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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #514604 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:23 PM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1012 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...TROPICAL RAINS COMING TO AN END... .UPDATE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL HAS REALLY ACCELERATED HERE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA. THE LAST OF THE RAINBANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ARE WINDING DOWN AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS MAY POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE. WILL LIKELY ADD AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. .AVIATION... DIFFICULT CEILING AND VISIBILITY FORECAST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP AS TROPICAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. RECENT RAINS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. WILL INDICATE IFR VISIBILITIES AT GNV WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOONER. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS STILL IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LEAVING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO A LOW RISK FOR TOMORROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 94 67 94 / 50 40 40 50 SSI 71 86 73 87 / 70 30 30 30 JAX 70 91 69 91 / 60 40 40 40 SGJ 71 88 72 87 / 60 40 40 40 GNV 69 92 69 92 / 60 30 30 30 OCF 71 92 70 92 / 50 30 30 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514442 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:14 PM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 209 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TD BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH A RAINBAND EXITING LAND AREAS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE BAND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD HAVE WEAK ROTATION. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOW TEMPS TNGT. FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH WEAK LIFT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING...AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE THAN THIS AFTN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. && .AVIATION... AS THE REMNANTS OF BERYL CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST TRACK CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD. BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AT KSSI...CLOSER TO THE EXITING BERYL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD VFR TONIGHT...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS BERYL EXITS TO THE NORTH THEN EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS UNDER SCEC WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW RISK WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TS BERYL WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY AND THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG OUR OTHER RIVER SITES. THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 10.7 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE FOR THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY IS 10.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 12.0 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL CREST ABOVE ACTION STAGE. ACTION STAGE FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG IS 11.0 FEET...AND FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 94 67 94 / 40 40 40 50 SSI 71 86 73 87 / 50 30 30 30 JAX 70 91 69 91 / 40 40 40 40 SGJ 71 88 72 87 / 40 40 40 40 GNV 69 92 69 92 / 40 30 30 30 OCF 71 92 70 92 / 40 30 30 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514398 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:44 AM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 932 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...BERYL BEGINNING A GRADUAL EXIT... .UPDATE... TD BERYL IS BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING SE GA. PRECIP IS DIMINISHING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-75 WITH A BAND OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CROSSING COASTAL AREAS OF SE GA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GNV. CANNOT RULE OUT SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTN AS CONDITIONS MAY DESTABILIZE. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED THIS MORNING WEST OF I-75...WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL RETAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION... RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING MVFR...SHRA...AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AND HAVE VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TD BERYL WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN WEST AS BERYL DEPARTS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERAL SWLY FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL HOLD FROM THU-SAT WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY...LOW RISK WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 67 92 70 / 100 60 40 50 SSI 81 71 90 74 / 100 70 30 40 JAX 84 70 92 70 / 100 60 40 40 SGJ 86 72 90 72 / 100 60 40 40 GNV 85 70 93 70 / 90 50 40 30 OCF 87 71 93 71 / 100 50 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON- BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN- COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE- WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
| #514348 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 29.May.2012) AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 414 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TODAY...TD BERYL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR VALDOSTA AND WILL START A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAINBANDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH HEAVIEST THIS MORNING IN BANDS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...THEN IN ANY EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL S/SW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN BELOW WINDY CONDITIONS EXCEPT GUSTY IN HEAVIER SQUALLS...FOR THIS REASON WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SE GA AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE FL. STILL EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AND FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...AS TD BERYL DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING THE EVENING OVER SE GA AND THE ATLC COAST WILL FADE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FLOOD WATCH ENDING TIME AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. ONE LAST TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER FROM THE ATLC ACRS NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE AREAS ACRS INLD SE GA DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HEAT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO RE-IGNITE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY...BUT OVERALL MUCH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN TODAY. THURSDAY...WEAK SW FLOW WILL SET UP AS WEAK RIDGE SETS UP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND TO KICK OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 90S. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRI/SAT...HOT WITH SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S BOTH DAYS. SUN/MON...ENOUGH DRY AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20% AND WILL KEEP THEM SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NWLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS HOT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. && .AVIATION...RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING MVFR...SHRA...AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AND HAVE VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TD BERYL WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN WEST AS BERYL DEPARTS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERAL SWLY FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL HOLD FROM THU-SAT WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS: WITH A TREND IN THE WINDS TOWARD A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RIP CURRENT RISK TO DROP TO MODERATE WITH BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 67 92 70 / 100 70 40 50 SSI 80 71 90 74 / 100 90 30 40 JAX 83 70 92 70 / 100 80 40 40 SGJ 85 72 90 72 / 90 80 40 40 GNV 84 70 93 70 / 100 70 40 30 OCF 86 71 93 71 / 90 60 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY- COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU- PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON- BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN- COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE- WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ |
