NEAREST CONVECTION EXITING N NH/ME...THEN JUST MOVING ACROSS E OH/LAKE ERIE REGION AT 1438Z. MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY TRY TO DEVELOP ONCE FULL SUN KICKS IN BUT LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT THE EARLIEST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATE INTO NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MID-UPR LVL RIDGE WILL EASE EWD INTRODUCING GREATER CYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AHEAD OF A TROF AXIS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS S CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRNT FROM THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRAG INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN LATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WX. LOOKING FOR MODEST SWLY FLOW /ENHANCED BY LEAD SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT PARENT TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/ CONTINUALLY ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRNT. FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTN PD INSTABILITY WILL MEASURE AROUND 2000 J/KG...YET WITH MINOR SHEAR AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REGISTER AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE WSW /THE GREATER SHEAR IS TO THE W COLLOCATED WITH THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRNT/. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO OUTCOMES AND SPECIFICS...IT APPEARS ATMOS WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS PA/NY AND THE SUBSEQUENT ENERGY WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE WRN ZONES BY THE LATE AFTN HRS. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MEAGER...AM NOT CONFIDENT AS TO DISCREET CONVECTION. RATHER BELIEVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT WILL PROVIDE DEEP LYR LIFT OF THE UNSTABLE LOW-MID LVLS. INITIAL MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO BOTH THE COLD FRNT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UP TO H8...BOTH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PSBL FOR THE WRN FCST AREAS INTO THE EVNG PD. ITS PSBL SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL IMPACT INTO THE NRN AND ERN ZONES...BUT THEN IT BECOMES A QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR ADVECTED ONSHORE PER SEA-BREEZE PROCESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY PUSHES THRU THE FCST RGN. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ANTICIPATED THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS /POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING. THERE IS AN UNDERLYING QUESTION OF WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL SUSTAIN /AS LIKELY THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL DECOUPLE AND STABILIZE THRU THE OVRNGT PD/. THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORMS MAINTAINING ANY SEVERITY AS THEY COME CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM LEFT FEELING THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE WITH THE COLD FRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARM/HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WED & A RISK OF TSTMS * COOLER/DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES THU * NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEARS FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60HRS/12Z THU THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITIONS. NEVERTHELESS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME THIS PERIOD WHICH FEATURES AN EVOLVING MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SUPPORTS A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL WE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND APPROACH HERE...INCLUDING INCORPORATING HPC GUID. ON A SIDE NOTE THE GEFS PROJECTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WITH VALUES APPROACHING -2.5. THIS WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST CANADA...FAVORING TEMPERATURES AOB NORMAL HERE IN SNE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... WED... GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LINGERS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AS PWATS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT +2 STD. HOWEVER WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE SURFACE FRONT FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-FIRING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING EXIST. LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS AS THE EC AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST MARGINAL MUCAPES OF AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. THU... SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LWRNC RVR VLY. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BERYL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER FRONT MAY NOT EXIT RI AND SOUTHEAST MA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO A WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR PROBABLY AT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CU BUT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION. THUS DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. FRI... COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER BUT MILD TEMPS AND MUCH LESS HUMID BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MORNING LOWS IN THE MU40S POSSIBLE INLAND. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COOL MORNING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY AFTN. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S LIKELY. SEABREEZES LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN WEAK PGRAD. SAT/SUN/MON... THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. GFS DIFFERS ON MAGNITUDE AND TIMING. SO SOMEWHAT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE HERE. GIVEN THIS AND TIME RANGE HERE WE WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...BUT BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MON AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND E MA/RI WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS LINGER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT EVEN ALONG THE COAST BY 17Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTN AND ESP AFTER DUSK. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP THRU TERMINALS 22Z-09Z WITH THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY WED MORN. IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED WITH STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO PSBL...YET LOW CONFIDENCE E OF THE CT RVR VLY. SLY FLOW BECOMING WLY IN WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. FOG ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE S/E FCST AREAS INTO LATE EVNG TUE INTO EARLY MORN WED. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. 15Z TAF FROM KBOS REPORTS 1 1/2SM SURFACE VSBY BUT DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR TWR VSBY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRENDED TO IMPROVE SO SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND 17Z THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH 04Z THEN MAY LOWER TO MVFR-IFR IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS... APPEARS TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. COULD SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 05Z. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR/VFR AGAIN IN SCT AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SHIFTING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... OVERVIEW... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT /REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS/ WILL RESULT IN SWELL ACROSS THE S WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR HAZ SEAS POSTED ACCORDINGLY INTO WED MORN. IT IS DURING THE TUE NGT INTO WED PD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT THAT SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH ANY STORMS...GALES WILL BE PSBL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED/THU...SCT TSTMS ESP WED. SSW SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY ARRIVE LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. FRI...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LINGER SSW SWELLS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...SHOWERS AND LOW VSBY POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #514421 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1114 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THAT THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING. THE BEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER OUR SC AREAS...WHICH MAY ALSO BE THE SAME AREA WHERE SOME ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD CANOPY SHOULD BECOME THICKER WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CUT DOWN ON INSTABILITY. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST QPF FORECASTS FROM HPC STILL GOING WITH TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF OUR SC ZONES. NOTICED THAT THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATING THAT SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TD BERYL ACROSS GA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES CONCERNED IT MAY LEAD TO LOWER QPF VALUES. HAVE NUDGED QPF VALUES DOWN JUST A TAD FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO DO ANY SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF QPF TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING THEM BELOW MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND HIGH/CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ONGOING BY SUNSET AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL APPROACHES THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SOMETIME AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PERSIST WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINING HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COAST AND THE AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND BERYL...COMBINED WITH BETTER INSOLATION UNDER SCATTERING SKY COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHERN SECTIONS UNDER LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THURSDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPAWNING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY...BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE FRONT COULD CROSS THE COASTLINE NO EARLIER THAN THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO CAP POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY PEAKING AROUND 90 DEGREES...JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THICKER SKY COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DRAWS CLOSER. SHOULD SEES STEADY RAINS FILL IN AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OCCURRING. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY...BUT THE CHANCES FOR MORE STEADY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAV AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT KCHS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR FORECAST TODAY. CURRENT SCAS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT AMZ350 AND CHARLESTON HARBOR LOOKS GOOD. HAVE SEEN OBSERVATIONS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND INTO THE HARBOR EARLIER...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH 15-20 KT MORE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE TODAY...RANGING FROM 4-5 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINING MARINE LEGS. TONIGHT...VERY CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST AS THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GET. CURRENT NHC/MODEL TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INLAND FROM THE COAST AND KEEPING A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE AS BERYL MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KT. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...15-20 KT LOOKS COMMON WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH 6 FT SEAS REACHING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. WILL INITIALIZE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONCURRENT WITH THE OTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BERYL WILL STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING ADVISORIES SHOULD COME TO AN END NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. RIP CURRENTS...ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND AND SWELL WAVE GENERATED BY BERYL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH RISK FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES WERE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO BERYL. HOWEVER OPTED TO KEEP THE RISK MODERATE FOR NOW PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE. THE NEED FOR A HIGH RISK WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING THAT SOME DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MAY BE TRYING TO WORK INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS TREND IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER QPF AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR NOW. IN GENERAL...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOTE: THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ |
| #514420 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1114 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 14Z ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PVA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB THAT PRECLUDED CONVECTION HERE YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER PRESENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A BUILDING CAP NEAR 700 MB.BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE ALREADY AROUND 700 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. TIMING OF STORMS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z SPC WRF. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 20Z FOR THE NW ZONES...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CITY NEAR 22-23Z. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE...HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT PROFILE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS DID NOT MIX OUT MUCH IF AT ALL DURING DEEPER MIXING AND BEFORE ANY SEABREEZE KICKED IN. WINDS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BUT WITH LESS OF A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT FORECAST...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SPOTS ACROSS THE CITY AND NE NJ REACH HEAT INDEX VALES OF 95. SINCE VALUES FELL SHORT OF THIS THRESTHOLD IN THE CITY YESTERDAY...NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S HEAT AS PER LOCAL POLICY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM S-SW. PUSHED THUNDERSTORM TIMING AN HOUR AHEAD FROM LAST FCST. OVERALL...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WESTERN TERMINALS GETTING AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS THIS EVENING AND KSWF LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS STILL HAVE PROB30 SINCE IT IS MORE IN THE MID EVENING UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE AND THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... UPDATED FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514419 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1005 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MORNING CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGERY OVER SE TX AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A MARINE LAYER TO 3500 FEET WHICH SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO MIX OUT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO TEMPS AND CLOUD GRIDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE ZONES. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT FOG TO THE AREA TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY. VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW CU OVERHEAD AND POSSIBLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA. APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED PWAT AND MID LEVEL THTE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOIST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AND CORRESPONDING PWAT FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. APPROACH OF FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF SCEC CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. SHARPENING TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER WEST TEXAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 71 90 73 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 KBPT 92 71 90 75 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 KAEX 95 67 95 70 89 / 10 0 10 10 30 KLFT 92 68 93 72 88 / 10 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514418 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1103 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES AS OF 14Z ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PVA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650 MB THAT PRECLUDED CONVECTION HERE YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER PRESENT ON THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A BUILDING CAP NEAR 700 MB.BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 30KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE ALREADY AROUND 700 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. TIMING OF STORMS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z SPC WRF. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 20Z FOR THE NW ZONES...SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CITY NEAR 22-23Z. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE...HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SIMILAR DEWPOINT PROFILE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YESTERDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS DID NOT MIX OUT MUCH IF AT ALL DURING DEEPER MIXING AND BEFORE ANY SEABREEZE KICKED IN. WINDS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BUT WITH LESS OF A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT FORECAST...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SPOTS ACROSS THE CITY AND NE NJ REACH HEAT INDEX VALES OF 95. SINCE VALUES FELL SHORT OF THIS THRESTHOLD IN THE CITY YESTERDAY...NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S HEAT AS PER LOCAL POLICY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. KGON AND KBDR WHO ARE OBSERVING LIFR WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY VFR TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL MENTION SHRA WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z...COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHEAST WINDS...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... UPDATED FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514416 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... PCPN THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE NW DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT..BUT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE LINGERING OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS FEATURE AS WE STILL SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT/ SET TO MIX DOWN TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR NEXT BEST/DECENT CHCS OF PCPN SHOULD BE THURS AS MODELS (NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT) DRAW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PREVIOUS- LY ADVERTISED LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (LFQ) EXPECTED TO HELP PRO- DUCE A LINE OF TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH IT ACROSS SE TX. DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRAS DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DRIER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO KEEP THINGS QUIET DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FORM- ING BY NEXT TUES/WEDS WITH THE SEABREEZE BEING THE FOCUS OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVE POPS. 41 MARINE... THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 NEARSHORE AND 10-15 OFFSHORE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR RED RIVER AND INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SETX LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE FLOW TO WARRANT SCEC AND PROBABLY SCA BY THURSDAY SUNRISE FOR WINDS AND SEAS NEARING 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. 45 AVIATION... SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT CXO/LBX. DEBRIS CI FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS (WHICH 00Z MODELS DIDN`T CATCH ON TO) MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE IAH AREA NORTHWARD. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 72 95 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514415 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1049 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE REMAINS WILL EXIT THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AS WEAK S/WV TROF PUSHES EWD. BEHIND IT WIDESPREAD CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...MARINE LYR WILL HANG TOUGH IN ONSHORE FLOW. WARM FNT NOW DRAPED FROM KSLK TO KGFL TO KORH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS NEWD. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING ERODING THE MARINE FOG/STRATUS AND PRES FALLS TO THE N WILL LIFT THE FNT INTO MOST OF NH. HI-RES/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS MOST OF THE THE STATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE LOW 70S...KGFL 73 DEGREES AT 10 AM!...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. THE REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED LYR WILL BE MODERATING WITH TIME TODAY...BUT LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LVLS WILL REMAIN NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES BLO 3 KM...CREATING INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS NEXT S/WV TROF IGNITES TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL NY CONDS ACROSS NH WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS STORMS ENTER THE CT RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTN/EVE. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND THE PRESENCE OF SHARPLY DEFINED LLVL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH ANY SFC BASED STORM CROSSING THE FNT. FINALLY...PWAT VALUES AOA 1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAFL WITH TSTMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH MUCH OF NRN NH AND ADJACENT ME RECEIVING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RA OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514414 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1049 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STILL REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TDA AS HIPRES IS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EWD THRU THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY THIS AFTN AND TNGT. A MAINLY CLOUD-FREE MRNG ACROSS THE AREA WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN. YDA...THE CAP DELAYED ONSET OF CU FIELD UNTIL THE MID AFTN. THE CAP...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER TDA...WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THIS AFTN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ERY THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH THAT IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE WIND FIELD ALOFT HAS INCREASED THIS MRNG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RATHER MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA LATE TDA AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT BECOME WORKED OVER FROM ANY ERY AFTN CONVECTION...THEN THE THREAT OF SVR WEATHER WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS AS STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASING LIFT/SHEAR PROFILES COINCIDE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN LINES. STILL A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF BERYL...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVE. WHILE STORM MOTION IS FCST TO INCREASE LATER TDA...FCST CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING STORMS. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVE INTO THE SAME LOCATION. AFTER LOOKING AT THE NEWEST GUIDANCE...WILL CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY FOR AREAS WITH RELATIVELY LOW FFG /NRN VA-ERN WV-WRN MD/. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... WITH SWEEP OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...THE SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF HOT/HUMID DAYS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE IN FAVOR OF LESS SUMMER-LIKE DAYS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WED...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL SLIDE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY W/ A LIGHT SLY BREEZE. WINDS OVER THE MID ATLC WILL CERTAINLY BE LIGHTER THAN JUST A SHORT JOG TO THE SE WHERE THE T.D. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK OFF THE COAST /OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS/ AND CONTINUE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA ON WED. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PREVENT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM MAKING MORE PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GOOD CONSISTENCY W/ PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION FOR OUR AREA /WED-THU/...AN ANOMALOUSLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CURVE DOWN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE MID ATLC ENJOYS OUR COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED W/ THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN UPON ARRIVING OVER THE MID MS VLY...PULLING A WARM FRONT UP FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND OVER THE MID ATLC LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL BE WRAPPED TIGHTLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF...AND WILL LARGELY PIVOT AROUND JUST TO OUR NORTH/EAST ON FRI-SAT BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE THE AREA SUFFICIENT CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO BASICALLY THE FIRST PART OF THE SYSTEM`S ARRIVAL W/ SOME SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WHILE THE AREA IS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA ON SAT...ENDING PRECIP LATER IN THE AFTN AND KEEPING THE AREA COOL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ERY THIS AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAF SITES FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVE...WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL NARROW DOWN TIMING OF STORMS AT EACH TERMINAL IN SUBSUQENT TAF UPPDATES. RESTRICTIONS INVOF TSRA BRIEF BUT MAY DROP TO IFR LVLS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. POST CFP...WNDS BECOME WNWLY AND CIGS RISE TO MAINLY MID DECK. VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE MIDWEST LATE THU/FRI AND EXIT OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. && .MARINE... HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR ALL MARINE ZONES STARTING AT NOON. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS AFTN. SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND EVE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AN IMPACT OF STORMS IN THE WATERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTN AND THRUOUT THE EVE. STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HVY RAIN. MARINERS SHUD MONITOR FOR POTL SMW/S. WNDS WL BE VEERING WLY OVNGT AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. STORMS WL BE DCRSG AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRI...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT SCA CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535- 536-538. && $$ UPDATE...KLEIN |
| #514413 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 1046 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE BEHIND IT ON THE WAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4PM AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINS MOVE IN. HAVE ALSO UPPED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE UPDATE. && .AVIATION... WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR TPA/PIE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAIN BAND FROM BERYL...THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT INLAND AWAY FROM TAF SITES. ALSO MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. && .MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR THE NORTH THROUGH 4PM. REST OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS- HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ |
| #514409 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TD BERYL...LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE ADJACENT WATERS AND THE DIURNAL SHIFT HAS BEGUN EARLY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TONIGHT AS BERYL BEGINS TO APPROACH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UVV FIELDS LOOK IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPECT DECENT RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER ARE NOT HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 1800 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8" NEAR THE COAST WITH FAIRLY LOW LFC`S. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS ANY TIME AFTER 14Z...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND 17-18Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BOUTS OF BRIEF IFR ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES EVEN MORE AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS TOWARDS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING FOUND ALONG THE GA AND NORTHERN FL COASTS BETWEEN TD BERYL AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SC COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SEAS ARE ALREADY ROUGHED UP AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 5 FOOTERS PREVAILING. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO SHORE 3-4 SEAS PREVAIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND MORESO INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL TD BERYL MOVING NEAR THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514408 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 ...Flood threat appears to be ending in North FL... .DISCUSSION... The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed the broad center of tropical depression Beryl near Fitzgerald, GA. Its radar presentation is much less impressive than 24 hours ago. The main convective band with Beryl has finally shifted just south of our forecast area after producing over a foot of rain in Lafayetter County (based on radar estimates). It`s unclear whether or not this band will shift back to the north. If it does, we would be concerned about more heavy rain and perhaps even isolated damaging wind gusts. (There have been a few long- lived super cells over the Gulf coastal waters in this band, where the airmass is extremely unstable and there is 25-30 KT deep layer vertical wind shear). Assuming this rain band stays just to our south, we still expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. The consensus of Convection Allowing Models shows numerous cells developing, and the Precip Water values over most of our region are still above average. We expect several mesoscale boundaries to trigger the convection as the daytime heating reaches its peak, including a strong FL Panhandle sea breeze front (owing to the orthogonal lower tropospheric flow), and any outflow and/or convergence bands set up in the wake of Beryl. Rain chances will range from 40% over our western zones to 70% to our east. The threat for flooding outside of the Taylor-Dixie- Lafayette County areas appears lower now since the Precip Water values are beginning to drop from west to east. Temperatures will be hottest (mid 90s) to our west, and below average (mid 80s) to our east with the increased clouds. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS continue this morning at the DHN, ABY and VLD terminals. These conditions may linger into the afternoon especially at ABY and VLD. Otherwise, scattered convection is expected to develop this afternoon and may briefly impact each terminal. Winds will be from the west to northwest 10 to 15 kts and gusty at times. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #514405 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 29.May.2012) AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1027 AM AST TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA SO FAR THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 1.50 INCHES TO 1.80 INCHES... INCREASING ABOVE 2.00 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER AND BIGGER SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. A VERY DRY AND HAZY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONLY FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS EXPECTED. MVFR AND LCL MTN OBSCURATIONS PSBL AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR PR IN SHRA/TSRA... ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST PR QUARTER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM AST TUE MAY 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL THEN ESTABLISH FOR THE WEEKEND. DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT IS FCST TO INCREASE WED AND THU AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 50W. FOR TODAY...ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM YDAY IS THE STEERING FLOW WITH 0-6KM MEAN FLOW MORE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND FROM THE SOUTH ON WED. EXPECT A BIT MORE ACTIVITY WED AND ESPECIALLY THU AS MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER. SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEAN. EXPECT TO SEE DRYING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI WITH ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. NOTE THAT WHILE THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY THERE IS A TON OF MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOISTURE WITH 500-100 MB RH NEARLY SATURARED. SO SKY GRIDS CARRY A LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW A STRONG CAP WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 20C AND EXTREMELY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT H85 IN EXCESS OF 20C BUT WITH SATURATED ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 500 MB. AGAIN...SKY CVR GRIDS CARRY A LOT OF CLOUD CVR BUT NO WX DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS AND STRONG CAP. EXPECT TO SEE SOME DUST HAZE WITH POSSIBLE SIG REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. NOT AS DRY SUN INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AS AREA REMAINS UNDER UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN AMPLIFLYING TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONT. MVFR AND LCL MTN OBSCURATIONS PSBL AGAIN IN AFTERNOON OVER PR INTERIOR IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST PR QUARTER. ELSEWHERE A STRAY SHRA MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR FOR TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND BLO FL200 TO GRADUALLY TURN SE TODAY AND EVEN S SOME LVLS ON WED...BUT REMAIN BLO 15 KTS. MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WED AND THU WITH SCT TSRA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME DUST HAZE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REDUCED VSBYS. FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE WED AND THU BUT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY IN THAT AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT UNDER A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TEMPER THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 76 89 76 / 20 0 20 20 STT 85 79 85 79 / 20 10 10 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ |
| #514404 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:29 AM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1020 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE AS OF 10 AM EDT...STRATO CU HANGING TOUCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE SUNSHINE AND OVERALL A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (ESP THE MD EASTERN SHORE)...THERE`S PLENTY OF SUN TO START THE DAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL VA TODAY SO TRIMMED BACK EXPECTED MAX HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. CONVERSELY...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON THE EASTERN SHORE 1-2 DEGREES GIVEN TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 80S LATE THIS MORNING WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NON-EXISTENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES TDY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NE OVR SOUTHERN GA AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTER A PRTLY CLDY AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN HRS (ESPECIALLY OVR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND TROPICAL MSTR SURGING NORTHWARD. TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75"...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW LATE TNGT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WED AFTN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN ISSUE W/ ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TNGT TRANSITIONING TO JUST CHC POPS WED OVR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES (AND STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE) WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED W/ R+ TO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NE NC AS THAT IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGGED. HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CLOUDINESS DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S. QPF REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF BERYL AND TIMING W/ THE COLD FRNT/UPR TROUGH...1-2 INCHES MOST COMMON ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. DRYING CONDITIONS THU...W/ DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER. PER HPC...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO EURO. HAVE PCPN BEGINNING IN WRN PORTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PCPN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO THE PCPN. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND FOR BETTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO 85 COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 60 TO 65. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LO END MVFR CIGS (1000-1500FT) HV DVLPD INTO RGN DURG PAST HR OR TWO...GENLY FM SE VA INTO CSTL NE NC. XPCG MVFR CIGS TO CONT INTO MID MRNG B4 BREAKING. GENLY VFR LT MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THOUGH INCRSG PROB CNVTN THIS EVE AND TNGT AS CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W...AND LO PRES TRACKS NE NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS. HI PROB FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND SHRAS/TSRAS OVR RGN FM ABT 04-06Z/30 THROUGH ABT 18-20Z/30...B4 PCPN SHIFTS TO THE CST. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. && .MARINE... HI PRES OFFSHR...RESULTING IN SSW WNDS AVGG ABT 15 KT RIGHT NOW. PREVAILING LLVL FLO WL RMN FM THE SSW THROUGH TNGT. WNDS BCM MR VRBL ON WED AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA AND LO PRES PASSES ENE NR THE ERN NC CST. HIGHEST SPDS (TO PSBLY 20-25 KT) INVOF NE NC CSTL WTRS...ELSW SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. A SCND CDNFT CROSSES THE WTRS ERY THU. COMBO LO PRES TRACKING OUT TO SEA AND PD OF LLVL CAA POST CDFNT WL BRING A SURGE IN SPDS FM THE NNW LT WED NGT INTO THU. KEEPING SPDS BLO SCA FOR NOW. WNDS BCM E THEN SSE ON FRI...AND INCRS IN SPD AHD OF NEXT CDFNT APPROACHING LT FRI. SCAS RMNG UP FOR NRN 3 OCN ZONES...THOUGH SEAS XPCD TO BE MARGINAL (AVG ARND 5 FT). PSBL SCAS NEEDED FOR SRN OCN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS OFF ERN NC. HIGHEST SPDS W/ THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN OFFSHR/IN ESE QUADRANT. MONITOR TPC FOR INFO/TRACK OF BERYL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #514402 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:05 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 954 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...TD BERYL CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES NNE OF VALDOSTA GA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A FASTER NORTHEAST MOVEMENT LATER TODAY. THROUGH TONIGHT...BAND OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA ROUGHLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4 THIS MORNING...AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD. CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE DRYING HAS WORKED INTO MID LEVELS BUT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. SSW FLOW NEAR 20 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT THOSE AREAS. 09Z RAP RUN INDICATES SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...GIVING THE AREA SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO TO FORM. PERSISTENCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON TRENDS. && .AVIATION...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP...ESP POINTS NEAR AND NW OF KISM-KMCO-KEVB THROUGH 16Z AND VFR SOUTHWARD. INCREASING TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER INLET THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST SOUTHWARD OF KTIX-KMLB-KVRB-KSUA TO JUPITET INLET. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR AREAWIDE AFTER 30/02Z. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP CAUTION HEADLINE FOR NORTHERN OFFSHORE SEGMENT WITH LATE MORNING PACKAGE. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED. BOATERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THE COAST FROM THE MAINLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH STORMS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514401 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 948 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... TO THE NORTH OVER GEORGIA WE FIND TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH WE FIND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE OLD CUBAN BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER MIAMI DADE COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO OTHER ECHO RETURNS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE DRY AIR IS CONFINED ABOVE 600 MB THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING AND THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS KEEPING THE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. .FORECAST... ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY CLOUD LINES WILL DRIFT OFF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE DAYTIME THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MAINLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...TRAVEL NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH LITTLE DRY AIR BELOW 600 MB EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CUBAN BOUNDARIES MAY MAKE THE CROSSING INTACT...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW...AND UPDATE IF NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DICHOTOMY IN THE LARGE SCALE LIFTING BETWEEN THE MODELS. WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS WELL. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... THROUGH 00Z/30TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .CLIMATE... KEYS WEATHER DATELINE...1926...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES AND SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...WHICH STANDS 86 YEARS LATER. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514400 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:53 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 849 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .UPDATE... .SOUNDING DISCUSSION... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH A MOIST SOUNDING BELOW 650 MB. PW VALUE OF 1.75 INCHES WITH AN LI OF -2.4 THIS MORNING. AN OVERCAST LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND 5700 FEET WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEW ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. A VERY DRY SOUNDING ABOVE 13,000 FEET ASL. A LIGHT TO MODERATE PREDOMINATELY WEST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT ALL LEVELS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1005MB LOW OR REMNANT LOW OF TD BERYL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO...TROUGH AXIS FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS WERE 1.6 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.62 INCH AT JACKSON. GFS INITIALIZED A MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERYL TO NORTHWEST GULF TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO MEMPHIS. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. DISCUSSION... WESTERLY WILL FINALLY ESCORT BERYL EAST THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BUT LIGHT. THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRACK EAST PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER HEATING YIELDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...5H TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE FROM -6C TO -11C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH PW VALUES 1.5 INCHES AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST CONUS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND BRINGING THE MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY RATHER THAN PREDAWN FRIDAY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ISOTACH ANALYSIS FROM GFS SHOWED A JET MAX OF 80 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST MONTANA TO THE AKLATEX ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...LINE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN SOUTH FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT MONDAY. MARINE... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TODAY AS WELL. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG ISSUE. BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY BUT OVERALL BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI BUT COULD STALL RIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TAKING OVER. 13/MH AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND COULD EFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 13/MH DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 66 91 70 / 10 10 20 20 BTR 92 70 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 ASD 92 70 90 71 / 10 10 20 10 MSY 91 73 89 73 / 10 10 20 10 GPT 91 71 88 72 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 94 69 91 70 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514399 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 948 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1330Z STANDARD ESTF UPDATE RAISED TEMPS A DEG OR 2 TODAY. HEAT: 12Z IAD SOUNDING OFFERS FULL SUN MAX THERE OF 96! 12Z OKX ITS 95. ITS A DRY SOUNDING RIGHT NOW SO WE SHOULD COOK TODAY AND THINK TODAY WILL END UP HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY BY 2 DEGS. THEREFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AND SHOULD SEE HI EXCEED 96F. SVR: PWAT STARTS AT 1.35. IAD/APG AND OKX 12Z SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 93/67 AND AM GETTING ABOUT 50J CIN AND 1500-2000J CAPE. SO WE NEED TO OVERCOME THE CIN BEFORE BUSTING LOOSE. CT OFFERED ARD 52 SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE OM VIL IN THE 60-65 RANGE THIS AFTN. EL ABOUT 39. AM THINKING WE WILL SEE ISO OR SCT SVR W OF I95 THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN E PA AND NW NJ THEN SPS/SMW/FLS/FFS THEREAFTER I95 EWD. THIS SVR RISK IS BASED ON HIGH MLCAPE OF 2000J WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF THE WANING EML AND GOOD TIMING OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELED SHEAR IS NOT IDEAL BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH. PLS SEE 1254Z SWOMCD. WE MODIFIED THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING AND IT MIRRORS IAD/APG/OKX BUT WITHOUT CIN! FLOOD: WE ARE CONSIDERING FFA FOR E PA AND N DE IN THE 22Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. NO HEADLINE YET TIL WE SEE EVOLUTION DURING MIDDAY AND ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE. CONVECTION ONSET MAY BE DELAYED IN A SPECIAL 1015 AM GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE PENDING RECEIPT OF THE 12Z NAM. CIN INHIBITS THE START...ESPECIALLY SE OF I95. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZATION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHEAST. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE MOVING...TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION EASES TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE SPECTER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GRADUATED TO INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE. IT MAY TEND TO WANE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS IN THE MDLS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, BUT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFS, BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN IT SHOULD BE DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE IMPORTANT CF (WHEN WE TRANSITION TO A COMFORTABLE THURSDAY), IS FCST TO CROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER ON AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME LOW POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS). FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINE MOST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...DURING WHAT SHOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE THE GRADIENT FLOW BACKING OFF LATER THIS EVENING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CUT OFF ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE TENDS TO RUN TOO HIGH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CASES (PROBABLY BRINGING TOO MUCH MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN A LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT). IT MAY BE DOING THIS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE SEAS BACK JUST A BIT AND KEEP THEM BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z30 - TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVEMENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. MONTHLY CLI WILL BE UPDATED BY 945 AM. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG |
| #514398 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 AM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL BEGINNING A GRADUAL EXIT... .UPDATE... TD BERYL IS BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING SE GA. PRECIP IS DIMINISHING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-75 WITH A BAND OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CROSSING COASTAL AREAS OF SE GA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GNV. CANNOT RULE OUT SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTN AS CONDITIONS MAY DESTABILIZE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED THIS MORNING WEST OF I-75...WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL RETAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION... RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING MVFR...SHRA...AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AND HAVE VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TD BERYL WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN WEST AS BERYL DEPARTS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERAL SWLY FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL HOLD FROM THU-SAT WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY...LOW RISK WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 67 92 70 / 100 60 40 50 SSI 81 71 90 74 / 100 70 30 40 JAX 84 70 92 70 / 100 60 40 40 SGJ 86 72 90 72 / 100 60 40 40 GNV 85 70 93 70 / 90 50 40 30 OCF 87 71 93 71 / 100 50 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON- BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN- COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE- WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514397 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 AM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...TD BERYL...LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE ADJACENT WATERS AND THE DIURNAL SHIFT HAS BEGUN EARLY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TONIGHT AS BERYL BEGINS TO APPROACH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UVV FIELDS LOOK IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPECT DECENT RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER ARE NOT HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 2100 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8" NEAR THE COAST WITH FAIRLY LOW LFC`S. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS ANY TIME AFTER 14Z...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND 17-18Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BOUTS OF BRIEF IFR ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES EVEN MORE AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS TOWARDS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING FOUND ALONG THE GA AND NORTHERN FL COASTS BETWEEN TD BERYL AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFF THE SC COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. SEAS ARE ALREADY ROUGHED UP AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 5 FOOTERS PREVAILING. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO SHORE 3-4 SEAS PREVAIL. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND MORESO INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL TD BERYL MOVING NEAR THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514396 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:41 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 931 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL BE A BREAK ACROSS THE NORTH BUT RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNEAST. WARM HUMID AIR SURGING NORTH...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RECHARGE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. COOL DAMP AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH TODAY SO LOWERED HIGHS A BIT. TEMPS COULD RISE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ORGNL DISC: INTERMITTENT SHWRS WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA FROM QB AS A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND WARM OCCLUSION APCH TDY AND TNGT. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH PDS...AND ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM40...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY...EVEN THOUGH TSTMS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE PRESENT IN THE FA DURG THE ENTIRETY OF BOTH PDS...THEY ARE SUBJECT TO OCCURRING AT ALMOST ANYTIME...SO WE INCLUDE A CHC OF TSTMS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THRU BOTH PDS. WHATS LEFT OF THE ELEVATED CAPE ALG WITH SHWR CVRG DIMINISHES BY SUNRISE WED WITH THE APCH OF THE WARM OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS WERE A LITTLE QUICKER TO BRING THE BACK EDGE OF SIG QPF OUT OF THE FA DURG THE WED 06-12Z...SINCE THEY ARE MOVING THE OCCLUSION A LITTLE FASTER EWRD DURG THIS PD. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE TRICKY...SINCE A SIG BREAK BETWEEN SHWRS AND ANY BREAKS IN CLD CVR COULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING ABV LOW FCST HI TEMPS...BASED ON LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND CONTINUOUS THICK LOW CLD AND SHWR PRESENCE. IT`S TO DIFFICULT TO SECOND GUESS THE GOING FCST OF HI TEMPS ATTM...SO IT REMAINS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO POST TNGTS FCST LOWS...WHICH ARE NOT MUCH COOLER THAN TDY`S HI TEMPS...NO LATER THAN MDNGT WITH RISING 925 MB TEMPS LATE TNGT RESULTING IN SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN THE ERLY PRE-DAWN HRS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BURNING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO A WARM DAY. HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BY OVER 10 DEGREES F AND STILL MAY BE TOO LOW. H850 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 80S IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS HEATING...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS BANGOR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 60S...BUT FROM MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD UPPER TROF AND THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAKES ADDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AN EASY CHOICE...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN TO NEAR 40F IN THE ALLAGASH AND UPPER 40S ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE DOWN EAST COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON EARLY SATURDAY AND THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN ZONES. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE STATE AND KEEP SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A 70F READING IN THE SJV. PRECIP WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLOWLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE A RISK DOWN EAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY SO CLOUDINESS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO IFR BY EVENING IN LOW CLDNSS...SHWRS AND FOG AND AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE FA FROM THE W AND SRLY SFC WINDS FROM OFF THE ATLC UNDERCUTS THIS AIR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DOWN EAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. IFR RETURNS LATE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INCREASING S WINDS AND FETCH LENGTH WILL BRING CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER MZS LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE...BUT STABLE SFC TO BL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT WV HTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE... WITH EV HTS XPCTED TO MAX OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE BY ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE...RICH LLVL TROP DEWPOINTS IN CONTACT WITH THE WATERS LATER TDY INTO TNGT WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER VSBYS BLO 1 NM. SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCB |
| #514395 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 AM 29.May.2012) AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... FRESH TO STRONG...GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME WEAKENING IN THE WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LIGHT. HOWEVER LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... NO SURPRISES IN STORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FORECAST. THE HIGH FAR TO OUR NORTH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER...CONTINUING TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO THE ISLANDS. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS KEPT RAINFALL TOTALS LIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS AT BOTH LIHUE AND HILO HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES. LIHUE REPORTED 0.81 INCHES AND HILO 1 INCH. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT SHOWS 80% OF NORMAL PW OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED CUMULUS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE STABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS AT THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF HALEAKALA AND THE BIG ISLAND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS START TO DROP. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND SINKING SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE RESULTING WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER HE ISLANDS SHOULD MEAN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS SHOW INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS A BIT...TO ALLOW FOR A WETTER TRADE WIND PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND LOOK TO HAVE BRING A MORE TYPICAL STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER TO THE AREA. && .MARINE... EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AT LEAST SOME AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS...HOWEVER WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SUSPECT THAT THE AREAS COVERED WILL START TO SCALE BACK AT THAT TIME. THE ABOVE NORMAL SEAS AND SWELL THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EXPOSED EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. AS THE TRADES DECREASE...THE CHOPPY SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE. WILL BE MONITORING THIS SITUATION TODAY TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT AN EXTENSION TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NEEDED. && .AVIATION... AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ISOL SEVERE TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE BELOW 8 KFT LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MID-WEEK...SO EXPECT AIRMET TANGO TO CONTINUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS AS LOW CLD AND -SHRA CARRIED BY THE TRADES AFFECT SOME WINDWARD TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE TURBULENCE MAY OCCUR IN THE CLEAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED HIGH ABOVE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...SIGMET NOVEMBER SERIES HAS BEEN ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING TO DESCRIBE THIS POTENTIAL THREAT TO HIGH ALTITUDE AIRCRAFT. THIS THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST- WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS- && $$ |
| #514392 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 925 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM TUE...MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TO LIKELY IN A SWATH ALONG PAMLICO SOUND TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN COMES UP AND ATMOS MIXES OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 915 AM TUE...NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO FORECAST EXCEPT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE PAMLICO SOUND. PREV DISCUSSION...00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA |
| #514391 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:27 AM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 918 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HEAT: 12Z IAD SOUNDING OFFERS FULL SUN MAX THERE OF 96! 12Z OKX ITS 95. ITS A DRY SOUNDING RIGHT NOW SO WE SHOULD COOK TODAY AND THINK TODAY WILL END UP HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY BY 2 DEGS. THEREFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AND SHOULD SEE HI EXCEED 96F. SVR: PWAT STARTS AT 1.35. IAD/APG AND OKX 12Z SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 93/67 AND AM GETTING ABOUT 50J CIN AND 1500-2000J CAPE. SO WE NEED TO OVERCOME THE CIN BEFORE BUSTING LOOSE. CT OFFERED ARD 52 SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE OM VIL IN THE 60-65 RANGE THIS AFTN. EL ABOUT 39. AM THINKING WE WILL SEE ISO OR SCT SVR W OF I95 THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN E PA AND NW NJ THEN SPS/SMW/FLS/FFS THEREAFTER I95 EWD. THIS SVR RISK IS BASED ON HIGH MLCAPE OF 2000J WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF THE WANING EML AND GOOD TIMING OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELED SHEAR IS NOT IDEAL BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH. PLS SEE 1254Z SWOMCD. FLOOD: WE ARE CONSIDERING FFA FOR E PA AND N DE IN THE 22Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. NO HEADLINE YET TIL WE SEE EVOLUTION DURING MIDDAY AND ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZATION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHEAST. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE MOVING...TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION EASES TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE SPECTER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GRADUATED TO INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE. IT MAY TEND TO WANE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS IN THE MDLS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, BUT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFS, BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN IT SHOULD BE DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE IMPORTANT CF (WHEN WE TRANSITION TO A COMFORTABLE THURSDAY), IS FCST TO CROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER ON AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME LOW POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS). FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINE MOST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...DURING WHAT SHOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE THE GRADIENT FLOW BACKING OFF LATER THIS EVENING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CUT OFF ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE TENDS TO RUN TOO HIGH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CASES (PROBABLY BRINGING TOO MUCH MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN A LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT). IT MAY BE DOING THIS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE SEAS BACK JUST A BIT AND KEEP THEM BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVEMENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE KPHI SRF PRODUCT WE ISSUE DAILY WILL BE EXPANDED BEGINNING JUNE 5TH...WEATHER PERMITTING. WE HOPE YOU WILL FIND THE NEW PRODUCT MORE USEFUL FOR ONE STOP WEATHER SHOPPING FOR THE SHORE. POINT AND CLICK WILL ALWAYS BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR DETAILS. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. MONTHLY CLI WILL BE UPDATED BY 945 AM. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 29TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT AROUND PLUS 4.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.3F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST MAY...THE FINER DETAILS TBD THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/29 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. AROUND PLUS 5.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.0F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND OR THIRD WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND AROUND OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG |
| #514387 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:57 AM 29.May.2012) AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 848 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HEAT: 12Z IAD SOUNDING OFFERS FULL SUN MAX THERE OF 96! 12ZOKX ITS 95. ITS A DRY SOUNDING RIGHT NOW SO WE SHOULD COOK TODAY AND THINK TODAY WILL END UP HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY BY 2 DEGS. THEREFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES AND SHOULD SEE HI EXCEED 96F. SVR: PWAT STARTS AT 1.35. IAD/APG AND OKX 12Z SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 93/67 AND AM GETTING ABOUT 50J CIN AND 1500-2000J CAPE. SO WE NEED TO OVERCOME THE CIN BEFORE BUSTING LOOSE. CT OFFERED ARD 52 SO AM EXPECTING TO SEE OM VIL IN THE 60-65 RANGE THIS AFTN. EL ABOUT 39. AM THINKING WE WILL SEE ISO OR SCT SVR W OF I95 THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN E PA AND NW NJ THEN SPS/SMW/FLS/FFS THEREAFTER I95 EWD. THIS IS HIGH ML CAPE BASED. MODELED SHEAR IS NOT IDEAL. FLOOD; WE ARE CONSIDERING FFA FOR E PA AND N DE IN THE 22Z-08Z TIME FRAME. COMBO OF URBAN AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE RURAL AFTER WEEKEND RAINS LEFT PARTS OF W BUCKS/NE BERKS AND S LEHIGH ONLY ABLE TO PROCESS ABOUT 1.2 INCHES IN 3 HRS BEFORE FLOODING OCCURS. CARBON AND MONROE TRIGGER AT 1.55 FOR 3 HRLY. NO HEADLINE YET TIL WE SEE EVOLUTION DURING MIDDAY AND ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZATION. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHEAST. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE MOVING...TRAINING BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION EASES TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS RAISES THE SPECTER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. WHILE THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GRADUATED TO INDICATE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE. IT MAY TEND TO WANE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...LOWS WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WEDNESDAY...THIS FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY SE OF I95. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFS IN THE MDLS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END, BUT EVEN WITH THESE DIFFS, BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTN IT SHOULD BE DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE IMPORTANT CF (WHEN WE TRANSITION TO A COMFORTABLE THURSDAY), IS FCST TO CROSS THE REGION AND COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS BUT AGAIN, MDLS DIFFER ON AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SOME LOW POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED. THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE MIDWEST WHERE A STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WRT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES BUT ALSO SOME BIG DIFFS. THEY WANT TO BEGIN THE PRECIP FRI EVENING AND BRING THE BULK OF IT THRU FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS WANTS TO LINGER THE PRECIP THRU MOST OF SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS IT OUT RELATIVELY EARLY ON SAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CMC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE PRECIP IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT DATA WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THRU, ONE EARLY MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY AS S/WVS MOVE THRU THE FLOW. THE ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURG THIS TIME. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER THERE ISN`T CONFIDENCE IN MUCH ELSE. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL GENLY BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IMPINGING ON KRDG AND KABE...AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NEW TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT ARRIVES A BIT LATER AT THE KPHI METRO AIRPORTS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 2200 UTC AND 0200 UTC). GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS). FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY LOCATION THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOP IN FOG. AFTER 0600 UTC...MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW. WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KMIV/KACY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT W WIND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES EXPECTED KACY/KMIV. CHC LATE DAY SHOWER VCNTY KABE AND KRDG NEAR SECONDARY BUT MORE IMPT COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THRU FRI...VFR. NW-N GUSTS 15-20 KT ON THU. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ...DETERIORATING CONDS AND PDS OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR PSBL. HVY RAIN PSBL. CFP WILL END PRECIP BY AFTN. ESE WIND BECOMING S THEN W BEHIND CFP WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT AFTN. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINE MOST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...DURING WHAT SHOULD BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE THE GRADIENT FLOW BACKING OFF LATER THIS EVENING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CUT OFF ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER THIS...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ARE ANOTHER MATTER. THE WNAWAVE TENDS TO RUN TOO HIGH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CASES (PROBABLY BRINGING TOO MUCH MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE IN A LOW INVERSION ENVIRONMENT). IT MAY BE DOING THIS AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL SHADE SEAS BACK JUST A BIT AND KEEP THEM BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... SUB ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENLY IN PLACE. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UNLIKE LATE LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...SLOW MOVING CELLS SHOULD NOT BE ISSUES...AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD EXCEED 15 KNOTS. THE MORE LIKELY PROBLEM FOR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. PWAT WILL GROW FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.3-1.4 TO 1.75 BY 03Z TONIGHT ALONG I95. THE INITIAL THREAT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. GRIDDED ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND DELAWARE VALLEY (WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS WEEKEND). THE LOWEST VALUES...CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...LIE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THIS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TRAINING CELLS THIS FAR OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY GET A BETTER LOOK AS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNING LATER TODAY. THE LATER THREAT INCLUDES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS THE REMNANT OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH EASES TO THE EAST...IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. THE 0000 UTC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOISTURE COULD BE SIPHONED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF BERYL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY HIGH (DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY SANDY SOIL). THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE PROBLEMS DEVELOP. SINCE THIS MUCH RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HERE EITHER. THE EXCEPTION HERE COULD BE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO...IF SOME OF THE MOISTURE ENTRAINED FROM BERYL COULD GET INVOLVED WITH THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION EARLY ENOUGH...THE ABOVEMENTIONED AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE A PROBLEM. WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS A A LIKELY ENOUGH OPTION TO EXPLORE VERY DEEPLY THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. && .CLIMATE... FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON YDY AT KILG-91 KACY-90 AND KPHL 91. MAX HEAT INDEX YDY EQUALED 95 AT KILG/KPHL AND 93 KPNE AND 97 AT KRDG...AND 94 TO 98 ACROSS DE/E MD SHORE. THIS SUMMERTIME EVENT WAS WELL MODELED AT LEAST AS EARLY AS LAST TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR TODAY MAY 29 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SEEMINGLY OUT OF REACH. RER SAMPLING IS KABE/KPHL 95...KILG 93-1991 AND PRIOR YEARS... KGED 92 1955. THINK WE HAVE A CHC FOR A RECORD AT KGED AND KILG. MONTHLY CLI WILL BE UPDATED BY 945 AM. KPHL CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR ITS 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS. OCTOBER WAS THE MOST RECENT MONTH OF NEAR NORMAL WHICH I CONSIDER TO BE WITHIN 0.5F OF NORM. NOV 3.7 DEC 5.8 JAN 4.9 FEB 5.2 MAR 8.7 APR 1.5 MAY FOR KPHL... AS OF 8 AM TODAY-MAY 28TH...CONTINUES TO PROJECT PLUS 4.4F OR EQUIVALENT TO 68.2F WHICH WOULD RANK TOP 5 WARMEST...WELL BELOW THE RECORD 70.8 IN 1991, AND THE 69.2 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1874 KABE IS ON TRACK FOR 2ND WARMEST MAY. SEP 3.4 OCT 1.3 NOV 3.9 DEC 6.1 JAN 5.5 FEB 5.9 MAR 10.7 APR 1.3 MAY AT KABE...IS PROJECTING..BASED ON THE 00Z/28 MIDNIGHT SHIFT GRIDDED FCST INFORMATION.. PLUS 5.5F OR EQUIVALENT TO 66.1F WHICH WOULD RANK 2ND WARMEST BEHIND THE 67.2 OF 1991, AND JUST AHEAD OF THE 66.0 IN 1944 AND 65.9 IN 2004. POR DATES BACK TO 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015- 017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG/DRAG 848A |
| #514385 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...MAY SEE A SHORT-TIME FOR MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KLRD AND KALI (BASED ON SATELLITE) BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH TEMPOS BECAUSE OF IT. COULD HAVE BRIEF MVFR FOG AT KALI AND KVCT. OTHERWISE...NO MAIN ISSUES WITH VFR EXPECTED AOA 15Z (IF MVFR CONDITIONS DO OCCUR)...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TODAY (JUST A FEW KNOTS THOUGH) OTHERWISE TYPICAL WIND DIRECTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE BACKING WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. COULD HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO BRIEF TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT IS BEYOND THE TIME OF THE SHORT TERM SO IN SHORT IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WARM TO 26C...WHICH MEANS EVEN WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. 700 MB TEMPS REMAIN 12C-14C. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BRING SOME HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105F OR MORE WESTERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT CRITERION. GENERALLY GOING WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE (AGAIN) FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A 2F-3F WARM UP EACH DAY WESTERN AREAS BASED ON WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STAYING CLOSER AGAIN TO THE NAM-MOS FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AT TO DEEPEN. LOOKS LIKE SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS STARTING TO HONE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS WEEK...WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL WITH WHERE OUR FORECAST HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND WASH IT OUT OVERHEAD. TIMING HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT SO HAVE INDICATED THAT...MAINLY IN NEW WIND PROGS. AT THIS TIME ALLOWING NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WINDS TO SHIFT MAINLY NORTH FOR A TIME EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WINDS ARE ALREADY SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR ALL AREAS. STARTING TO ALSO GET INTO THE FORECAST RANGE OF THE NAM...AND IT IS LOOKING RELATIVELY SIMILAR...BUT MAYBE JUST A BIT SLOWER WITH SURFACE FRONT. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS TAKEN A DETOUR TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND PRETTY UNREALISTICALLY CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND PULLS IT VERY QUICKLY FROM MONTANA ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...AND SLIGHTLY OFF SHORE...WITH A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. NOT SURE WHERE THIS IS COMING FROM AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN REASONABLY IN LINE WITH GFS AND ECMWF. EXPECT FUTURE RUNS WILL FLIP BACK TO MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. BACKED OFF POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND. THINK WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET SOME STREAMER TYPE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MANAGE AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. OTHER THE WEEKEND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS...SO WHAT COOLDOWN WE EXPERIENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING MOISTURE BACK QUICKLY...AND GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. STICKING WITH 10 POPS FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 92 73 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 10 10 VICTORIA 94 71 95 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 20 LAREDO 104 76 106 76 101 / 0 0 0 10 10 ALICE 98 72 99 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 ROCKPORT 90 78 91 79 89 / 0 0 0 10 10 COTULLA 100 73 102 74 99 / 0 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 95 72 97 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 91 77 91 79 90 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514384 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 29.May.2012) AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 647 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING BUT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HEAT WILL PERSIST TODAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING UPPER CONVERGENCE...BUILDING THICKNESS VALUES...AND STRENGTHENING OUR CAPPING INVERSION. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY WITH MOST MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 100MB. TEMPS WERE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW. WITH BUILDING THICKNESSES AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE WILL WARM UP A HALF STEP TODAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN WITH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW AND INCOMING SEA BREEZE FRONT...SO WHILE SOME OF THE MORE INLAND AREAS MAY MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON LESSENING HUMIDITY A BIT...THE COASTAL REGIONS AND MUCH OF THE REST OF VALLEY WILL BE QUITE HUMID TODAY...WITH PROJECTED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THE STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO FLAT AFTERNOON CU. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACCORDINGLY. CONTINUING A MORE BREEZY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID. WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE SPIKE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY SINCE IT IS ONE OF THE MORE PRONOUNCED EPISODES SO FAR THIS SEASON. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL NEED SOME HELP TO MAKE IT DOWN INTO SOUTH TEXAS...BUT THAT HELP WILL EVENTUALLY COME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS AND DEVELOP A STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND HIGH PRESSURE ON THE BACKSIDE WILL PUSH INTO WEST TEXAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY NEAR THE COAST...BREEZY ELSEWHERE...WITH A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND ENCOURAGING HIGHER TEMPS FOR THE DAY. A HEAT LOW INLAND WILL ALSO HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND REINFORCE THE HIGHER WINDS. SHOULD AGAIN SEE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE READINGS OUT WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE IN MOST AREAS... WITH 105 TO 108 HEAT INDEX READINGS IN ZAPATA COUNTY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT INCHES CLOSER...WHILE WINDS DECREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING AND OFFSETTING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT DIFFERENT DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT ON TOP OF THE CWA. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS JUST A BIT COOLER DUE TO AN EAST WIND. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WILL POOL AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SHIFTS EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE OR BREEZY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS GULF HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS OR TSTMS MOVING CLOSER TO THE CWA EACH NIGHT...AND FINALLY ACTUALLY THREATENING TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY ON THE LAGUNA AND NEAR SHORE TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. MORE STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA AND NEAR SHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE SEVEN FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LAST MOST OF THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON THE LAGUNA WILL INCREASE TO ART LEAST 20 KNOTS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY AS WELL. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY EQUALIZE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CUT OFF WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL ALREADY SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL THEN RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514383 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 719 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT OVER COASTAL CONNECTICUT...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SW CT COAST BACK SE TO NEAR MONTAUK POINT...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THIS FRONT UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AROUND THEN A COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND THE FRONT LIFTING N ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE AND S CENTRAL CT AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD. HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. DID NOT GO WITH POPS QUITE AS LOW AS HRRR...DID BLEND IN NAM AND SREF 3-HR POPS AND 6Z MAV/0Z MET POPS. HOWEVER...RESULT IS THE SAME...NO FORECASTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS VERY LOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF SHEAR...ONLY 15-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 800 J/KG OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 15-25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR - MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 11000 FT MINIMIZING THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE LOW VALUES OF SHEAR ALSO HELP KEEP BULK RICHARDSON VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50...AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE 50...PROMOTING MAINLY PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC. HAVE PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN FOR AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING A IT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CITY ZONES. FOR NOW HAVE NO BASIS TO CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE EVEN GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR THE COAST...850 HPA INLAND...WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NYC METRO GETTING TO OR RIGHT ABOVE 90. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. KGON AND KBDR WHO ARE OBSERVING LIFR WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY VFR TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL MENTION SHRA WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z...COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHEAST WINDS...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... UPDATED FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514382 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 719 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE... .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO ADJUSTED TIMING OF CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS FEEDER BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WITH KVAX/KJAX SHOWING CORE RAINS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT HAS BEGUN IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW REESTABLISHMENT OF WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE STEERING FLOW NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT SO BERYL WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE OFF THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...WHICH IS SIMILAR THE LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PLACE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SPECIFIC HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WORK FROM SOUTH-NORTH THIS MORNING WHILE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT LOOK APPROPRIATE THROUGH SUNSET ALONG WITH A MENTION OF RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE VARIOUS MODEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSTICATIONS...BUT THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES SUGGEST THE RISK FOR TSTMS WILL NOT BE OVERLY HIGH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE STEADIER RAINS WILL ARRIVE LAST TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ONGOING BY SUNSET AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL APPROACHES THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SOMETIME AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PERSIST WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINING HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COAST AND THE AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND BERYL...COMBINED WITH BETTER INSOLATION UNDER SCATTERING SKY COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHERN SECTIONS UNDER LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THURSDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPAWNING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY...BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE FRONT COULD CROSS THE COASTLINE NO EARLIER THAN THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO CAP POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY PEAKING AROUND 90 DEGREES...JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THICKER SKY COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DRAWS CLOSER. SHOULD SEES STEADY RAINS FILL IN AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OCCURRING. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY...BUT THE CHANCES FOR MORE STEADY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAV AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT KCHS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 12-15Z WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH 15-20 KT MORE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE TODAY...RANGING FROM 4-5 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINING MARINE LEGS. THE GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE WATERS OFF BEAUFORT COUNTY SEAS SEAS WILL TONIGHT...VERY CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST AS THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GET. CURRENT NHC/MODEL TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INLAND FROM THE COAST AND KEEPING A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE AS BERYL MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KT. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...15-20 KT LOOKS COMMON WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH 6 FT SEAS REACHING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. WILL INITIALIZE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONCURRENT WITH THE OTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BERYL WILL STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING ADVISORIES SHOULD COME TO AN END NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. RIP CURRENTS...ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND AND SWELL WAVE GENERATED BY BERYL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH RISK FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES WERE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO BERYL. HOWEVER OPTED TO KEEP THE RISK MODERATE FOR NOW PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE. THE NEED FOR A HIGH RISK WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE CYCLONE ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH AN AXIS OF VERY TROPICAL AIR FEATURING PWATS AROUND 2.40 INCHES BECOMING SITUATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE EXTREMELY RARE FOR LATE MAY AND RANK ROUGHLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE PER KCHS RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. NEAR RECORD PWATS COUPLED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 3-4 IN/HR IN THE BANDS OF MOST INTENSE RAIN. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...THE INTENSITY OF THESE RAINFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 1-HOUR AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. RAIN RATES COULD GO EVEN HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS CORE RAINS TRY AND REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ |
| #514381 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 623 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT FOG TO THE AREA TERMINALS...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY. VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW CU OVERHEAD AND POSSIBLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. && MARCOTTE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA. APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED PWAT AND MID LEVEL THTE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOIST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AND CORRESPONDING PWAT FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. APPROACH OF FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF SCEC CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. SHARPENING TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER WEST TEXAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 71 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 KBPT 92 71 90 75 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 KAEX 94 67 95 70 89 / 0 0 10 10 30 KLFT 93 68 93 72 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514380 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 715 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT EAST COAST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND AROUND 12 TO 14 KNOTS AROUND 18Z AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MAINLY EAST COAST TERMINALS AFFECTED AND ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z. WITH OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...BNB/BD .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROXIMITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEA/LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. THIS, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WL EXPECT MOST STORMS TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP KEEPING NAPLES AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE MENTION IN THE HWO...FOCUSING MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF S. FLORIDA. BERYL, OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT, SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND AN ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN TO MORE W-SW FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH AND E PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (LAKE OKEE/EAST COAST) ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND MAY START BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE GOM, NOT ONLY CUTTING THE MOISTURE INFLUX, BUT ALSO RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MARINE...MOSTLY PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SFC WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 87 74 90 73 / 50 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 89 74 / 30 20 40 20 MIAMI 90 75 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 NAPLES 89 74 88 73 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514379 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 714 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 715 AM TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREV DISC...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN COMES UP AND ATMOS MIXES OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 715 AM TUE...CURRENT MARINE ZONES MATCH UP WELL WITH LAND/BUOY OBS. NO CHANGES NEEDED. 00Z GFS IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR THE REMANANS OF BERYL SO HAVE RELIED ON IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #514378 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 707 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER...LESS HUMID AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS NEW ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 AM UPDATE... ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT TRENDS. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND INCLUDING BOSTON AND THE NORTH SHORE ARE NOW REPORTING VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS. GIVEN STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. BETTER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW-MID LVL WARM FRNT HAS PUSHED NEWD AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA. AM FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME AN ISSUE. IT IS BELIEVED THAT SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE LOW-LVLS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PARENT TO THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASHED ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVR THE RGN IN A SHORT PD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY S NH INTO THE MORNING PD. WILL BE MONITORING THE WAVE TRAIN OF CONVECTION PARENT TO THE WARM FRNT...FEEL ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. FOCUS WILL BE UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF ANTICIPATED AROUND THE MORNING HRS FOR THAT RGN. S AND SE SHORELINES ARE IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. FOG HAS BEEN VARIABLE IN PARTS NOT MAINTAINING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT ALL TIMES. HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE OF BOTH A SPS AND DENSE FOG ADV FOR THIS EVNG. THE IMPACT OF AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED EXTENSIVELY WITHIN THE FCST THE LAST FEW FCST PACKAGES. TODAY... MID-UPR LVL RIDGE WILL EASE EWD INTRODUCING GREATER CYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AHEAD OF A TROF AXIS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS S CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRNT FROM THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRAG INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN LATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WX. LOOKING FOR MODEST SWLY FLOW /ENHANCED BY LEAD SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT PARENT TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/ CONTINUALLY ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRNT. FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTN PD INSTABILITY WILL MEASURE AROUND 2000 J/KG...YET WITH MINOR SHEAR AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REGISTER AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE WSW /THE GREATER SHEAR IS TO THE W COLLOCATED WITH THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRNT/. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO OUTCOMES AND SPECIFICS...IT APPEARS ATMOS WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS PA/NY AND THE SUBSEQUENT ENERGY WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE WRN ZONES BY THE LATE AFTN HRS. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MEAGER...AM NOT CONFIDENT AS TO DISCREET CONVECTION. RATHER BELIEVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT WILL PROVIDE DEEP LYR LIFT OF THE UNSTABLE LOW-MID LVLS. INITIAL MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO BOTH THE COLD FRNT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UP TO H8...BOTH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PSBL FOR THE WRN FCST AREAS INTO THE EVNG PD. ITS PSBL SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL IMPACT INTO THE NRN AND ERN ZONES...BUT THEN IT BECOMES A QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR ADVECTED ONSHORE PER SEA-BREEZE PROCESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY PUSHES THRU THE FCST RGN. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ANTICIPATED THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS /POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING. THERE IS AN UNDERLYING QUESTION OF WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL SUSTAIN /AS LIKELY THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL DECOUPLE AND STABILIZE THRU THE OVRNGT PD/. THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORMS MAINTAINING ANY SEVERITY AS THEY COME CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM LEFT FEELING THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE WITH THE COLD FRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARM/HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WED & A RISK OF TSTMS * COOLER/DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES THU * NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEARS FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60HRS/12Z THU THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITIONS. NEVERTHELESS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME THIS PERIOD WHICH FEATURES AN EVOLVING MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SUPPORTS A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL WE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND APPROACH HERE...INCLUDING INCORPORATING HPC GUID. ON A SIDE NOTE THE GEFS PROJECTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WITH VALUES APPROACHING -2.5. THIS WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST CANADA...FAVORING TEMPERATURES AOB NORMAL HERE IN SNE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... WED... GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LINGERS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AS PWATS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT +2 STD. HOWEVER WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE SURFACE FRONT FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-FIRING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING EXIST. LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS AS THE EC AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST MARGINAL MUCAPES OF AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. THU... SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LWRNC RVR VLY. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BERYL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER FRONT MAY NOT EXIT RI AND SOUTHEAST MA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO A WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR PROBABLY AT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CU BUT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION. THUS DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. FRI... COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER BUT MILD TEMPS AND MUCH LESS HUMID BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MORNING LOWS IN THE MU40S POSSIBLE INLAND. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COOL MORNING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY AFTN. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S LIKELY. SEABREEZES LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN WEAK PGRAD. SAT/SUN/MON... THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. GFS DIFFERS ON MAGNITUDE AND TIMING. SO SOMEWHAT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE HERE. GIVEN THIS AND TIME RANGE HERE WE WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...BUT BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MON AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW... 7 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE DENSE FOG ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. LIFR WITH VSBYS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR BY 16Z EXCEPT 18Z OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. CONFIDENT INTO MORNING THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPACT OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CIGS/FOG. SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS E OF CT RVR VLY. VSBYS 2SM OR LESS WILL AFFECT THE S SHORELINE. BOTH CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO MORNING BURNING OFF W TO E. EXPECT VFR WITH CLEARING INTO THE MIDDAY PD. INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTN AND ESP AFTER DUSK. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP THRU TERMINALS 22Z-09Z WITH THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY WED MORN. IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED WITH STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO PSBL...YET LOW CONFIDENCE E OF THE CT RVR VLY. SLY FLOW BECOMING WLY IN WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. FOG ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE S/E FCST AREAS INTO LATE EVNG TUE INTO EARLY MORN WED. KBOS TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR 16Z-18Z. UNCERTAIN AS TO TIMING AND TSRA TOWARDS THE LATE END OF THE PD. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH SHRA AND MVFR VSBY. KBDL TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-17Z. SHRA AND PSBL TSRA INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND DUSK. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER PICTURE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR/VFR AGAIN IN SCT AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SHIFTING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... OVERVIEW... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT /REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS/ WILL RESULT IN SWELL ACROSS THE S WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR HAZ SEAS POSTED ACCORDINGLY INTO WED MORN. IT IS DURING THE TUE NGT INTO WED PD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT THAT SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH ANY STORMS...GALES WILL BE PSBL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED/THU...SCT TSTMS ESP WED. SSW SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY ARRIVE LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. FRI...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LINGER SSW SWELLS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...SHOWERS AND LOW VSBY POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007- 015>024. NH...NONE. RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #514375 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:05 AM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 650 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 645 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z BEFORE WANING. QPE NUMBERS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES. RADAR CONTINES TO SHOW TRAINING CELLS OVER THE AREA AND IMMEDIATELY UPSPREAM. A SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER HEIGHTENING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. STORMY DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LLJ CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z BEFORE WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDESTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASED FORCING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514376 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:05 AM 29.May.2012) AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 750 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 645 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14 TO 15Z BEFORE WANING. QPE NUMBERS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES. RADAR CONTINES TO SHOW TRAINING CELLS OVER THE AREA AND IMMEDIATELY UPSPREAM. A SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER HEIGHTENING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. STORMY DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LLJ CONVERGENCE AND WEAK WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z BEFORE WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THUNDESTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NEW YORK...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID AFTERNOON AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL AND ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW LEVEL STABILITY IN MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH THE COAST. PWATS REMAIN HIGH...SO TRAINING STORMS WOULD PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASED FORCING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOSED LOW STILL SET TO DAMPEN THE WEEKEND WEATHER...HOWEVER SOME TIMING DIFFS SHOWING UP AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ZERO IN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND BE THE CAUSE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007-012. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514373 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:02 AM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 700 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...LATEST UPDATE FROM THE NHC ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK OR INTENSITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE MODIFIED BELOW DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA...BUT THERE IS NO PRACTICAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS APPROACHING SHORE BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NEAR TERM FORECAST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. BERYL...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING UP THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFF OF CAPE FEAR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...SO WIND WILL NOT BE THE MAJOR CONCERN. AT THIS POINT...MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING IN SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEPRESSION. HAVE RAISED A FLOOD ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA TO GIVE US A MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO TRACK UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS MAY TRIM THIS BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IT IS CURIOUS THAT NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE NOT GONE WITH 100 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ASSOCIATED P/W VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE MOVING ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD...DO NOT SEE HOW ANYONE COULD GO WITH ANYTHING BUT 100 POPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER AREN/T HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 2100 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.8" NEAR THE COAST WITH FAIRLY LOW LFC`S. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS ANY TIME AFTER 14Z...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AROUND 17-18Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BOUTS OF BRIEF IFR ARE LIKELY IN THE HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES EVEN MORE AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS TOWARDS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE ON BERYL FROM THE NHC. NEAR TERM FORECAST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. BERYL...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING UP THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF OF CAPE FEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEAR TERM...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS REACHING AROUND 6 FT WILL COVER THE THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514374 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:02 AM 29.May.2012) AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 654 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...LATEST UPDATE FROM THE NHC ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK OR INTENSITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE MODIFIED BELOW DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA...BUT THERE IS NO PRACTICAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS APPROACHING SHORE BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NEAR TERM FORECAST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. BERYL...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING UP THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFF OF CAPE FEAR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...SO WIND WILL NOT BE THE MAJOR CONCERN. AT THIS POINT...MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING IN SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEPRESSION. HAVE RAISED A FLOOD ADVISORY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA TO GIVE US A MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO TRACK UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS MAY TRIM THIS BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IT IS CURIOUS THAT NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE NOT GONE WITH 100 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ASSOCIATED P/W VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE MOVING ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD...DO NOT SEE HOW ANYONE COULD GO WITH ANYTHING BUT 100 POPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON GFS 850-925 LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH POTENT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS STRAIGHT OFF THE ATLANTIC...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 1800 UTC. STILL A BIT UNSURE AS TO WHY THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS AND THE MET NUMBERS FOR THAT MATTER AREN/T HOVERING AROUND 100 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 2100 UTC. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MIXED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. THE PROXIMITY IS GOOD AS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIE BETWEEN 0 AND 120 DEGREES. STORM MOTIONS OF JUST OVER 30 MPH ARE CONDUCIVE AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LACKING UNDER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AS IS THE 0-3KM SHEAR SHOWING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VALUES. THE NEW DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC DOESN/T HAVE ANY MENTION IN OUR AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN OLD FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO WARRANT. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGH INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED A BIT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...AN INDICATION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE. STILL ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY...ALBEIT NOT MUCH TRENDING QUICKLY TOWARD NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THIS TAF VALID PERIOD EXPECT TD BERYL TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS...AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING BY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM. A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MAINLY BROKEN MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF VFR. A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND LOWEST CEILINGS AT THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS AFTER 08Z. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ANY IFR CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TERMINAL-WIDE TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS...AND AT THE SOUTHERN-MOST TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS TD BERYL APPROACHES TOMORROW EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCE OF IFR MORNING FOG THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE ON BERYL FROM THE NHC. NEAR TERM FORECAST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. BERYL...NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...MOVING UP THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND JUST OFF OF CAPE FEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEAR TERM...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS REACHING AROUND 6 FT WILL COVER THE THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1800 UTC. A QUICK HITTING BELT OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS INTO GALE CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS HOWEVER NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BENIGN WIND FIELDS AND SEAS THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAIN EVENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXACT TIMING STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE BUT FOR NOW WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET EARLY TO AROUND FIVE FEET EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SEAS SATURDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #514371 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:50 AM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 647 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES TDY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NE OVR SOUTHERN GA AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTER A PRTLY CLDY AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN HRS (ESPECIALLY OVR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND TROPICAL MSTR SURGING NORTHWARD. TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75"...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW LATE TNGT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WED AFTN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN ISSUE W/ ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TNGT TRANSITIONING TO JUST CHC POPS WED OVR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES (AND STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE) WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED W/ R+ TO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NE NC AS THAT IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGGED. HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CLOUDINESS DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S. QPF REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF BERYL AND TIMING W/ THE COLD FRNT/UPR TROUGH...1-2 INCHES MOST COMMON ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. DRYING CONDITIONS THU...W/ DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER. PER HPC...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO EURO. HAVE PCPN BEGINNING IN WRN PORTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PCPN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO THE PCPN. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND FOR BETTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO 85 COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 60 TO 65. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LO END MVFR CIGS (1000-1500FT) HV DVLPD INTO RGN DURG PAST HR OR TWO...GENLY FM SE VA INTO CSTL NE NC. XPCG MVFR CIGS TO CONT INTO MID MRNG B4 BREAKING. GENLY VFR LT MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THOUGH INCRSG PROB CNVTN THIS EVE AND TNGT AS CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W...AND LO PRES TRACKS NE NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS. HI PROB FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND SHRAS/TSRAS OVR RGN FM ABT 04-06Z/30 THROUGH ABT 18-20Z/30...B4 PCPN SHIFTS TO THE CST. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. && .MARINE... HI PRES OFFSHR...RESULTING IN SSW WNDS AVGG ABT 15 KT RIGHT NOW. PREVAILING LLVL FLO WL RMN FM THE SSW THROUGH TNGT. WNDS BCM MR VRBL ON WED AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA AND LO PRES PASSES ENE NR THE ERN NC CST. HIGHEST SPDS (TO PSBLY 20-25 KT) INVOF NE NC CSTL WTRS...ELSW SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. A SCND CDNFT CROSSES THE WTRS ERY THU. COMBO LO PRES TRACKING OUT TO SEA AND PD OF LLVL CAA POST CDFNT WL BRING A SURGE IN SPDS FM THE NNW LT WED NGT INTO THU. KEEPING SPDS BLO SCA FOR NOW. WNDS BCM E THEN SSE ON FRI...AND INCRS IN SPD AHD OF NEXT CDFNT APPROACHING LT FRI. SCAS RMNG UP FOR NRN 3 OCN ZONES...THOUGH SEAS XPCD TO BE MARGINAL (AVG ARND 5 FT). PSBL SCAS NEEDED FOR SRN OCN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS OFF ERN NC. HIGHEST SPDS W/ THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN OFFSHR/IN ESE QUADRANT. MONITOR TPC FOR INFO/TRACK OF BERYL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #514372 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:50 AM 29.May.2012) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 640 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PULL BERYL FARTHER UP THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES TDY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NE OVR SOUTHERN GA AND A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTER A PRTLY CLDY AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN HRS (ESPECIALLY OVR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND TROPICAL MSTR SURGING NORTHWARD. TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75"...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN FROM THE SSW LATE TNGT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WED AFTN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN ISSUE W/ ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TNGT TRANSITIONING TO JUST CHC POPS WED OVR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES (AND STILL LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE) WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED W/ R+ TO THE GRIDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NE NC AS THAT IS THE AREA WITH THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGGED. HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CLOUDINESS DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S. QPF REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF BERYL AND TIMING W/ THE COLD FRNT/UPR TROUGH...1-2 INCHES MOST COMMON ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...AND PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH TO THE NW OF RICHMOND BUT ANY CHANGE IN TRACK COULD ALTER THIS QUITE A BIT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. DRYING CONDITIONS THU...W/ DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER. PER HPC...FOLLOWED CLOSE TO EURO. HAVE PCPN BEGINNING IN WRN PORTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PCPN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO THE PCPN. IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND FOR BETTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO 85 COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 60 TO 65. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PREVAILING WNDS FM THE SSW WHICH CLIMO SUGGESTS WILL LMT LIFR/IFR PTNTL THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL HRS. NO EVIDENCE AS OF YET FOR ANY LWR LVL CLDNS...W/ SFC DEWPTS IN THE U60S TO L70S WL RMN CONCERNED FOR PSBL MVFR CIGS AFT 09-10Z (WHICH IS ALSO CLIMO FAVORED PROB OVR ANY IFR/LIFR CONDS). AFT THAT...GENLY VFR TDA...THOUGH INCRSG PROB CNVTN THIS EVE AND TNGT AS CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W...AND LO PRES TRACKS NE NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS. HI PROB FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND SHRAS/TSRAS OVR RGN FM 06Z/30 THROUGH ABT 18Z/30...B4 PCPN SHIFTS TO THE CST. A RETURN OF VFR W/ HIGH PRES THU. && .MARINE... HI PRES OFFSHR...RESULTING IN SSW WNDS AVGG ABT 15 KT RIGHT NOW. PREVAILING LLVL FLO WL RMN FM THE SSW THROUGH TNGT. WNDS BCM MR VRBL ON WED AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA AND LO PRES PASSES ENE NR THE ERN NC CST. HIGHEST SPDS (TO PSBLY 20-25 KT) INVOF NE NC CSTL WTRS...ELSW SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. A SCND CDNFT CROSSES THE WTRS ERY THU. COMBO LO PRES TRACKING OUT TO SEA AND PD OF LLVL CAA POST CDFNT WL BRING A SURGE IN SPDS FM THE NNW LT WED NGT INTO THU. KEEPING SPDS BLO SCA FOR NOW. WNDS BCM E THEN SSE ON FRI...AND INCRS IN SPD AHD OF NEXT CDFNT APPROACHING LT FRI. SCAS RMNG UP FOR NRN 3 OCN ZONES...THOUGH SEAS XPCD TO BE MARGINAL (AVG ARND 5 FT). PSBL SCAS NEEDED FOR SRN OCN ZONES WED AFTN INTO WED NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS OFF ERN NC. HIGHEST SPDS W/ THAT SYS XPCD TO RMN OFFSHR/IN ESE QUADRANT. MONITOR TPC FOR INFO/TRACK OF BERYL. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS |
| #514369 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:41 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 632 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT OVER COASTAL CONNECTICUT...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SW CT COAST BACK SE TO NEAR MONTAUK POINT...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THIS FRONT UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AROUND THEN A COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND THE FRONT LIFTING N ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE AND S CENTRAL CT AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD. HRRR IS NOW SUGGESTING WE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. DID NOT GO WITH POPS QUITE AS LOW AS HRRR...DID BLEND IN NAM AND SREF 3-HR POPS AND 6Z MAV/0Z MET POPS. HOWEVER...RESULT IS THE SAME...NO FORECASTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS VERY LOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF SHEAR...ONLY 15-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 800 J/KG OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 15-25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR - MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 11000 FT MINIMIZING THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE LOW VALUES OF SHEAR ALSO HELP KEEP BULK RICHARDSON VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50...AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE 50...PROMOTING MAINLY PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC. HAVE PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN FOR AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING A IT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CITY ZONES. FOR NOW HAVE NO BASIS TO CHANGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE EVEN GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR THE COAST...850 HPA INLAND...WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NYC METRO GETTING TO OR RIGHT ABOVE 90. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG REMAINS ACROSS SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. KGON AND KBDR ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE LIFR OR IFR AT BEST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE ISP COULD FALL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. NYC METRO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATE BY 14Z. GENERALLY VFR TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL MENTION JUST SHRA FOR NOW...HOWEVER THREAT OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION ANY TIMING IN THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z...COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHEAST WINDS...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... UPDATED FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THOUGH SEAS STILL COMING UP SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...EVEN WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVEWATCH - SEE BELOW. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340. && $$ |
| #514367 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:38 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 625 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TRAINING BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ESPECIALLY FOR CITRUS COUNTY...WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONTINUOUS RAIN HAS FALLEN. SOME SPOTS HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS BAND IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS EACH DAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT LAYING OUT ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY LATER SUNDAY. SURFACE FOCUS ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THIS ENHANCEMENT...AND WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR RAIN CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST). THE ADDED SYNOPTIC SUPPRESSION WOULD ALSO LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT WELL MIXED LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS. WATCHING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE THREATENING KTPA/KPIE AFTER 10Z AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. THIS BAND AS BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...SO IF IT DOES SET UP ON PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE REVISED FOR THESE TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE... KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 14Z TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL MOVE OUT TO SEA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20 FMY 93 74 92 73 / 40 20 30 20 GIF 91 73 92 73 / 50 20 40 20 SRQ 88 74 89 74 / 40 20 30 20 BKV 90 71 91 69 / 60 30 30 20 SPG 87 79 89 77 / 50 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS- HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ |
| #514366 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:14 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 0600 AM EDT UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF FAIRLY STRONG TSTMS MOVING EAST INTO NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM ERN QB AT ABOUT 45 MPH. WITH LESS FAVORABLE ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA COMPARED TO THE W AND SPCLY OVR QB...THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APCH THE NB BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO. EVEN SO...WE DID ISSUE AN SPS FOR LOCALIZED SMALL HAIL... WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE STORMS AS THEY RACE ACROSS THE FA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE BACKWARD AND FORWARD MOVG CORFIDI VECTORS RATED AT 35 TO 60 MPH RESPECTIVELY. FOR NOW...WE SEE NO NEED TO INTRODUCE ENHANCED TSTMS WORDING ELEMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TDY... GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY OBSERVED PULSE-UP OF STORMS. OTHERWISE...WE LOADED LATEST 09-10Z OBSVD TEMPS AND MERGED HRLY TEMPS TO FCST HI TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN. ORGNL DISC: INTERMITTENT SHWRS WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA FROM QB AS A SLOW MOVG SFC LOW AND WARM OCCLUSION APCH TDY AND TNGT. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH PDS...AND ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM40...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY...EVEN THOUGH TSTMS WILL NOT ALWAYS BE PRESENT IN THE FA DURG THE ENTIRETY OF BOTH PDS...THEY ARE SUBJECT TO OCCURRING AT ALMOST ANYTIME...SO WE INCLUDE A CHC OF TSTMS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THRU BOTH PDS. WHATS LEFT OF THE ELEVATED CAPE ALG WITH SHWR CVRG DIMINISHES BY SUNRISE WED WITH THE APCH OF THE WARM OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS WERE A LITTLE QUICKER TO BRING THE BACK EDGE OF SIG QPF OUT OF THE FA DURG THE WED 06-12Z...SINCE THEY ARE MOVING THE OCCLUSION A LITTLE FASTER EWRD DURG THIS PD. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE TRICKY...SINCE A SIG BREAK BETWEEN SHWRS AND ANY BREAKS IN CLD CVR COULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING ABV LOW FCST HI TEMPS...BASED ON LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING AND CONTINUOUS THICK LOW CLD AND SHWR PRESENCE. IT`S TO DIFFICULT TO SECOND GUESS THE GOING FCST OF HI TEMPS ATTM...SO IT REMAINS UNCHGD THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY OTHER CHG WAS TO POST TNGTS FCST LOWS...WHICH ARE NOT MUCH COOLER THAN TDY`S HI TEMPS...NO LATER THAN MDNGT WITH RISING 925 MB TEMPS LATE TNGT RESULTING IN SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN THE ERLY PRE-DAWN HRS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BURNING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO A WARM DAY. HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BY OVER 10 DEGREES F AND STILL MAY BE TOO LOW. H850 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 80S IN THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS HEATING...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS BANGOR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN ZONES 1 AND 2 WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 60S...BUT FROM MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD UPPER TROF AND THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAKES ADDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AN EASY CHOICE...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COOL AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN TO NEAR 40F IN THE ALLAGASH AND UPPER 40S ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE DOWN EAST COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON EARLY SATURDAY AND THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN ZONES. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE STATE AND KEEP SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A 70F READING IN THE SJV. PRECIP WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT SLOWLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE A RISK DOWN EAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY SO CLOUDINESS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN TO IFR BY EVENING IN LOW CLDNSS...SHWRS AND FOG AND AS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MOVES INTO THE FA FROM THE W AND SRLY SFC WINDS FROM OFF THE ATLC UNDERCUTS THIS AIR. LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DOWN EAST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG. RAIN SHOWERS RETURN NORTH OF HUL THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS BGR AND BHB WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. IFR RETURNS LATE SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INCREASING S WINDS AND FETCH LENGTH WILL BRING CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER MZS LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE...BUT STABLE SFC TO BL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. KEPT WV HTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE... WITH EV HTS XPCTED TO MAX OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE BY ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE...RICH LLVL TROP DEWPOINTS IN CONTACT WITH THE WATERS LATER TDY INTO TNGT WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER VSBYS BLO 1 NM. SHORT TERM: FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN |
| #514365 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 AM 29.May.2012) AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 450 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... PCPN THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE NW DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT..BUT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE LINGERING OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS FEATURE AS WE STILL SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT/ SET TO MIX DOWN TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR NEXT BEST/DECENT CHCS OF PCPN SHOULD BE THURS AS MODELS (NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT) DRAW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PREVIOUS- LY ADVERTISED LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (LFQ) EXPECTED TO HELP PRO- DUCE A LINE OF TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND PUSH IT ACROSS SE TX. DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRAS DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. DRIER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO KEEP THINGS QUIET DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FORM- ING BY NEXT TUES/WEDS WITH THE SEABREEZE BEING THE FOCUS OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVE POPS. 41 && .MARINE... THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 NEARSHORE AND 10-15 OFFSHORE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR RED RIVER AND INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SETX LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE FLOW TO WARRANT SCEC AND PROBABLY SCA BY THURSDAY SUNRISE FOR WINDS AND SEAS NEARING 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. 45 && .AVIATION... SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT CXO/LBX. DEBRIS CI FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS (WHICH 00Z MODELS DIDN`T CATCH ON TO) MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE IAH AREA NORTHWARD. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 72 95 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 93 72 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 87 77 88 78 86 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514364 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:42 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 437 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1005MB LOW OR REMNANT LOW OF TD BERYL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO...TROUGH AXIS FROM WISCONSIN TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS WERE 1.6 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.62 INCH AT JACKSON. GFS INITIALIZED A MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERYL TO NORTHWEST GULF TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO MEMPHIS. IN ADDITION...A DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. && .DISCUSSION... WESTERLY WILL FINALLY ESCORT BERYL EAST THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BUT LIGHT. THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRACK EAST PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER HEATING YIELDING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...5H TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE FROM -6C TO -11C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH PW VALUES 1.5 INCHES AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST CONUS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND BRINGING THE MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY RATHER THAN PREDAWN FRIDAY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ISOTACH ANALYSIS FROM GFS SHOWED A JET MAX OF 80 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST MONTANA TO THE AKLATEX ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...LINE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...QUICKLY SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN SOUTH FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT MONDAY. && .MARINE... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TODAY AS WELL. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG ISSUE. BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY BUT OVERALL BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI BUT COULD STALL RIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TAKING OVER. 13/MH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND COULD EFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 13/MH && DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...NONE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 66 91 70 / 10 10 10 20 BTR 92 70 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 ASD 92 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 MSY 91 73 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 GPT 91 71 88 72 / 20 10 20 10 PQL 94 69 91 70 / 10 10 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514363 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:23 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 515 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TRAINING BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ESPECIALLY FOR CITRUS COUNTY...WHERE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST CONTINUOUS RAIN HAS FALLEN. SOME SPOTS HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS BAND IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS EACH DAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT WELL MIXED LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS. WATCHING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE THREATENING KTPA/KPIE AFTER 10Z AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. THIS BAND AS BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...SO IF IT DOES SET UP ON PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN A MORE PESSIMISTIC TAF FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE REVISED FOR THESE TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE... KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 14Z TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL MOVE OUT TO SEA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20 FMY 93 74 92 73 / 40 20 30 20 GIF 91 73 92 73 / 50 20 40 20 SRQ 88 74 89 74 / 40 20 30 20 BKV 90 71 91 69 / 60 30 30 20 SPG 87 79 89 77 / 50 20 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS- HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ |
| #514361 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 405 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN T.D. BERYL`S MOVEMENT TO THE NE TODAY...GRADUALLY PUSHING THE CYCLONE EVEN FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION...THUS DECREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY WHILE MLCAPES RISE TO 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE HI-RES GUIDANCE (NSSL WRF, SPC 4KM WRF, AND THE MOB 3KM WRF-ARW) ALL SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND PROPAGATING/DEVELOPING SE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SHOWING 30% POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACH 9 C/KM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT AN INVERTED V PROFILE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT. PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL HINGE ON THE UPSTREAM EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVES. ONE MORE NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVE OVER NE TX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGING...AS MUCH WILL HINGE ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 1000-850 MB LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A FEW METERS LOWER WHICH WOULD ONLY CORRESPOND TO 1-2 DEGREES COOLER. MID 90S ARE FORECAST OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WHICH IS NEAR GUIDANCE WELL INLAND...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOWER 90S EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. MUGGY LOWS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. 34/JFB WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER TROF INTO THE SOUTHEAST...MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE HIGH LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF STORMS. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF BERYL HAVING LIFTED OUT...SOME WEAK LIFT POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK PRESSURE TROF THAT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL ZONE FOR ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS. /10 .LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE FRONT EASES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CHANCES OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE REDUCED AS A RESULT. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND THERE...AS SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...COULD BE WAKING UP SATURDAY/SUNDAY AM WITH LOWS FROM 60 TO 65. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF A RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES HEATING BACK UP. /10 && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS ANYTIME FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT IN DURATION. 34/JFB && .MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED W-SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THAT WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WED...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...AND MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 34/JFB && .FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM HUMIDITY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 40% OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER 50% RANGES ALONG THE BEACHES. DEEP MIXED LAYERS WILL RESULT IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DAILY DISPERSION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN...AT TIMES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVELS. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 95 71 93 71 / 30 30 20 20 PENSACOLA 95 75 94 75 / 30 30 10 20 DESTIN 92 76 90 76 / 20 20 10 20 EVERGREEN 94 68 96 70 / 30 30 20 30 WAYNESBORO 95 67 94 68 / 30 30 20 30 CAMDEN 95 68 96 69 / 30 30 20 30 CRESTVIEW 95 69 95 71 / 30 30 20 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514358 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 446 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT OVER COASTAL CONNECTICUT...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SW CT COAST BACK SE INTO THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THIS FRONT UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN A COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND THE FRONT LIFTING N ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF SW CT AND COASTAL SE CT. WILL NOT INCLUDE EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR NOW...AS THE AREA IMPACTED IS VERY SMALL. ALL MODELS OTHER THAN THE HRRR AND ECMWF ARE OVER DOING THE EXTENT OF SHRA/TSTM EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE OUTLIERS IN THIS CASE...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO MID MORNING. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS VERY LOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF SHEAR...ONLY 15-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 800 J/KG OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 15-25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR - MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 11000 FT MINIMIZING THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE LOW VALUES OF SHEAR ALSO HELP KEEP BULK RICHARDSON VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50...AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE 50...PROMOTING MAINLY PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC. HAVE PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN FOR AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR THE COAST...850 HPA INLAND...WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NYC METRO GETTING TO OR RIGHT ABOVE 90. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG REMAINS ACROSS SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. KGON AND KBDR ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE LIFR OR IFR AT BEST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE ISP COULD FALL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. NYC METRO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATE BY 14Z. GENERALLY VFR TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL MENTION JUST SHRA FOR NOW...HOWEVER THREAT OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION ANY TIMING IN THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. AFTER 14Z...COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHEAST WINDS...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514353 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 436 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON THIS LATE MAY NIGHT...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S... AND WINDS ON LAND ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS... WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CENTERED INLAND ALONG THE FLORIDA- GEORGIA BORDER. ALOFT...A SMALL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO A PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE YUCATAN. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AVERAGE MOISTURE ALONG WITH NO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND GENTLE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW WILL BE TOO SOUTHERLY TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD REVERSE CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP TODAY...YET THE FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO BE TOO WEAK TONIGHT TO ALLOW CUBAN CONVECTION TO REACH NORTH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FOR THESE PERIODS...EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS WHERE SCATTERED 30 PERCENT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN OUR AREA DICTATES CONTINUING WITH LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT) POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A FAIRLY DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH THE LATEST GFS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS OUR REGION...AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY OVERHEAD AT TIMES AS WELL. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED 50 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF AND THEREFORE INDICATES LESS DEEP MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA WITH LESS LARGE SCALE LIFT EVIDENT. THE EXPERIMENTAL EC MOS POPS ARE THUS QUITE A BIT LOWER...ONLY RUNNING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INDICATED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS TRANSITION WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...RETURNING US TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF MESOSCALE-DRIVEN CONVECTION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING (AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO) LOW CHANCE POPS. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BREEZES HAVE KICKED UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE C-MAN SITES RUNNING NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL AVERAGE FROM 160 TO 180 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 30 30 MARATHON 90 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514352 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 29.May.2012) AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 427 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER...LESS HUMID AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS NEW ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... INTO MORNING... BETTER LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW-MID LVL WARM FRNT HAS PUSHED NEWD AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA. AM FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME AN ISSUE. IT IS BELIEVED THAT SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE LOW-LVLS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PARENT TO THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE SUBSEQUENTLY SQUASHED ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVR THE RGN IN A SHORT PD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY S NH INTO THE MORNING PD. WILL BE MONITORING THE WAVE TRAIN OF CONVECTION PARENT TO THE WARM FRNT...FEEL ANY AND ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. FOCUS WILL BE UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF ANTICIPATED AROUND THE MORNING HRS FOR THAT RGN. S AND SE SHORELINES ARE IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. FOG HAS BEEN VARIABLE IN PARTS NOT MAINTAINING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT ALL TIMES. HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE OF BOTH A SPS AND DENSE FOG ADV FOR THIS EVNG. THE IMPACT OF AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED EXTENSIVELY WITHIN THE FCST THE LAST FEW FCST PACKAGES. TODAY... MID-UPR LVL RIDGE WILL EASE EWD INTRODUCING GREATER CYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AHEAD OF A TROF AXIS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS S CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRNT FROM THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRAG INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN LATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH A PRE- FRONTAL TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE WX. LOOKING FOR MODEST SWLY FLOW /ENHANCED BY LEAD SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT PARENT TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF/ CONTINUALLY ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRNT. FOR THE MIDDAY INTO AFTN PD INSTABILITY WILL MEASURE AROUND 2000 J/KG...YET WITH MINOR SHEAR AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REGISTER AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE WSW /THE GREATER SHEAR IS TO THE W COLLOCATED WITH THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRNT/. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO OUTCOMES AND SPECIFICS...IT APPEARS ATMOS WILL DESTABILIZE ACROSS PA/NY AND THE SUBSEQUENT ENERGY WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE WRN ZONES BY THE LATE AFTN HRS. WITH SHEAR REMAINING MEAGER...AM NOT CONFIDENT AS TO DISCREET CONVECTION. RATHER BELIEVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT WILL PROVIDE DEEP LYR LIFT OF THE UNSTABLE LOW-MID LVLS. INITIAL MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO BOTH THE COLD FRNT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS UP TO H8...BOTH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PSBL FOR THE WRN FCST AREAS INTO THE EVNG PD. ITS PSBL SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL IMPACT INTO THE NRN AND ERN ZONES...BUT THEN IT BECOMES A QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE MARITIME BOUNDARY LYR ADVECTED ONSHORE PER SEA-BREEZE PROCESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ENERGY PUSHES THRU THE FCST RGN. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ANTICIPATED THREATS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS /POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANTICIPATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OFFSHORE BY MORNING. THERE IS AN UNDERLYING QUESTION OF WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL SUSTAIN /AS LIKELY THE BOUNDARY LYR WILL DECOUPLE AND STABILIZE THRU THE OVRNGT PD/. THE NOCTURNAL PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORMS MAINTAINING ANY SEVERITY AS THEY COME CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM LEFT FEELING THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SURVIVE WITH THE COLD FRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARM/HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WED & A RISK OF TSTMS * COOLER/DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ARRIVES THU * NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEARS FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60HRS/12Z THU THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL POSITIONS. NEVERTHELESS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME THIS PERIOD WHICH FEATURES AN EVOLVING MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SUPPORTS A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A FEW BOUTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL WE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND APPROACH HERE...INCLUDING INCORPORATING HPC GUID. ON A SIDE NOTE THE GEFS PROJECTS THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WITH VALUES APPROACHING -2.5. THIS WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST CANADA...FAVORING TEMPERATURES AOB NORMAL HERE IN SNE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... WED... GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LINGERS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AS PWATS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT +2 STD. HOWEVER WITH MEAN TROUGH AXIS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE SURFACE FRONT FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS THE RISK FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-FIRING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING EXIST. LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONG TSTMS AS THE EC AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST MARGINAL MUCAPES OF AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. THU... SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ST. LWRNC RVR VLY. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF BERYL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER FRONT MAY NOT EXIT RI AND SOUTHEAST MA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SO A WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR PROBABLY AT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF DIURNAL CU BUT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DEEP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION. THUS DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. FRI... COULD BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER BUT MILD TEMPS AND MUCH LESS HUMID BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MORNING LOWS IN THE MU40S POSSIBLE INLAND. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND. STRONG JUNE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COOL MORNING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY AFTN. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 40S LIKELY. SEABREEZES LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN WEAK PGRAD. SAT/SUN/MON... THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION. GFS DIFFERS ON MAGNITUDE AND TIMING. SO SOMEWHAT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE HERE. GIVEN THIS AND TIME RANGE HERE WE WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...BUT BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE MON AS MEAN TROUGH AXIS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT OVERVIEW... CONFIDENT INTO MORNING THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPACT OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CIGS/FOG. SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS E OF CT RVR VLY. VSBYS 2SM OR LESS WILL AFFECT THE S SHORELINE. BOTH CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO MORNING BURNING OFF W TO E. EXPECT VFR WITH CLEARING INTO THE MIDDAY PD. INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTN AND ESP AFTER DUSK. ANTICIPATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP THRU TERMINALS 22Z-09Z WITH THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY WED MORN. IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED WITH STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO PSBL...YET LOW CONFIDENCE E OF THE CT RVR VLY. SLY FLOW BECOMING WLY IN WAKE OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. FOG ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE S/E FCST AREAS INTO LATE EVNG TUE INTO EARLY MORN WED. KBOS TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL KEEP IFR OUT OF TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. UNCERTAIN AS TO TIMING AND TSRA TOWARDS THE LATE END OF THE PD. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH SHRA AND MVFR VSBY. KBDL TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOOKING TO REMAIN VFR. SHRA AND PSBL TSRA INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND DUSK. WILL NOT MENTION TSRA FOR NOW UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER PICTURE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR/VFR AGAIN IN SCT AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SHIFTING TOWARD MVFR/VFR IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... OVERVIEW... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT /REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS/ WILL RESULT IN SWELL ACROSS THE S WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR HAZ SEAS POSTED ACCORDINGLY INTO WED MORN. IT IS DURING THE TUE NGT INTO WED PD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRNT THAT SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH ANY STORMS...GALES WILL BE PSBL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED/THU...SCT TSTMS ESP WED. SSW SWELLS FROM REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY ARRIVE LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH. FRI...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH LINGER SSW SWELLS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...SHOWERS AND LOW VSBY POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL WAVE MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL |
| #514350 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE... .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS FEEDER BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WITH KVAX/KJAX SHOWING CORE RAINS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT HAS BEGUN IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW REESTABLISHMENT OF WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE STEERING FLOW NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT SO BERYL WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE OFF THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...WHICH IS SIMILAR THE LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL DRAW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS THAT WILL BE PLACE. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SPECIFIC HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WORK FROM SOUTH-NORTH THIS MORNING WHILE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100 PERCENT LOOK APPROPRIATE THROUGH SUNSET ALONG WITH A MENTION OF RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE VARIOUS MODEL INSTABILITY PROGNOSTICATIONS...BUT THE INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES SUGGEST THE RISK FOR TSTMS WILL NOT BE OVERLY HIGH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE STEADIER RAINS WILL ARRIVE LAST TO THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ONGOING BY SUNSET AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL APPROACHES THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SOMETIME AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PERSIST WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINING HIGHEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COAST AND THE AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOLID RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RESIDUAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND BERYL...COMBINED WITH BETTER INSOLATION UNDER SCATTERING SKY COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE NOTABLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY. EXPECT A HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHERN SECTIONS UNDER LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO AROUND 90 DEGREES SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THURSDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SPAWNING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S. FRIDAY...BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE FRONT COULD CROSS THE COASTLINE NO EARLIER THAN THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PREFER TO CAP POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY PEAKING AROUND 90 DEGREES...JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY DUE TO THICKER SKY COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND PREFER TO REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEN INDICATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SATURDAY...WITH POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY COOLING TREND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BE SUBTLE AT BEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERNIGHT...RAINS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY SPIRAL ONSHORE AND TIMING THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE UNTIL STEADIER RAINS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO BE PERIODIC OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT WHEN SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS BECOMES MAXIMIZED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AT KSAV THIS MORNING AND EVEN AT KCHS LATER TODAY AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS BACK UP THE SE U.S. COAST. PERIODIC CIGS/VSBYS IN MVFR RANGE WITH SOME IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN SAVANNAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AT KCHS DURING THE LATTER 6 HOURS OF THE 06Z CYCLE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 06Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL MEANDERS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH 15-20 KT MORE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE TODAY...RANGING FROM 4-5 FT OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINING MARINE LEGS. THE GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE WATERS OFF BEAUFORT COUNTY SEAS SEAS WILL TONIGHT...VERY CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST AS THE EXACT TRACK OF BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GET. CURRENT NHC/MODEL TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INLAND FROM THE COAST AND KEEPING A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE AS BERYL MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KT. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...15-20 KT LOOKS COMMON WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH 6 FT SEAS REACHING THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BY SUNSET. WILL INITIALIZE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONCURRENT WITH THE OTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BERYL WILL STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING ADVISORIES SHOULD COME TO AN END NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. RIP CURRENTS...ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LINGERING WIND AND SWELL WAVE GENERATED BY BERYL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK WILL BE BORDERLINE HIGH RISK FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES WERE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO BERYL. HOWEVER OPTED TO KEEP THE RISK MODERATE FOR NOW PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE. THE NEED FOR A HIGH RISK WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE CYCLONE ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH AN AXIS OF VERY TROPICAL AIR FEATURING PWATS AROUND 2.40 INCHES BECOMING SITUATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE EXTREMELY RARE FOR LATE MAY AND RANK ROUGHLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE PER KCHS RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. NEAR RECORD PWATS COUPLED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 3-4 IN/HR IN THE BANDS OF MOST INTENSE RAIN. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...THE INTENSITY OF THESE RAINFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 1-HOUR AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. RAIN RATES COULD GO EVEN HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS CORE RAINS TRY AND REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDES DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101- 114>119-137>141. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ |
| #514348 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 414 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TODAY...TD BERYL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR VALDOSTA AND WILL START A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAINBANDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH HEAVIEST THIS MORNING IN BANDS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...THEN IN ANY EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL S/SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN BELOW WINDY CONDITIONS EXCEPT GUSTY IN HEAVIER SQUALLS...FOR THIS REASON WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SE GA AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE FL. STILL EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AND FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...AS TD BERYL DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING THE EVENING OVER SE GA AND THE ATLC COAST WILL FADE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FLOOD WATCH ENDING TIME AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. ONE LAST TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER FROM THE ATLC ACRS NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE AREAS ACRS INLD SE GA DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HEAT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO RE-IGNITE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY...BUT OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY. THURSDAY...WEAK SW FLOW WILL SET UP AS WEAK RIDGE SETS UP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND TO KICK OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 90S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRI/SAT...HOT WITH SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S BOTH DAYS. SUN/MON...ENOUGH DRY AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20% AND WILL KEEP THEM SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NWLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. && .AVIATION...RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING MVFR...SHRA...AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AND HAVE VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TD BERYL WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN WEST AS BERYL DEPARTS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERAL SWLY FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL HOLD FROM THU-SAT WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: WITH A TREND IN THE WINDS TOWARD A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RIP CURRENT RISK TO DROP TO MODERATE WITH BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 67 92 70 / 100 70 40 50 SSI 80 71 90 74 / 100 90 30 40 JAX 83 70 92 70 / 100 80 40 40 SGJ 85 72 90 72 / 90 80 40 40 GNV 84 70 93 70 / 100 70 40 30 OCF 86 71 93 71 / 90 60 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY- COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU- PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON- BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN- COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE- WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514344 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA. APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED PWAT AND MID LEVEL THTE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOIST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AND CORRESPONDING PWAT FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. && .MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. APPROACH OF FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF SCEC CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. SHARPENING TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER WEST TEXAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 91 71 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 KBPT 92 71 90 75 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 KAEX 94 67 95 70 89 / 0 0 10 10 30 KLFT 93 68 93 72 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514347 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:23 AM 29.May.2012) AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 415 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012 .Synopsis and Short Term)...(Now through Thursday)...Still monitoring the very slow NW Progress of slowly weakening Tropical Depression Beryl, which at 11 PM EDT on Monday Evening was located about 60 miles to the E-NE Tallahassee, and was moving NW around 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph, and the Bulk of the Convection has either contracted back inward towards the center of Beryl, or expanded into a new band of convection well off towards its south and east. This band has been impacting the I-75 Corridor from Gainesville to Ocala FL during the past few hours with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. In our CWA, the heaviest, but fairly small band continues to dump on the order of 2 inches per hour plus over central portions of Lafayette County, where a Flood Warning remains in effect. However, calls to dispatch have not resulted in a any significant reports. For Today, Beryl is forecast to turn to the north, then accelerate to the northeast to a position close to the coast near the GA/SC border by this evening, before possibly regenerating back into a Tropical Storm off the North Carolina Coast on Wednesday Night. For our Region today, although the Bulk of the heavy rain should be over, a combination of the Proximity of Beryl (which will still be moving very slowly away from the CWA) along with some increased daytime heating, should allow for at least Sct-Nmrs showers and thunderstorms to re-develop across the region today, with the greatest rain chances to the east, where Beryl will still be able to tap into ample low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. However, unless some significant banding is able to regenerate over the SE FL Big Bend, will likely either cancel or allow the current Flood Watches and Warnings to expire this morning. On Wednesday, as Beryl pulls further away from our region, a lingering Trof of Low Pressure may serve as a focusing mechanism for at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region, but these should be mainly during the afternoon and evening hours after plenty of heating allows high temps to soar back into the 90s. By Thursday, the next Synoptic Scale feature in the form of an Upper Level Low will be diving southeastward from the Rockies into the Northern MS Valley Region, and this may help push the lingering trof near the Gulf Coast off to the North as a Warm Front. Therefore, we would expect highest Pops to the N and E, and further to the SW, another very hot day across the region with Highs possibly climbing back into the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday) The next trough is still forecast to affect the area on Friday into Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. The 00z model suite is not in great agreement with respect to the strength of this trough as it approaches the area. Somewhat strong 30-40 knot deep layer shear values for this time of year clip the northwest part of the forecast area late on Friday on the 29/00z GFS. It`s not entirely impossible that we may see a few stronger storms over the northwest parts of the area with this frontal passage, but confidence in any one scenario is currently low with varying model solutions. High pressure is expected to build in behind the front for the second half of the weekend with no mention of PoPs after that front through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Beryl will continue to impact the eastern terminals today with MVFR/IFR cigs and areas of rain. Prevailing cigs are expected to improve to VFR at KTLH during the afternoon hours as Beryl slowly moves away. KVLD may see IFR conditions linger through most of the morning with conditions improving to MVFR during the afternoon. && .MARINE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the departing Tropical Depression Beryl will gradually be tapering off from west to east today, with just a few lingering showers and storms due a trough of low pressure north of the Marine Area into Wednesday and Thursday. Winds and seas will be slightly elevated out of the west today through Wednesday, though no headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no current fire weather concerns with abundant low level moisture in place through the remainder of the week. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 69 94 71 91 / 50 20 20 20 20 Panama City 89 75 92 75 87 / 30 30 20 20 20 Dothan 94 70 96 71 92 / 30 20 20 20 30 Albany 89 70 94 69 92 / 50 20 20 20 30 Valdosta 85 67 94 69 90 / 80 30 20 20 30 Cross City 85 71 92 71 90 / 80 30 30 20 30 Apalachicola 87 76 90 74 86 / 40 30 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. GA...None. FL...None. GM...None. $$ |
| #514343 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 29.May.2012) AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 408 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS FAVORED FOR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AM USING IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN YESTERDAY. A BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF THE 00Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUE...TIME SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS FROM TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STRONG LIFT ARRIVES AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A VERY MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW WILL BE BROUGHT IN AHEAD OF BERYL AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE SE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 2.25 INCHES (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST WITH TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL INLAND. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HIGHER STREAMFLOWS ACRS THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THRU WED EVE. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 AM-11 PM WED WITH SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST TO SEE THE HEAVY RAIN WED MORNING SHIFTING TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH BERYL WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND MINOR COASTAL/SOUNDSIDE FLOODING. CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING STORM. AS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN RAIN BANDS THAT CUD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. BERYL EXITS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WED EVE AND MAY STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OFF THE NC COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACRS THE AREA BUT GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BERYL WILL BE ONGOING THRU MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS. FOR NOW KEPT THU DRY IN WAKE OF BERYL...DO HAVE BNDRY ACROSS AREA HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED. CHC POPS CONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS INIT BNDRY LIFTS N AND STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE CST SAT WITH COOLER AND MAINLY LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSS A FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S EARLY WED AS TROP DEPRESSION BERYL LIFTS NE NEAR OR JUST OFF CAROLINA CST. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF WED WHEN HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES. FRONT WILL LINGER IN AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH POSS SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ESPCLY THU NIGHT. MORE SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI AND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME OCNL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATER SAT WITH VFR IN ITS WAKE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 315 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE REMNANTS OF BERYL TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET NORTH TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY WED OVER SRN AND CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS TIER IN ADVANCE OF TROP DEPRESSION BERYL. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AS BERYL PASSES JUST OFF THE CST THRU WED EVE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING IN THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOR THE OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT AS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM BERYL WITH SOUNDS/NRN WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AS BERYL EXITS WED NIGHT INTO THU WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO N AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. SRLY WINDS INCREASE FRI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA LATE...FOR NOW KEPT JUST BELOW. FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT WITH MAINLY WRLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...NONE. && $$ |
| #514331 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 29.May.2012) AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 411 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT OVER COASTAL CONNECTICUT...WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SW CT COAST BACK SE INTO THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THIS FRONT UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN A COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND THE FRONT LIFTING N ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO INCLUDE ALL OF SW CT AND COASTAL SE CT. WILL NOT INCLUDE EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR NOW...AS THE AREA IMPACTED IS VERY SMALL. ALL MODELS OTHER THAN THE HRRR AND ECMWF ARE OVER DOING THE EXTENT OF SHRA/TSTM EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE OUTLIERS IN THIS CASE...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO MID MORNING. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR MAINLY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA/TSRA BECOMING LIKELY N AND W OF NYC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY IS VERY LOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF SHEAR...ONLY 15-25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 800 J/KG OR LESS AND LOW LEVEL JET OF 15-25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR - MINIMIZING THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 11000 FT MINIMIZING THE SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE LOW VALUES OF SHEAR ALSO HELP KEEP BULK RICHARDSON VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50...AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE 50...PROMOTING MAINLY PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF NYC. HAVE PUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN FOR AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975 HPA NEAR THE COAST...850 HPA INLAND...WITH MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. FORECASTING VALUES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE NYC METRO GETTING TO OR RIGHT ABOVE 90. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 60S...EXPECT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THIS COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BULK SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT...FORECAST TO 35-45 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20-40 LATE. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES BEFORE THE 700 HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS. ALSO WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 OVERNIGHT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. FOR LOWS USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE...BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS YIELDED LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES CATCHES UP TO/MERGES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. WITH BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85-90 KT 300 HPA JET...DO HAVE A BETTER CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THAN TODAY...WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM 20-40 - SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE SUPER-CELLS. HOWEVER...WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A LOW- MID LEVEL CAP...THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME...AND THUS COULD REMAIN DRY. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA ACROSS THE INTERIOR...950 HPA NEAR THE COAST...MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE RESULT IS HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS NOT INITIATED...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP CLOSE TO TODAY/S READINGS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH TO START THE PERIOD. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLOWING THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. THE IMPACT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE A FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST BY THU MORNING MORNING AND WITH BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON WED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...NHC FORECASTS TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THIS SHOULD MAINLY PRESENT THE REGION WITH A SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ON THU BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BERYL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI...WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A PHASING OF PAC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEEKS END. MODELS DIVERGE IN EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TIMING OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACT ON THE REGION. ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...SO KEPT FRI DRY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN EC WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SAT. INSTABILITY EXTREMELY LIMITED FRI NIGHT SO HAVE EXCLUDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW RUMBLES FROM MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS BROAD TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY. STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS MOVES REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. KGON CONTINUES TO OBSERVE LIFR OR IFR AT BEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS KISP GOING DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MANY TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. NYC METRO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. FOR TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST...WHEREAS WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. .WED...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. .WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING...VFR. .FRI AFTERNOON-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE... AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 10 AM. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGH...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT SEAS TO TONIGHT. BEFORE THEN...THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE NY BIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON ALL WATERS. COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG MARINE LAYER THOUGH...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MIX DOWN. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT 5 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVER ESTIMATING OF WAVE HEIGHTS BY WAVEWATCH - INCLUDING IN A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHERE IT CALLED FOR 5-6 FT SEAS ON THEY NEVER GOT ABOVE 4 FT...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO PUT ONE UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL APPROACH 5 FT THU NIGHT/FRI AS THE REMNANT LOW OF BERYL PASSES WELL TO THE S AND E. UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP PUSHING SEAS ABOVE CRITERIA SO HAVE KEPT THEM JUST BELOW FOR NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRI NIGHT BUT AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...15-20 KT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS THROUGH SAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SAT AND SUN. && .HYDROLOGY... CURRENTLY FORECASTING A BASIN AVERAGE OF AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH+ POSSIBLE. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS A RESULT. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF STRONGER STORMS DO TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MALOIT |
| #514330 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:20 AM 29.May.2012) AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 312 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE POPS LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA. APPEARS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED PWAT AND MID LEVEL THTE. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DECENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOIST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AND CORRESPONDING PWAT FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. && .MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROA |
