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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #514587 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:20 PM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 915 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE CALM. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE... ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)... IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT. && .MARINE... LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1918...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 78 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 94 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514474 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:53 PM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 351 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... CLOUD LINES PRODUCING SEVERAL BOUTS WITH WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COALESCE FROM THE ISLAND CLOUD LINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE REVERSE CLOUD LINES. THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE LOWER KEYS. FROM SATELLITE INTERROGATION THERE IS A WIND SWATH OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY AND SPREAD TOWARD KEY WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE STRAITS TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT...AND ZERO INHIBITION WITH THE MOIST AIR TRAPPED BELOW 600 MB EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CUBAN BOUNDARIES MAY MAKE THE CROSSING INTACT...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE UPDATED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR 50 PERCENT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH 30 PERCENT ON THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA AND SOME ADDED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A BETTER LIFTING MECHANISM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RETURNS WITH A MORE SEASONAL ENVIRONMENT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD LINES PRODUCING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AND SEAS ROUGH IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... THROUGH 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE EPISODES OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOUD LINE ESPECIALLY AT THE KEY WEST TERMINAL THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AWAY FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. && .CLIMATE... KEYS WEATHER DATELINE...1926...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES AND SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...WHICH STANDS 86 YEARS LATER. IN 1952 THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 91 SETTING THE RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...60 YEARS AGO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 78 87 78 86 / 20 50 30 50 MARATHON 78 89 78 88 / 20 50 30 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514401 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 948 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... TO THE NORTH OVER GEORGIA WE FIND TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL...WITH A BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH WE FIND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE OLD CUBAN BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER MIAMI DADE COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO OTHER ECHO RETURNS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE DRY AIR IS CONFINED ABOVE 600 MB THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING AND THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS KEEPING THE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. .FORECAST... ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY CLOUD LINES WILL DRIFT OFF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE DAYTIME THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MAINLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...TRAVEL NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH LITTLE DRY AIR BELOW 600 MB EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE CUBAN BOUNDARIES MAY MAKE THE CROSSING INTACT...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW...AND UPDATE IF NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DICHOTOMY IN THE LARGE SCALE LIFTING BETWEEN THE MODELS. WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS WELL. && .MARINE... LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES...WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...VARIABLE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... THROUGH 00Z/30TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .CLIMATE... KEYS WEATHER DATELINE...1926...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES AND SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST ON MAY 29TH...WHICH STANDS 86 YEARS LATER. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
| #514353 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 29.May.2012) AFDKEY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 436 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON THIS LATE MAY NIGHT...WITH RADAR DETECTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S... AND WINDS ON LAND ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS... WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CENTERED INLAND ALONG THE FLORIDA- GEORGIA BORDER. ALOFT...A SMALL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL LIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO A PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE YUCATAN. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AVERAGE MOISTURE ALONG WITH NO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND GENTLE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW WILL BE TOO SOUTHERLY TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD REVERSE CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP TODAY...YET THE FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO BE TOO WEAK TONIGHT TO ALLOW CUBAN CONVECTION TO REACH NORTH OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FOR THESE PERIODS...EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS WHERE SCATTERED 30 PERCENT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN OUR AREA DICTATES CONTINUING WITH LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT) POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A FAIRLY DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH THE LATEST GFS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS OUR REGION...AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY COME INTO PLAY OVERHEAD AT TIMES AS WELL. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED 50 PERCENT POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF AND THEREFORE INDICATES LESS DEEP MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA WITH LESS LARGE SCALE LIFT EVIDENT. THE EXPERIMENTAL EC MOS POPS ARE THUS QUITE A BIT LOWER...ONLY RUNNING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INDICATED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS TRANSITION WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...RETURNING US TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF MESOSCALE-DRIVEN CONVECTION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING (AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO) LOW CHANCE POPS. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BREEZES HAVE KICKED UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE C-MAN SITES RUNNING NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER DOUBTFUL AND HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL AVERAGE FROM 160 TO 180 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 30 30 MARATHON 90 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ |
